Pace Analysis Software

[JJMartin]

Originally Posted by pondman

Is this really the best way to solve a problem? Just dive right into software development. Wouldn't it be wiser if you tested multiple screens? Until you can reasonably estimate the order of finish for all the horses, it's going to be a waste to start developing. In other words, does your top horse out finish you second, third, fourth, fifth...consistently throughout? Have you been able to tabulate the results and recognize that you have an edge of some kind? An edge in this game may not be that your top horse runs 1st, but how to play this game when your top horse run 4th, and your exotic pays 5,000 -1. If you've accomplished this already then you are ahead of the majority of player, but you don't need software-- other than to record your decision-- and help the system learn.

Since this is an open collaboration, it is quite possible to spark some new insights in the development process that could ultimately lead to contributing to an edge or improving roi. You never know.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by pondman

Is this really the best way to solve a problem? Just dive right into software development. Wouldn't it be wiser if you tested multiple screens? Until you can reasonably estimate the order of finish for all the horses, it's going to be a waste to start developing. In other words, does your top horse out finish you second, third, fourth, fifth...consistently throughout? Have you been able to tabulate the results and recognize that you have an edge of some kind? An edge in this game may not be that your top horse runs 1st, but how to play this game when your top horse run 4th, and your exotic pays 5,000 -1. If you've accomplished this already then you are ahead of the majority of player, but you don't need software-- other than to record your decision-- and help the system learn.

One of the interesting things about horse racing is that there has been enough natural fertilizer written (and spoken) by self-proclaimed "experts" in the past 50 years or so to sink a battleship (to paraphrase a comment attributed to Admiral Halsey to his aide on leaving the Pentagon). What I suggested is that one may be well-advised to bypass the so-called "expert opinion" and find out for himself or herself what works, what doesn't, and possibly even why that is so. Pattern recognition, not software development.

The big advantage in learning basic programming skills for a novice (or anyone else) is that she or he can readily determine how their own (or someone else's) theories are likely to work in the real world.

As I have mentioned a number of times, I think the best approach to race analysis may well be to ask the most basic question of business analysts--"Does this stuff actually mean what I/we/they think it means?" And precisely as in business analysis the most frequent answer is "no".

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by traynor

The big advantage in learning basic programming skills for a novice (or anyone else) is that she or he can readily determine how their own (or someone else's) theories are likely to work in the real world.

As I have mentioned a number of times, I think the best approach to race analysis may well be to ask the most basic question of business analysts--"Does this stuff actually mean what I/we/they think it means?" And precisely as in business analysis the most frequent answer is "no".

This is where I am at. I'm starting to work in pace figure abstractions for lack of a better word. Much like sabermetrics in the baseball world. According to my theories and observations about the way race courses play(turf vs dirt). That and methods of self process and analysis are what fascinate me most at the moment. Much of it really only starts with a few theoretical wrestling matches in your head and a desire to clarify what you are doing=looking for a better, more efficient method in all aspects. It starts with so little but eventually evolves into a realm of it's own. Fun place to be!

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by pondman

Is this really the best way to solve a problem? Just dive right into software development. Wouldn't it be wiser if you tested multiple screens? Until you can reasonably estimate the order of finish for all the horses, it's going to be a waste to start developing. In other words, does your top horse out finish you second, third, fourth, fifth...consistently throughout? Have you been able to tabulate the results and recognize that you have an edge of some kind? An edge in this game may not be that your top horse runs 1st, but how to play this game when your top horse run 4th, and your exotic pays 5,000 -1. If you've accomplished this already then you are ahead of the majority of player, but you don't need software-- other than to record your decision-- and help the system learn.

Unless you are betting from a plain entries sheet you definitely use some kind of software for you handicapping decisions as all kinds of figures, metrics, track variants, handicapping factor stats etc are products of computerized processes. Having access to custom software applied to home grown databases has always the potential to put you ahead of the curve as you can study and understand the game way better from any old fashioned pen and pencil handicapper (who again is also relying on massively used data like Beyer or Moss figures).

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by traynor

One of the interesting things about horse racing is that there has been enough natural fertilizer written (and spoken) by self-proclaimed "experts" in the past 50 years or so to sink a battleship (to paraphrase a comment attributed to Admiral Halsey to his aide on leaving the Pentagon). What I suggested is that one may be well-advised to bypass the so-called "expert opinion" and find out for himself or herself what works, what doesn't, and possibly even why that is so. Pattern recognition, not software development.

The big advantage in learning basic programming skills for a novice (or anyone else) is that she or he can readily determine how their own (or someone else's) theories are likely to work in the real world.

As I have mentioned a number of times, I think the best approach to race analysis may well be to ask the most basic question of business analysts--"Does this stuff actually mean what I/we/they think it means?" And precisely as in business analysis the most frequent answer is "no".

Traynor,

Since this is a collaborative venture I would like start the development with an understanding of accounting for the “external forces against the horse’s motion effort.”

One of the forces confronted by a horse’s motion and common to most handicappers is “surface resistance force” which is typically and incorrectly labeled “track variant.”

The following example might better explain “surface resistance force.”

Where, Surface Resistance Force = Maximum Stopping Force *Coefficient of Kinetic Friction.

