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Old 01-11-2017, 04:19 PM   #46
LottaKash
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Originally Posted by Cratos
I am not here to argue your beliefs or disbeliefs; enough of that rhetoric goes on in the other forums on this website.

However, a Google search should give you websites for weather.

The horse’s weight is more problematic, but it can be calculated and I think the poster, Magister Ludi have previously addressed that issue.

The poster, “Traynor” requested a collaborative effort to design software for pace analysis in horseracing.

My contribution is to assist in building the algorithms.
Cratos, with all due respect, I am not trying to argue, but more, I am trying to learn in more detail of what you have accomplished, that's all...

The horses "weight" IS still very problematic to me all the same... I must have missed the part about that when ML explained it at one time or another...

I used to take care of racehorses, and from my own observations, a horses weight wasn't much of a concern to most horsemen unless there seemed to be a health or conditioning concern...So, how does the average Joe get to know about a horse's weight before and after a race? I ask this because it is part and parcel of your very own algorithms, that's all...

As for the weather part, I know that is a very tricky thing to accurately discern...Still, I know from my own observations and experiences thru the years, that the track(s) on many days do change to one degree or another, either all day, or in certain time segments of the day...I believe this, as I have learned to do my own 4-quarter pace analysis in that regard, and have somewhat proven what I have always wanted to prove... I have found my own way a little better since viewing the changes on a quarterly basis rather than an overall time protocol. For me this is much easier in Harness Racing , because of the mostly constant 1-mile distances that the Standardbreds run on a steady and ongoing basis...The symmetry (4-quarters) of the 1-mile races makes this a lot easier to discern on what days and what parts of the race that there seems to be a distinct advantage or disadvantage to any give class or horse or depending on a horses preferred winning-running style... And I have gotten better (without computer aid, sadly) in discerning when and where these distinctions may have occurred...These days my guessing at such things has lessened, and I am getting better at utilizing these long sought after answers of variants, golden rails, and such... I do make notes on weather (temp and humidity), infield flag waves...at least on more extreme days, and extreme changes..

I am a bit jealous of your work, you could say, as sincerely, I believe that you can do what you say you can do...

About variants, and bias' and such, I just think you have another name for them...
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Old 01-11-2017, 04:57 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by JJMartin
So if I understand correctly, the calculation for surface condition is derived from weather reports. Relative humidity? I suppose wind direction and speed are also factored in. What else would contribute to this figure?
A starting point would a thorough reading of the white paper “Racing Surfaces” written together by Dr. Michael Peterson and others. This will help you understand as it did for me the impact of the surface condition on the motion of the horse during the race.

As the track’s surface becomes relatively softer, the resistance force of friction restricts the horse’s movement caused by surface deformations or by a plowing effect of the horse’s motion.

The causes of the resistive force of friction are molecular adhesion and is best captured in the calculation of the coefficient of kinetic friction.

Also, it is useful to understand that the contemporaneous characterization of the racetrack surface as being “fast’ or “slow” is folly; the track’s surface is a static entity without movement.
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Old 01-11-2017, 05:09 PM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cratos
A starting point would a thorough reading of the white paper “Racing Surfaces” written together by Dr. Michael Peterson and others. This will help you understand as it did for me the impact of the surface condition on the motion of the horse during the race.

As the track’s surface becomes relatively softer, the resistance force of friction restricts the horse’s movement caused by surface deformations or by a plowing effect of the horse’s motion.

The causes of the resistive force of friction are molecular adhesion and is best captured in the calculation of the coefficient of kinetic friction.

Also, it is useful to understand that the contemporaneous characterization of the racetrack surface as being “fast’ or “slow” is folly; the track’s surface is a static entity without movement.
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Old 01-11-2017, 05:25 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by LottaKash
Cratos, with all due respect, I am not trying to argue, but more, I am trying to learn in more detail of what you have accomplished, that's all...

The horses "weight" IS still very problematic to me all the same... I must have missed the part about that when ML explained it at one time or another...

I used to take care of racehorses, and from my own observations, a horses weight wasn't much of a concern to most horsemen unless there seemed to be a health or conditioning concern...So, how does the average Joe get to know about a horse's weight before and after a race? I ask this because it is part and parcel of your very own algorithms, that's all...

