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Old 05-06-2018, 08:37 AM   #1
NY BRED
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Bob Baffert for President

Long story short:

one of the best trainers I have ever witnesed.

I actually felt Justify was at a disadvatage based upon
conditioning , track condition, and most importantly, possibly at the mercy of
Mendelessohn ,a 3,000,000 purchase with a well respected trainer.

Add to that, multple entries by Pletcher etc.., rough track condition,
and pick any other thoughts in a 20 horse field created a daunting
situation, at least to me.

Justify visually played with the field almost in the fashion of
American Pharoah.

Lots of dynamics about a repeating Triple Crown winner, but it would
appear "J" will be tough to beat in the Preakness.

The only question I running through my mind is why Victor Esponza
not on this star; presume it was the owners making this call, any thoughts?

Last edited by NY BRED; 05-06-2018 at 08:38 AM.
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Old 05-06-2018, 07:08 PM   #2
Denny
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President of what?

A pharmaceutical company specializing in undetectable drug research, or steroids?
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Old 05-07-2018, 02:23 AM   #3
AltonKelsey
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Just works harder, gets up earlier, and don't forget Bode.

Does humble better than Pletcher and Brown put together.


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Old 05-09-2018, 01:47 PM   #4
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Ever wonder why some of the great ones don't do well at stud?Because the talent wasn't in the genes.Make yourself a list of the best on track, their trainers, and stud success. Patterns will emerge.
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Old 05-09-2018, 02:41 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Prof.Factor View Post
Ever wonder why some of the great ones don't do well at stud?
Regression towards the mean.

Greatness arises out of nowhere and recedes into nowhere. Great men and women tend not to be the offspring of greatness nor do their offspring achieve greatness. Nor do they have great siblings, aunts and uncles or cousins. They are outliers in their genetic line who, unfortunately cannot pass on their unique genetic combination to their children.

I assume the same applies to horses, but I don't use breeding much in my handicapping.
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Old 05-09-2018, 04:26 PM   #6
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If any of that were true about horses, we'd not have improved the breed much over the last 200 years , would we.
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Old 05-10-2018, 12:40 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by therussmeister View Post
Regression towards the mean.

Greatness arises out of nowhere and recedes into nowhere. Great men and women tend not to be the offspring of greatness nor do their offspring achieve greatness. Nor do they have great siblings, aunts and uncles or cousins. They are outliers in their genetic line who, unfortunately cannot pass on their unique genetic combination to their children.

I assume the same applies to horses, but I don't use breeding much in my handicapping.
Overall that might be true in humans because there are so many other factors involved in achieving whatever "greatness" is in your theory, but if you really think that athletic parents aren't more likely to have athletic children then I don't know what to tell you...the number of second- and third-generation pro athletes would indicate you're wrong.
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Old 05-12-2018, 09:28 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Prof.Factor View Post
Ever wonder why some of the great ones don't do well at stud?Because the talent wasn't in the genes.Make yourself a list of the best on track, their trainers, and stud success. Patterns will emerge.
So by this theory, top horses with generally mediocre trainers should be where you gravitate towards in finding successful sires? If you go by this logic + the fact he ran without lasix, Runhappy should be a sire sensation. Claiborne did actually put him in their famed #1 stall
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Old 05-12-2018, 10:40 PM   #9
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So by this theory, top horses with generally mediocre trainers should be where you gravitate towards in finding successful sires? If you go by this logic + the fact he ran without lasix, Runhappy should be a sire sensation. Claiborne did actually put him in their famed #1 stall
2018 leading sires / trainers / stud fee

1 Candy Ride (ARG) , John Sadler, entered stud 2005 fee $80k
2 Scat Daddy (2004-2015), Todd Pletcher (sired Justify)
3 Kitten's Joy , Dale L. Romans, entered stud 2006 fee $60k
4 Flatter , Steven Penrod, entered stud 2004 fee $40k
5 Into Mischief , Richard E. Mandella, entered stud 2009 fee $100k
6 Curlin , Helen Pitts / Steve Asmussen, entered stud 2009 fee $150k
7 Tapit , Michael Dickenson, entered stud 2005 fee $300k
8 Quality Road , James A. Jerkens, Todd Pletcher, entered stud 2011 fee $70k
9 Malibu Moon , Melvin Stute, entered stud 2000 fee $75k
10 Medaglia d'Oro , Robert J. Frankel, entered stud 2005 fee $300k
11 Hard Spun , J Larry Jones, entered stud 2008 fee $40k
12 Blame , Al Stall Jr, entered stud 2011 fee $12.5k
13 More Than Ready , Todd Pletcher, entered stud 2001 fee $75k
14 Ghostzapper , Robert J. Frankel, entered stud 2006 fee $85k
15 Uncle Mo , Todd Pletcher, entered stud 2012 fee $125k
16 City Zip (1998-2017), Linda Rice
17 Speightstown , Todd Pletcher, entered stud 2005 fee $100k
18 Empire Maker , Robert J. Frankel, entered stud 2004 fee $85k
19 Midnight Lute , Bob Baffert, entered stud 2009 fee $15k
20 Street Sense , Carl A. Nafzger, entered stud 2008 fee $30k
21 Awesome Again , David Hofmans / Patrick B. Byrne, entered stud 1999 fee private (sired Game On Dude, Ghostzapper)


