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Old 03-31-2019, 09:59 PM   #121
rrpic6
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Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
Hi Ron. Hope your wagering is going well.



March was by far my best month ever wagering on MVR's races. I just finished doing my monthly numbers. I was plus $2966 on my bets on MVR's races in March. My on-track tipsheet also had a banner month. My top pick won 56 of 144 races (39%). Combined 1st and 2nd picks won 80 of 144 (55.5%).
The track surface did not change much during March, with most days being dry and fast. This certainly aided my handicapping. Presser types dominated at almost all distances.



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Old 04-01-2019, 02:58 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by rrpic6 View Post
March was by far my best month ever wagering on MVR's races. I just finished doing my monthly numbers. I was plus $2966 on my bets on MVR's races in March. My on-track tipsheet also had a banner month. My top pick won 56 of 144 races (39%). Combined 1st and 2nd picks won 80 of 144 (55.5%).
The track surface did not change much during March, with most days being dry and fast. This certainly aided my handicapping. Presser types dominated at almost all distances.



RR
Glad to hear it. I'm ahead a bit on the season, but nothing like my best meets there. Since you're a bris guy ..right?...you and I categorize running styles a bit differently. But my bias notes do summarize numerous days in March as 'not speed-biased, but very difficult to close,' which probably concurs with your generalization.

And that would make March typical of Mahoning's intrinsic nature, since it has never been a particularly speed-favoring track, and the bizzarre 'earth is flat' contour of the turn works against lots of closers.

It is my anecdotal observation that tons of route races have been straight up stolen around the first turn this year.

On an unrelated note: I suspect they made the 'safe call' on that dead-heat Friday and buried the actual winner's nose just a tad into the wire to give the appearance that the other horse was on the line simultaneously. It's an old ploy used by placing judges, not to cash a ticket or favor anybody, but either to make whatever call a low-def monitor can support, or because the margin of victory is so very, very, slight as to be considered practically non-existent. I've worked thousands of races as a placing judge, and can speak to this from considerable experience.

I'm guessing, since your best success came during a spate of 'fair' surfaces, that you are locked in during the races and unable to adjust to emergent trends.

Last edited by mountainman; 04-01-2019 at 03:02 AM.
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Old 04-01-2019, 05:46 AM   #123
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I'm guessing, since your best success came during a spate of 'fair' surfaces, that you are locked in during the races and unable to adjust to emergent trends.

Yes, as far as my tipsheet goes of course. And yes as far as when I'm physically working on race days, as my wagers are pre-bet on Xpressbet as per company policy. Interesting is that when I get to Keeneland on Thursday, their policies encourage employees, managers/supervisors included, to send it in while you work as long as you do it discreetly and don't shut out patrons!



I was able to cash some exotic bets on longhots like Critical Humor, who is entered today, trained by Alejandro Gomez. Machinist, trained by Brenda Ball, also a huge longshot, scored 2nd time at MVR, when cutting back in distance about 10 days ago, both helping my ROI immensely. Tampa shippers seemed to grasp the quirky surface better than Gulfstream shippers IMO.



I tend to use BRIS daily, but occasionally will purchase a DRF for Saturday's card, especially this time of year to 'cap big races at Gulfstream, Oaklawn, etc. The $10.50 cost of DRF is too pricey for a semi-retired guy to endure daily!


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Old 04-01-2019, 10:41 AM   #124
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Any opinions on today's featured 9th Race? It's a Mile and a half on the Turf Course Starter Allowance for 3 year olds and upward Grey Horses of any Sex that were not foaled or sired in Kentucky. Purse is $50,000. Winner takes it all!
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