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Old 09-01-2005, 06:59 PM   #1
yak merchant
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College Football

Okay kids. CFB is here and I have a chubby. And after all my B.S. in the other thread, I'm going to actually try to post all my plays here and let everyone see how the sports betting goes this year. I guarantee lots of ups and downs, crazy wins and lots of bad beats, but not that I'll actually win. My goal is to hit 57% and make 30 units. Matter of fact I might be on the right side 57% of the time and still lose money, that is the life of the football bettor. Plays 1 to 5 units.

For tonight so far

Cinci -10 2 units
Cinci over 55 1 unit
Vandy +8 2.5 units
UCF +21 1 unit.

May have a play on Tulsa/Minny later.
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Old 09-01-2005, 08:26 PM   #2
kingfin66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yak merchant
Matter of fact I might be on the right side 57% of the time and still lose money, that is the life of the football bettor.
Yak,

Good luck with the plays. I will be seriously pissed at you if you are on the right side of 57% and lose money. That is not the life of a football bettor, that is the life of a bad gambler. A good handicapper can hit 57%. A good sports betting investor can hit 57% and WIN. Don't bet 1-5 units, bet the same number of units every time. All of your plays should be worthy of the same unit bet, or they should not be bet at all. The bottom line is that to break even you only 52.4%. If you are at 57, you are an all-star and should be paid like one. Think about it and then go kick some college ass.
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Old 09-01-2005, 11:13 PM   #3
yak merchant
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King.. Seriously considering going to flat bets, especially in College hoops, but as of yet not ready. Most plays are 1 to 3, rarely do I get above 3 units. Anyway, no plays on Friday.

THU 2-2 + 0.2 units
YTD 2-2 + 0.2 units
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Old 09-02-2005, 09:33 AM   #4
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I agree w/Kingfin. Professional gamblers would be quite satisfied to hit 57% but they would definitely not be pleased to not be profitable.
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Old 09-03-2005, 05:08 AM   #5
yak merchant
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Saturday

Public all over alot of the game I like, and line moves going against alot of the others, so in both most cases I'm just going to pass. Won't have boxscores to crunch numbers for a couple of weeks, and don't want to put myself in a hole so keeping it small (rather screw up my percentage, than lose money )

Miami Oh +15 1*
Rutgers -2 1*
Colo St ov 52 1*
BC -2.5 1* (Vegas is fishin, and I'll probably get caught)
BC over 48.5 1*



May have a play on Baylor later, but for the fargin life of me I can't figure out that line move, so I'm probably laying off.
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Old 09-03-2005, 09:44 AM   #6
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I made one futures play: Wisconsin UNDER 7 wins. They lost 7 players to the NFL draft and its Alvarez' final season. The schedule looks rough; they get some of the better B10 teams at home: Michigan, Iowa and Purdue and some of the lesser teams on the road. In a strong year, that would be good but not when the talent is down. I see that Bowling Green has been getting hammered for today's game. Line opened at Wisky -5 and its down all the way to 2. Just flew thru 4 and 3, two key numbers.
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Old 09-03-2005, 01:56 PM   #7
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Valuist,

Well, their secondary sucks bad, so that bodes well. The way they are running the ball they may beat Bowling Green, which would really hurt your bet. But, Looking at their schedule, If they beat North Carolina, then I have a feeling you'll be a big Penn State fan, as that's they game if they lose you may be in trouble.
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Old 09-03-2005, 04:48 PM   #8
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Clash Of Titans This Evening

Western State (Co.) take on Weber State in Ogden, Ut. Danny Brethauer will lead Western to an upset blowout. WHAT? So, what if he IS my nephew?

Actually, I just hope he doesn't break anything.
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Old 09-03-2005, 06:35 PM   #9
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Take Boise State over Georgia. Offensively, this team can score on anyone, and has a good defense.
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Old 09-03-2005, 07:30 PM   #10
yak merchant
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Well Jake, hope you didn't get crazy with Boise. Don't like western teams traveling into humidity, let alone WAC visiting SEC.

Auburn -7 1.5u
Auburn OVER 37.5 1.5u
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Old 09-03-2005, 09:52 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yak merchant
Well Jake, hope you didn't get crazy with Boise. Don't like western teams traveling into humidity, let alone WAC visiting SEC.

Auburn -7 1.5u
Auburn OVER 37.5 1.5u

I've been following Boise State closely for last couple of years, and thought their offense should keep them in this game. But what an absolute stomping! Humidity or not, Georgia is going to be tough to beat this year.
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Old 09-04-2005, 05:37 PM   #12
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The real key with Boise has been the home/road dichotomy. Maybe its the blue turf, maybe the altitude but nobody beats them (or more importantly, covers against them) in Boise. On the road its a different ballgame. Also, at some point they have to rebuild. They've really become a solid program but they just can't reload like a Miami or Ohio State.
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Old 09-05-2005, 12:06 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valuist
The real key with Boise has been the home/road dichotomy. Maybe its the blue turf, maybe the altitude but nobody beats them (or more importantly, covers against them) in Boise. On the road its a different ballgame. Also, at some point they have to rebuild. They've really become a solid program but they just can't reload like a Miami or Ohio State.
That's certainly true. At home they have been deadly. But looking at their offenisive set and QB I really thought they could match up against the Georgia defense. I was wrong, and their QB was pulled at halftime. I convinced that Georgia will make a serious run at the national title, and that Boise State will prove an exceptional ATS play following their 3rd game. I also like Wyoming in the coming weeks.

Last edited by Jake; 09-05-2005 at 12:08 AM.
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Old 09-05-2005, 03:25 PM   #14
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If Boise were coached by D. Wayne Lukas, they'd win on the west-to-east move.
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Old 09-10-2005, 11:37 AM   #15
Tor Ekman
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Absolutely love Charlie Weis and the Irish with the points in this spot against Michigan today. I'm thinking that this is the game that Charlie's pre-season prep was focused on. He knew beating Wannstedt at Pitt was going to be child's play for him, so the focus was on Michigan. I think even the best college coaching staffs are going to be up against it all year in catching up to Charlie's offensive schemes. ND to cover and possibly win outright.
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