 |
|
11-03-2015, 08:30 AM
|
#1
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
how often do two of the top three horses come in 1st and 2nd
over a large number of races, say 500, how often do two of the top three horses come in 1st and 2nd ?
appreciate your answer.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 10:06 AM
|
#2
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,635
|
top three horses by what criteria? how many horses in race? class level? surface? ....
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 10:15 AM
|
#3
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by davew
top three horses by what criteria? how many horses in race? class level? surface? ....
|
none
just top three over about 500 races
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 10:20 AM
|
#4
|
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
|
smartass answer = Often enough to produce a stat that looks interesting, but not often enough to overcome the fact each individual race is independent in terms of how the top 3 horses will fare.
my guess = 25%?
if you define 'Top horses' as 'top 3 favorites' , someone on the board can probably give you that answer.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 10:48 AM
|
#5
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
smartass answer = Often enough to produce a stat that looks interesting, but not often enough to overcome the fact each individual race is independent in terms of how the top 3 horses will fare.
my guess = 25%?
if you define 'Top horses' as 'top 3 favorites' , someone on the board can probably give you that answer.
|
yes "top three public's choice"
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 11:21 AM
|
#6
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,506
|
Getting larger
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by formula_2002
over a large number of races, say 500, how often do two of the top three horses come in 1st and 2nd ?
appreciate your answer. |
I would think this has increased in the past few years, but guessing ca. 45%.
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 11:42 AM
|
#7
|
|
Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by lansdale
I would think this has increased in the past few years, but guessing ca. 45%.
|
If the figure 45% is close to accurate, the payoff point average for profit would be at $7.40 for the $1 exacta....
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 12:11 PM
|
#8
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,458
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by formula_2002
over a large number of races, say 500, how often do two of the top three horses come in 1st and 2nd ?
appreciate your answer. |
when I bet them never
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 02:34 PM
|
#9
|
|
Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by formula_2002
none
just top three over about 500 races
|
Quite often the top 3 choices won't be decided until its too late to act as the last possible flash of money (and it's a large amount) comes in after the race has started. (Comes in before race starts but you don't see it till after race starts)
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 02:40 PM
|
#10
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
|
What is the point in obtaining the information?
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 02:41 PM
|
#11
|
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by lansdale
I would think this has increased in the past few years, but guessing ca. 45%.
|
Yea, 45% sounds more reasonable than 25%.
Someone should have the stats 
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 02:48 PM
|
#12
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
If the figure 45% is close to accurate, the payoff point average for profit would be at $7.40 for the $1 exacta....
|
with a 25% exacta take out, the min $1 payout should be,
1/(.45*.75) = $2.96
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 11-03-2015 at 02:50 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 03:03 PM
|
#13
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by formula_2002
with a 25% exacta take out, the min $1 payout should be,
1/(.45*.75) = $2.96
|
I, too, would go with the $7.40. The bet is $6.
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 03:20 PM
|
#14
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,506
|
?
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by formula_2002
with a 25% exacta take out, the min $1 payout should be,
1/(.45*.75) = $2.96
|
Hi Formula-
A guy who went to Tech and has PhD shouldn't be accepting my 45% figure so easily. Hope others will check this, but when I went back and checked my figure, I realized I had doubled the outcomes, so the final figure should be ca. .225 - Robert F. was closer than myself on this.
So, to plug this in: 1/(.225*.75) = $5.92 for $1 payout/.25 takeout.
Since we're more likely to see this, the average $2 payout would be $13.84.
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2015, 03:52 PM
|
#15
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,506
|
#2
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by lansdale
Hi Formula-
A guy who went to Tech and has PhD shouldn't be accepting my 45% figure so easily. Hope others will check this, but when I went back and checked my figure, I realized I had doubled the outcomes, so the final figure should be ca. .225 - Robert F. was closer than myself on this.
So, to plug this in: 1/(.225*.75) = $5.92 for $1 payout/.25 takeout.
Since we're more likely to see this, the average $2 payout would be $13.84.
|
Wrong again - at least based on the figures I'm using - 1. .36/.18 - W/P
2. .25/.125 - W/P 3. .15/.075 W/P. I'm sure these values aren't exact, but are close to NA means.
Revised figure: 1/(.175*.75) = $7.63 for $1 payout/.25 takeout.
$2 payout: $16.63
Not sure what point Formula trying to make here - but wondering whether low odds exacta bets might have a compounding effect on the favorite/longshot bias.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