As for the weather part, I know that is a very tricky thing to accurately discern...Still, I know from my own observations and experiences thru the years, that the track(s) on many days do change to one degree or another, either all day, or in certain time segments of the day...I believe this, as I have learned to do my own 4-quarter pace analysis in that regard, and have somewhat proven what I have always wanted to prove... I have found my own way a little better since viewing the changes on a quarterly basis rather than an overall time protocol. For me this is much easier in Harness Racing , because of the mostly constant 1-mile distances that the Standardbreds run on a steady and ongoing basis...The symmetry (4-quarters) of the 1-mile races makes this a lot easier to discern on what days and what parts of the race that there seems to be a distinct advantage or disadvantage to any give class or horse or depending on a horses preferred winning-running style... And I have gotten better (without computer aid, sadly) in discerning when and where these distinctions may have occurred...These days my guessing at such things has lessened, and I am getting better at utilizing these long sought after answers of variants, golden rails, and such... I do make notes on weather (temp and humidity), infield flag waves...at least on more extreme days, and extreme changes..

I am a bit jealous of your work, you could say, as sincerely, I believe that you can do what you say you can do...

About variants, and bias' and such, I just think you have another name for them...
LottaKash,

I didn’t take your response as an affront and I apologize if I gave you that perception.

Many horseplayers take the assigned weight toted by the horse only as a “concerned metric", but it is should be taken as part of the “work load” which the horse needs to put in motion to achieve a certain velocity.

Rock Hard Ten was a larger horse than Smarty Jones and at level weight during the TC campaign Smarty Jones was the better horse.

The point I am making is that friction is a force that is created whenever the horse’s hooves with its shoes move across the track surface.

This friction always opposes the motion or attempted motion of the horse across the race track surface and is dependent on the texture of the shoes on the horse and the track surface; and the friction is also dependent on the amount of contact force (horse’s weight) pushing the two surfaces together (i.e., the normal force).
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Old 01-11-2017, 05:37 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
During my many years as an engineering design consultant for nearly 50 companies in 6 major industries I found that contributions best solved problems as opposed to criticisms.

Disagreements are always good and invited, but it is the poster, “Traynor” whom you should direct angst; he is the OP.
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Old 01-11-2017, 05:42 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Cratos
During my many years as an engineering design consultant for nearly 50 companies in 6 major industries I found that contributions best solved problems as opposed to criticisms.
Wow! Now yes, I am really impressed!

As a hint, you might find the following site interesting and helpful, give it a shot:

http://cbsg.sourceforge.net/cgi-bin/live
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Old 01-11-2017, 05:56 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Wow! Now yes, I am really impressed!

As a hint, you might find the following site interesting and helpful, give it a shot:

http://cbsg.sourceforge.net/cgi-bin/live
Per your suggestion, I took a courtesy look at the website and then put you on ignore; you can do the same to me.
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Old 01-11-2017, 06:06 PM   #53
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Per your suggestion, I took a courtesy look at the website and then put you on ignore; you can do the same to me.
Oh no! You have put my on ignore?? What a disaster!

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Old 01-11-2017, 06:09 PM   #54
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Mercy

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Old 01-13-2017, 02:03 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by traynor
Anyone interested in developing/working on developing/testing/contributing (time and effort--not money) to a collaborative pace analysis software app (FREE to anyone who wants it, even to clone/copy/steal it, otherwise known as "open source") intended to develop/increase/sharpen the user's pace analysis skills?

NOT a "horse picker" app. An app (or addition to/component of/module of an existing or other app) that creates a deeper level of understanding of pace (and how it affects race outcomes) than (whatever else is available). Something that a new or novice user can "fiddle with" for a relatively short period of time and gain insights into pace analysis that many experienced/"expert"/hardcore pace analysts lack.

Basically, I developed a pace training module some years ago for private use by a blackjack team. I intended to incorporate that module (and the improvements/upgrades/additions to that module) into a race analysis software app designed for professional use. Reality is that the software developed will not be sold. Period. The (current and future) users of that software neither need nor want "pace analysis training functionality."

The training component is based on pattern recognition and some fairly sophisticated training methodologies (used by, tested by, and (sometimes) criticized by mostly graduate students in business analysis and managerial decision making familiar with various high-end "dashboard" type decision support software). It is NOT "technically complex" from a development standpoint. It is technically complex from the standpoint of the training methodologies employed.

