Pace Analysis Software

[whodoyoulike]

Also sorry, I was under the impression you had a very large database. But, I did realize your search was for all races in your DB which is the reason for my response for stratification.

Since the thread was discussing Pace Analysis and by lumping all of the races together appeared to me to be a misleading result e.g., at different distances, I don't think you would get a similar result.

Btw, the bold portion of your post noted in my original post is spot on. You've identified and pretty much described the true reason for Pace Analysis which is to predict the pace of the upcoming race.

Hopefully, you can do it.

I've worked on it myself and realize there are other methodologies which will solve the same problem. Mine does appear to work but I'll admit not in all situations.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Also sorry, I was under the impression you had a very large database. But, I did realize your search was for all races in your DB which is the reason for my response for stratification.

Since the thread was discussing Pace Analysis and by lumping all of the races together appeared to me to be a misleading result e.g., at different distances, I don't think you would get a similar result.

Btw, the bold portion of your post noted in my original post is spot on. You've identified and pretty much described the true reason for Pace Analysis which is to predict the pace of the upcoming race.

Hopefully, you can do it.

I've worked on it myself and realize there are other methodologies which will solve the same problem. Mine does appear to work but I'll admit not in all situations.

Are going to participate in predicting the "pace" and winner of the 2017 Ky Derby from the 5 prep races suggested in this thread?

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Are going to participate in predicting the "pace" and winner of the 2017 Ky Derby from the 5 prep races suggested in this thread?

?? Are you asking me if I'm going to participate or are you saying you are going to participate?

For me it depends since I will participate only after I've seen the pp's and whether I'm able to form an opinion.

How about you?

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

?? Are you asking me if I'm going to participate or are you saying you are going to participate?

For me it depends since I will participate only after I've seen the pp's and whether I'm able to form an opinion.

How about you?

Yes, I am going to participate.

This should be an interesting exercise because it involves assessing the known and projecting the unknown in that the horses running in the 2017 Kentucky Derby probably have never run a 1-1/4M race (the unknown), but have run a 1-1/8M race (the known).

Look at the chart of the 2016 Kentucky Derby earlier in this thread and you should see that two horses, Danzing Candy and Nyquist set the pace. Danzing Candy hit the “wall” somewhere around the 6F -7F mark of the race and Nyquist became the pacesetter, but begin to falter beyond the 1-1/8M point of the race after turning in a splendid 1-1/8M time of 1:47.23; and struggled home to win the Derby with a last eighth mile in a paltry 14.08 seconds.

The point being made is that in the 5 major Derby prep races listed in this thread, all at 1-1/8 miles, there might be some “fast” final times for the 1-1/8M distance, but the horses who set those times might not be able to go 1-1/4M with a winning effort.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Yes, I am going to participate.

This should be an interesting exercise because it involves assessing the known and projecting the unknown in that the horses running in the 2017 Kentucky Derby probably have never run a 1-1/4M race (the unknown), but have run a 1-1/8M race (the known).

Look at the chart of the 2016 Kentucky Derby earlier in this thread and you should see that two horses, Danzing Candy and Nyquist set the pace. Danzing Candy hit the “wall” somewhere around the 6F -7F mark of the race and Nyquist became the pacesetter, but begin to falter beyond the 1-1/8M point of the race after turning in a splendid 1-1/8M time of 1:47.23; and struggled home to win the Derby with a last eighth mile in a paltry 14.08 seconds.

The point being made is that in the 5 major Derby prep races listed in this thread, all at 1-1/8 miles, there might be some “fast” final times for the 1-1/8M distance, but the horses who set those times might not be able to go 1-1/4M with a winning effort.

I think it would be far more interesting if you (attempt to) predict what (you believe) the pace WILL BE in a given race, AND how you (and/or "Merlin") believe that pace will affect each of the entries in some manner significant enough to influence the outcome. AND what you believe the outcome of that race will be in view of your "pace analysis."

Show the folks at home what you and "Merlin" can do for a week or two of races in Hong Kong (or some other track with Trakus data available), and they may be more interested in "participating" in something that only you seem to be even slightly interested in (and that most likely because it was your suggestion).

[Cratos]

I didn’t start this thread, you did and if you feel it is not meeting your expected criteria of pace analysis development you should request to the administrator or moderator that the thread be shut down.

I belatedly suggested in the thread to use Excel because the method suggested is a simple arithmetical operation and to encourage more involvement. Statistical concepts like CLT, DOE, etc along with physics and calculus appear to be boring and tedious for some posters even though they have the competency.

Your suggestion about Merlin is a not going to happen because it is a not for sale proprietary program and all what I can show is output as I did prior to the 2017 PWC where Merlin had 3 of the top 4 finishers.

Additionally, I am not an authorized reseller on this website and it would be wrong and improper for me to attempt to advertise a product that could be for sale.

