Breaking a tie with points ranking spreadsheet handicapping

[Gasser57]

I recently created a simple spreadsheet to better organize my handicapping process. I use a ranking system based on points similar to this one by Derek Johnson at US Racing, but I use a few more factors, some of which are different than what he uses.

Problem is what to do when horses are tied in their points total. Derek suggests a formula for when this occurs, but I don't understand it. So far I've just been taking a closer look at how each one scored in each factor to see if one shines a little more in the factors I consider most important. But this sort of defeats one of my main objectives in using a spreadsheet, which is to save time.

Any suggestions for breaking ties would be most appreciated!

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Gasser57

I recently created a simple spreadsheet to better organize my handicapping process. I use a ranking system based on points similar to this one by Derek Johnson at US Racing, but I use a few more factors, some of which are different than what he uses.

Problem is what to do when horses are tied in their points total. Derek suggests a formula for when this occurs, but I don't understand it. So far I've just been taking a closer look at how each one scored in each factor to see if one shines a little more in the factors I consider most important. But this sort of defeats one of my main objectives in using a spreadsheet, which is to save time.

Any suggestions for breaking ties would be most appreciated!

Why do you need to break a tie?

[thaskalos]

How about letting the odds-board break the tie for you? Wouldn't the higher-odds horse be the logically better choice?

[Gasser57]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

How about letting the odds-board break the tie for you? Wouldn't the higher-odds horse be the logically better choice?

Perfect- thanks! That's one of those smack your head "I coulda had a V8" ideas.

[Gasser57]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Why do you need to break a tie?

Good point. Some races I'd just play both. But for competitive races with shorter prices I'd pick one to keep wagering costs down.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Gasser57

Good point. Some races I'd just play both. But for competitive races with shorter prices I'd pick one to keep wagering costs down.

I, too, would play the higher odds horse until such time that you have adequate data that might indicate the opposite play.

[Gasser57]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I, too, would play the higher odds horse until such time that you have adequate data that might indicate the opposite play.

Yes, it seems like a "well, duh!" solution to a issue I had just assumed couldn't be so simple.

[jay68802]

Yes the odds. Improvement factors in their last 2 races also.

From Los Al race #8

1... 1838... 0.991
2... 1878... 3.491
3... 1857... 0.491
4... 1805... -3.343
5... 1872... .241
6... 1855... 2.241
7... 1863... .407
8... 1832... 2.259
9... 1722... -9.259

The first column is points, the second column is improvement. The 2 came in with the highest points and improvement factor. The 6, 7, and 8 also rank high here. Finished 2,6,7,8. When the odds are higher and improvement is more likely, the bet becomes clear. 2 paid $9.60.

[Gasser57]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Yes the odds. Improvement factors in their last 2 races also.

From Los Al race #8

1... 1838... 0.991
2... 1878... 3.491
3... 1857... 0.491
4... 1805... -3.343
5... 1872... .241
6... 1855... 2.241
7... 1863... .407
8... 1832... 2.259
9... 1722... -9.259

The first column is points, the second column is improvement. The 2 came in with the highest points and improvement factor. The 6, 7, and 8 also rank high here. Finished 2,6,7,8. When the odds are higher and improvement is more likely, the bet becomes clear. 2 paid $9.60.

Thanks - makes sense to consider recent improvement. I’ll definitely use that too.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by Gasser57

I recently created a simple spreadsheet to better organize my handicapping process. I use a ranking system based on points similar to this one by Derek Johnson at US Racing, but I use a few more factors, some of which are different than what he uses.

Problem is what to do when horses are tied in their points total. Derek suggests a formula for when this occurs, but I don't understand it. So far I've just been taking a closer look at how each one scored in each factor to see if one shines a little more in the factors I consider most important. But this sort of defeats one of my main objectives in using a spreadsheet, which is to save time.

Any suggestions for breaking ties would be most appreciated!

Bet the horse with the higher odds.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Gasser57

I recently created a simple spreadsheet to better organize my handicapping process. I use a ranking system based on points similar to this one by Derek Johnson at US Racing, but I use a few more factors, some of which are different than what he uses.

Problem is what to do when horses are tied in their points total. Derek suggests a formula for when this occurs, but I don't understand it. So far I've just been taking a closer look at how each one scored in each factor to see if one shines a little more in the factors I consider most important. But this sort of defeats one of my main objectives in using a spreadsheet, which is to save time.

Any suggestions for breaking ties would be most appreciated!

Gasser, I believe Derek Simon was referring to the individual factors ranking.
# - SR -Ranking
1 - 93 - 4
2 - 99 - 3
3 - 95 - 4
4 - 102(rev)-1.5
5 - 95 - 4
6 - 98 - 4
7 - 102 - 1.5 (Tied with #4 for the 1 ranking)
In the above example there is no #2 ranking, since both 4 & 7 use the first two positions.
Of course in his own example under Win %, he did just the opposite. two horses have 23.1% Win rate, so he gave them both a 2 ranking, and then skips to the 4 ranking. So he didn't follow his own advice and use 2.5

[Tom]

Not to go too far off stream but two questions -

1. Would it be better to use a Fibonacci rating instead of 1,2,3,4?
(10-7-4-1?)

2. Speaking of Derek Simon, I came across a pace rating method he developed and used on the Derby a few years ago - anyone familiar with it? I have been looking for more details, but no luck so far.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Tom

Not to go too far off stream but two questions -

1. Would it be better to use a Fibonacci rating instead of 1,2,3,4?
(10-7-4-1?)

2. Speaking of Derek Simon, I came across a pace rating method he developed and used on the Derby a few years ago - anyone familiar with it? I have been looking for more details, but no luck so far.

1. Probably not a bad idea, but what Fibon. sequence is that? Looks more like Pascal's triangle on steroids.

2. I actually tried to email Derek on that US Racing site, but they had a long registration form including my phone number and physical address, so it halted my registering. Guess he's not on twitter, unless you get on the site.

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

1. Probably not a bad idea, but what Fibon. sequence is that? Looks more like Pascal's triangle on steroids.

2. I actually tried to email Derek on that US Racing site, but they had a long registration form including my phone number and physical address, so it halted my registering. Guess he's not on twitter, unless you get on the site.

His Twitter handle is @Valuewagering

[fight]

use a Fibonacci rating works