There has been MUCH discussion about "helping newbies and novices" that rarely seems to go much beyond the "read everything you can, practice losing for 20 years, and MAYBE you will be able to break even" school of thought. There has been an equivalent amount of discussion bemoaning the "demise" of the racing industry. I think the best way to improve the racing industry is to give the newbies/novices/potential newbies and novices a good shot at making a few bucks right out of the gate--without the endless (and often conflicting) "theories" about "conventional handicapping approaches" that do little more than overwhelm newbies, novices, and most everyone else with that which psychologists refer to as the "principle of maximum confusion" and (perhaps more eloquently) a "crazymaker."

I have a LOT of code, lots of design completed, that was written (over time) for use (not sale). It could (fairly easily) be put into a more concise form and embedded in existing software. I would be happy to help with the further design and development, provided it is ONLY embedded in or developed for FREE, open-source, no strings attached, non-commercial software until fully developed and freely available to anyone who wants it. After that, anyone who wants to embed it in commercial software is free to do so--as long as the user or prospective user realizes that it is available as a standalone app without charge.
Can you provide more detail on the intent of the licensing model would be selected? Open source doesn't typically mean someone cannot use the code for commercial purposes. Open source generally implies the work is available for both commercial and non-commercial purposes. You could probably recruit more help from persons that might want to commercialize the code with an understanding that the open source is available to everyone for non-commercial software as well. Food for thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compar...tware_licenses


Good software is defined by it's output. Do we have a set of design documents that we are starting with?
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Old 01-13-2017, 05:34 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by BCOURTNEY
Can you provide more detail on the intent of the licensing model would be selected? Open source doesn't typically mean someone cannot use the code for commercial purposes. Open source generally implies the work is available for both commercial and non-commercial purposes. You could probably recruit more help from persons that might want to commercialize the code with an understanding that the open source is available to everyone for non-commercial software as well. Food for thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compar...tware_licenses


Good software is defined by it's output. Do we have a set of design documents that we are starting with?
I think the most important consideration is being overlooked. In essence, does anyone have any worthwhile (conceptual) knowledge of the factors in pace analysis that can be used (productively) to forecast (and establish the probabilities of) the various data points generally considered relevant to "pace" in upcoming races? And has that information been objectively verified over a sufficient number of instances to determine its validity?

If yes ==> design an algorithm to train the ability to recognize that particular pattern in whatever source data is used. That is the easy part.

If no ==> keep looking.

The point is that it can be relatively easily determined that a great deal of the "conventional wisdom" about pace analysis is mostly wrong or misleading, by quantifying the particulars and applying them to a large sample of races. As long as people tend to remember when something "worked" (for them, in a few non-representative samplings that gave them a warm fuzzy) and to forget all the instances in which it didn't work (because it threatens their highly polished self-perception of being "expert handicappers") subjective experience is not especially useful in such an endeavor.

The training module I developed (with others) essentially modified the software I/we had developed to train blackjack players. The "software development" part is not that complex, nor is it that difficult. The training methodologies used are much more so. It is the content--the stuff that needs to be learned--that is complex. Especially given the caveats above in regard to "conventional wisdom" and "subjective experience."

My intent (and interest) is in enabling the skill of the individual handicapper to both recognize and effectively utilize "pace analysis" in his or her selection methods--whether those methods are by computer, by hand, or by tea leaves--rather than further disabling them by encouraging their reliance on the (in most cases pathetically inadequate) output of yet another piece of software.
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Old 01-13-2017, 06:41 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by traynor
I think the most important consideration is being overlooked. In essence, does anyone have any worthwhile (conceptual) knowledge of the factors in pace analysis that can be used (productively) to forecast (and establish the probabilities of) the various data points generally considered relevant to "pace" in upcoming races? And has that information been objectively verified over a sufficient number of instances to determine its validity?

If yes ==> design an algorithm to train the ability to recognize that particular pattern in whatever source data is used. That is the easy part.

If no ==> keep looking.

The point is that it can be relatively easily determined that a great deal of the "conventional wisdom" about pace analysis is mostly wrong or misleading, by quantifying the particulars and applying them to a large sample of races. As long as people tend to remember when something "worked" (for them, in a few non-representative samplings that gave them a warm fuzzy) and to forget all the instances in which it didn't work (because it threatens their highly polished self-perception of being "expert handicappers") subjective experience is not especially useful in such an endeavor.