Finally, I have yet to see you post anything to this thread about pace analysis except cynicism or criticism.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Cratos

...
Look at the chart of the 2016 Kentucky Derby earlier in this thread and you should see that two horses, Danzing Candy and Nyquist set the pace. Danzing Candy hit the “wall” somewhere around the 6F -7F mark of the race and Nyquist became the pacesetter, but begin to falter beyond the 1-1/8M point of the race after turning in a splendid 1-1/8M time of 1:47.23; and struggled home to win the Derby with a last eighth mile in a paltry 14.08 seconds.

The point being made is that in the 5 major Derby prep races listed in this thread, all at 1-1/8 miles, there might be some “fast” final times for the 1-1/8M distance, but the horses who set those times might not be able to go 1-1/4M with a winning effort.

Yes, I did look at your PDF and also had Danzing Candy, Nyquist and Gun Runner setting the early paces. I couldn't find my last year's Derby worksheet but I dismissed both DC and Nyquist because of their pace numbers and expected them to duel and fade. And, one did do just that.

I remember selecting GR and two others with a more believable pace numbers and odds, IMO. Obviously, all three lost.

So, you're going to participate even before seeing any pp's?

You've made this into a sort of a "challenge" according to your rules which I really don't appreciate. For a number of years now, I no longer feel the need to make a wager just to make a wager but would rather pass the race if I'm unable to form an opinion.

As I've mentioned, I feel my prediction algorithm does work but I've admitted I've found a high hit rate only in certain situations and I do have an idea which situations they are. But, I do enjoy handicapping races so, I'll participate if I can, if that is acceptable to you.

[Cratos]

Now that the data is in from 4 of the major preps, the Derby pace analysis can begin.

Step #1 for me will be track geometry with respect to Churchill Downs and turn effect. Approximately 6f of the the Derby distance is in the straight-away with the remainder in the turns which are the sharpest of the major race ovals in NA.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Now that the data is in from 4 of the major preps, the Derby pace analysis can begin.

Step #1 for me will be track geometry with respect to Churchill Downs and turn effect. Approximately 6f of the the Derby distance is in the straight-away with the remainder in the turns which are the sharpest of the major race ovals in NA.

The G1 Arkansas Derby says you might want to wait and include him.

[Dream_Police]

Cratos where are you getting that the turns at Churchill are the tightest in racing when they have done overlays showing that Pimlico and CD are almost Identical? Just curious as I have never heard this before and I live here in KY.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Dream_Police

Cratos where are you getting that the turns at Churchill are the tightest in racing when they have done overlays showing that Pimlico and CD are almost Identical? Just curious as I have never heard this before and I live here in KY.

I said in my earlier post that Churchill Downs have the tightest turns of the major ovals and after looking at Oaklawn Park I found that I erred because Churchill and Oaklawn are virtually identical.

However, to address your question about Pimilco and Churchill I have attached layouts of each track to support my assertion that Churchill have the tighter turns.

[garyscpa]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Now that the data is in from 4 of the major preps, the Derby pace analysis can begin.

Step #1 for me will be track geometry with respect to Churchill Downs and turn effect. Approximately 6f of the the Derby distance is in the straight-away with the remainder in the turns which are the sharpest of the major race ovals in NA.

Shouldn't you have done this before you bet on Dortmund?

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by garyscpa

Shouldn't you have done this before you bet on Dortmund?

You might be right, but the chink in my armor is “well-bred big horses with a good trainer.” I can go as far back as Dr. Fager with John Nerud to today’s Arrogate with Bob Baffert.

Dortmund looked the part and it didn’t hurt that he had run over the Churchill Downs surface as a 2yo, but I am a gambler without apologies and gamblers take risk.

[Cratos]

I will not post a pre-2017 Ky Derby Pace Analysis based on the 5 major preps as previously stated because of lack of time.

However, I will post my choices and the reasons why if I find time to write en route to Louisville for my 39th year; would've been 40, but a serious illness sidelined me last year.

[traynor]

What a concept! People learning to recognize and (accurately) predict patterns, rather than relying on a computer to think for them.

"In Silicon Valley, everyone makes bets. Founders bet years of their lives on finding product market fit, investors bet billions on the future value of ambitious startups, and executives bet that their strategies will increase a company’s prospects. Here, predicting the future is not a theoretical superpower, it’s part of the job.

But our approach to prediction seems stuck in the past. Most business forecasts fail to include measurable outcomes and are not recorded, so it is hard to know if we are even getting better at them.

Research from organizational psychologist Philip Tetlock, the co-author of Superforecasting, suggests an alternative. Studying forecasting tournaments where anonymous experts predicted future events, Tetlock found that some forecasters could consistently predict better than others. Rather than possessing some innate talent, so-called “superforecasters” demonstrate what Tetlock describes as a “growth mindset,” or a willingness to learn from past mistakes and continually update their theoretical priors. Our ability to predict, like any other skill, can improve with practice.

At Twitch, a subsidiary of Amazon, we saw the promise in this research. If an individual can gain a predictive edge, so can a company. We created a program that teaches all our employees to become better forecasters regardless of their quantitative background, organizational role, or area of expertise."
https://hbr.org/2017/05/how-our-comp...wsltr_20170524

Amazing what people can accomplish when they rely on their own abilities.