Maximum Stopping Force = 546*9.8 = 5350.8 N

Coefficient of Kinetic Friction = .026

Surface Resistance Force = 5350.8*.026 = 138.50 N is the force “pushing back” against the forward motion of a horse with a mass of 546 kg (body weight + assigned weight) at a velocity of 17.5m/sec in a final time of 69 secs for 1,231m (6F).

This can be programmed into the software for all race distances with a range of final times. Furthermore, the surface resistance force can be converted into time loss due to the force.

Note: These values will change as mass, distance, and velocity changes.

[JJMartin]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Traynor,

Since this is a collaborative venture I would like start the development with an understanding of accounting for the “external forces against the horse’s motion effort.”

One of the forces confronted by a horse’s motion and common to most handicappers is “surface resistance force” which is typically and incorrectly labeled “track variant.”

The following example might better explain “surface resistance force.”

Where, Surface Resistance Force = Maximum Stopping Force *Coefficient of Kinetic Friction.

Maximum Stopping Force = 546*9.8 = 5350.8 N

Coefficient of Kinetic Friction = .026

Surface Resistance Force = 5350.8*.026 = 138.50 N is the force “pushing back” against the forward motion of a horse with a mass of 546 kg (body weight + assigned weight) at a velocity of 17.5m/sec in a final time of 69 secs for 1,231m (6F).

This can be programmed into the software for all race distances with a range of final times. Furthermore, the surface resistance force can be converted into time loss due to the force.

Note: These values will change as mass, distance, and velocity changes.

Interesting. What method would be employed to extract such a figure? Would it be similar to how the current track variant is calculated or some other method?

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Traynor,

Since this is a collaborative venture I would like start the development with an understanding of accounting for the “external forces against the horse’s motion effort.”

One of the forces confronted by a horse’s motion and common to most handicappers is “surface resistance force” which is typically and incorrectly labeled “track variant.”

The following example might better explain “surface resistance force.”

Where, Surface Resistance Force = Maximum Stopping Force *Coefficient of Kinetic Friction.

Maximum Stopping Force = 546*9.8 = 5350.8 N

Coefficient of Kinetic Friction = .026

Surface Resistance Force = 5350.8*.026 = 138.50 N is the force “pushing back” against the forward motion of a horse with a mass of 546 kg (body weight + assigned weight) at a velocity of 17.5m/sec in a final time of 69 secs for 1,231m (6F).

This can be programmed into the software for all race distances with a range of final times. Furthermore, the surface resistance force can be converted into time loss due to the force.

Note: These values will change as mass, distance, and velocity changes.

I understand that one may believe that a (very) detailed description of the past may be used as the basis for predicting the future. To what extent do you find this to be useful as a predictor? That is not a spurious or facetious question.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by JJMartin

Interesting. What method would be employed to extract such a figure? Would it be similar to how the current track variant is calculated or some other method?

Different from the current “Track Variant” method and in my opinion easily verifiable by science and statistical data.

A big plus is that the surface resistance force can (and should) be calculated very quickly and accurately on a race by race basis.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Different from the current “Track Variant” method and in my opinion easily verifiable by science and statistical data.

A big plus is that the surface resistance force can (and should) be calculated very quickly and accurately on a race by race basis.

How do you do that?

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by traynor

I understand that one may believe that a (very) detailed description of the past may be used as the basis for predicting the future. To what extent do you find this to be useful as a predictor? That is not a spurious or facetious question.

Very good question and the answer is the handicapper will have the ability to measure and quantitate surface changes in the track (turf or dirt) in near real time or at the intervals which the current weather reports are given; which is in 5-10 minutes for virtually all locales in North America.

Keep in mind that this is just one aspect of the total resistance metric, but it will readily debunk the “golden rail” theory and other auspicious claims about the track’s surface.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

How do you do that?

Math, science, and technology and I am not being "smart" to you, but MIT taught me well.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Math, science, and technology and I am not being "smart" to you, but MIT taught me well.

I figured the aforementioned 3. Was looking for a bit more detail.

[JJMartin]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Math, science, and technology and I am not being "smart" to you, but MIT taught me well.

So if I understand correctly, the calculation for surface condition is derived from weather reports. Relative humidity? I suppose wind direction and speed are also factored in. What else would contribute to this figure?

[LottaKash]

I am still clueless about where to find any horse's current weight, let alone having to check the wind and the weather every 5 minutes in order to crush the races...

It Makes me wonder how anyone can possibly win at the races without using all of that science...

I must be very, very, lucky at times and seasons..

Still, I find it interesting all the same...

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by LottaKash

I am still clueless about where to find any horse's current weight, let alone having to check the wind and the weather every 5 minutes in order to crush the races...

It Makes me wonder how anyone can possibly win at the races without using all of that science...

I must be very, very, lucky at times and seasons..

Still, I find it interesting all the same...

I am not here to argue your beliefs or disbeliefs; enough of that rhetoric goes on in the other forums on this website.

However, a Google search should give you websites for weather.

The horse’s weight is more problematic, but it can be calculated and I think the poster, Magister Ludi have previously addressed that issue.

The poster, “Traynor” requested a collaborative effort to design software for pace analysis in horseracing.

My contribution is to assist in building the algorithms.