The training module I developed (with others) essentially modified the software I/we had developed to train blackjack players. The "software development" part is not that complex, nor is it that difficult. The training methodologies used are much more so. It is the content--the stuff that needs to be learned--that is complex. Especially given the caveats above in regard to "conventional wisdom" and "subjective experience."

My intent (and interest) is in enabling the skill of the individual handicapper to both recognize and effectively utilize "pace analysis" in his or her selection methods--whether those methods are by computer, by hand, or by tea leaves--rather than further disabling them by encouraging their reliance on the (in most cases pathetically inadequate) output of yet another piece of software.
Traynor,

Your response is “spot on,” but many posters (including myself) will probably be skeptical about publicly revealing proprietary information.

Also without someone coordinating this effort (which I thought would be you) there will be little or no progress of your proposed collaborative development effort due to dissent posters submitting innocuous non-related posts to this thread.

I don’t mind the difference of opinions and the challenging of intellectual thought, but the submission of mindless nonsensical posts should be avoided.

Therefore, is the intent by you to continue this effort?

I ask this question because I would like to submit a real life example of what I have advocated and it can be compared against the status quo.
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Old 01-13-2017, 08:20 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by Cratos
Traynor,

Your response is “spot on,” but many posters (including myself) will probably be skeptical about publicly revealing proprietary information.

Also without someone coordinating this effort (which I thought would be you) there will be little or no progress of your proposed collaborative development effort due to dissent posters submitting innocuous non-related posts to this thread.

I don’t mind the difference of opinions and the challenging of intellectual thought, but the submission of mindless nonsensical posts should be avoided.

Therefore, is the intent by you to continue this effort?

I ask this question because I would like to submit a real life example of what I have advocated and it can be compared against the status quo.
I think we need to organize a team and define roles and establish a communication plan - that communication would need to occur outside of a PA thread, reporting could happen to the thread by the project lead. Probably first evaluate if the proposal is viable. I tend to agree with Cratos that a thread without focus and a plan will have tomatoes thrown at it. I also know that there are quite a few knowledgeable persons that desire to share general knowledge to new players to bring interest to the game and avoid the snake oil. Someone (Traynor?) can collect contact info of legitimately interested persons and assemble a potential team, cover our skills matrix, and see what everyone brings to the table and time available, and construct the project plan. Input on design issues can be collected from the PA thread as needed. Some roles would be a project lead, design lead, technical lead, development lead and testing lead, and release manager. These roles can be mutually filled by the same person in some cases, although I would recommend the testing lead remain independent. We would also need to establish up front the objectives of the outcomes, so that any algorithm(s) incorporated into the software / library meets a set of minimum criteria.

The proposal in this thread is a test of how quickly a set of anonymous persons can assemble the team to assess and analyze if this project is even possible and then if probable enough to execute on.

I will provide a skills matrix and contact info to a team lead when established.
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Old 01-13-2017, 09:28 PM   #59
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Go for it, guys. Organize, develop, sell it if you want. Please post your GitHub link so everyone can check on your progress as the project develops. I wish you the best of success in the endeavor, should anyone decide to pursue it.

It would be nice if you (occasionally) post updates of whatever insights and observations (on pace and pace analysis, and the usefulness--if any--in predicting the outcome of future races) your research has uncovered.

I lack the time (and interest) to become involved in such an endeavor.
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Old 01-13-2017, 10:33 PM   #60
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Go for it, guys. Organize, develop, sell it if you want. Please post your GitHub link so everyone can check on your progress as the project develops. I wish you the best of success in the endeavor, should anyone decide to pursue it.

It would be nice if you (occasionally) post updates of whatever insights and observations (on pace and pace analysis, and the usefulness--if any--in predicting the outcome of future races) your research has uncovered.

I lack the time (and interest) to become involved in such an endeavor.
Traynor,

Thanks for being upfront about not being able to participate due to time constraints and lack of interest.

I being part of a development group is restricted somewhat by proprietary agreement from the development a product outside of our group without permission, but I can collaborate (and I will) without violating that agreement.

Again, thanks for being upfront starting the thread.
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