Baffert sires (likely faster on track than above list?)

American Pharoah (2012) entered stud 2016 fee private (Zayat sold breeding rights to Ashford Stud in 2014)
Arrogate (2013) entered stud 2018 fee $75k
Bayern (2011) entered stud 2016 fee $15k
Bob and John (2003) entered stud 2008 fee private
Bodemeister (2009) entered stud 2013 fee $40k (sired ALWAYS DREAMING)
Captain Steve (1997)
Congaree (1998) entered stud 2005 fee $3k
Dortmund (2012) entered stud 2018 fee $7.5k
First Dude (2007) entered stud 2012 fee $10k
Forestry (1996) entered stud 2000 standing in Brazil
Hoppertunity (2011)
Lookin At Lucky (2007) entered stud 2011 fee $17.5k (top performer ACCELERATE)
Lord Nelson (2012) entered stud 2018 fee $25k
Mastery (2014) entered stud 2018 fee $25k
Midnight Lute (2003) entered stud 2009 fee $15k (top performer MYLUTE)
Midshipman (2006) entered stud 2011 fee $8.5k (top performer LADY SHIPMAN)
Misremembered (2006) entered stud 2012 fee $2.5k (top performer DAZZLING GEM)
Paynter (2009) entered stud 2014 fee $12.5k
Pioneerof The Nile (2006) entered stud 2010 fee $110k (sired AMERICAN PHAROAH)
Point Given (1998) retired from stud 2017
Real Quiet (1995-2010) fee $25k (sired MIDNIGHT LUTE)
Secret Circle (2009) entered stud 2016 fee $5k
Silver Charm (1994) retired from stud 2014 (not successful at stud)
Sinister Minister (2003) entered stud 2008 stands in Japan
Vindication (2000-2008)
War Emblem (1999) entered stud 2003, retired from stud 2015, stood in Japan, breeding problems only 119 foals
Zensational (2006) entered stud 2011 fee private, stands in Argentina
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Old 05-12-2018, 11:23 PM   #10
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Candy Ride was trained by Ron McAnaly
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Old 05-13-2018, 01:58 AM   #11
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Candy Ride was trained by Ron McAnaly
Thanks. I also thought Street Sense was Dale Romans but can't find it.
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Old 05-13-2018, 10:42 AM   #12
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Thanks. I also thought Street Sense was Dale Romans but can't find it.
Street Sense was Carl Nazfger.
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Old 05-15-2018, 05:38 PM   #13
NY BRED
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Baffert for President

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President of what?

A pharmaceutical company specializing in undetectable drug research, or steroids?

really; I suppose that was the case for American Pharaoh as well?

BTW, Baffert lost several Triple Crown events , one by a nostril.

One fact is evident; you need a great trainer to win a Triple Crown,;
one of those attributes is knowing if the Tbred has the endurance not only to
compete but win in one of the most brutal series of races,including a keen sense
or knowledge of your opponents.

In addition, the rising star of the East,Chad Brown proved his abilities finishing second in a
field of 20 on a sloppy,and potentially dangerous track..Guess he wins a huge ammount
of races using drugs as well??

There is no doubt drugs have influenced wins(and Losses) through the years at
many tracks in the past;many races have been influenced by jockey/trainer
tactics in the past. We all have witnessed insane rides, extremely fast or slow times which sometimes helps us wagering, often destroys us.. That said, I would believe huge improvements
for testing drugs not only on horses, but jockeys ,as well, keeps this game alive..

I recently heard Baffert has never lost the Preakness after wining the Derby; If he does lose my friend will claim " J" was not JUICED;if he wins, guess he will express the opposite thought..

Last edited by NY BRED; 05-15-2018 at 05:48 PM.
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Old 05-15-2018, 06:56 PM   #14
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as long as his son bode isnt with him all the time,geez
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Old 05-18-2018, 09:30 PM   #15
NY BRED
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Baffert for President

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as long as his son bode isnt with him all the time,geez
agreed...
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