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Old 03-22-2018, 02:45 PM   #16
woodbinepmi
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If anybody is going to the Fair Grounds Saturday, I will be at the paddock by the Guitar Star bar with a group. Stop by and say 'hi', I will be the guy in the white Hong Kong Derby hat.

Michael
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Old 03-22-2018, 06:22 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by woodbinepmi View Post
If anybody is going to the Fair Grounds Saturday, I will be at the paddock by the Guitar Star bar with a group. Stop by and say 'hi', I will be the guy in the white Hong Kong Derby hat.

Michael
Wish I was going to be there. Looks like a good card-have fun!
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Old 03-22-2018, 06:53 PM   #18
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I don't like My Boy Jack at 5/2 at all. He got a perfect ground saving trip on a day the rail was the best path and he closed in race that collapsed. I expect him to go off longer than 5/2. At some price he's a "use" but if he's in the 5/2 or 3-1 range and wins, I'm going to tear up a lot of tickets.
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Old 03-22-2018, 09:40 PM   #19
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Can't get a handle on this race, but it seems a lot of people are picking Lone Sailor so he is probably an underlay. Hyndford doesn't appear fast enough to be up on the pace or in the lead group so hopefully Bravo will let him sit back in the 2nd flight and power home at possible overlaid price. He should appreciate the extra ground.
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Old 03-23-2018, 11:51 AM   #20
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I don't see the speed in here being all that fast.

look to have it pretty easy on the front yet again IMO, even if they aren't in front and some other(s) like the , , or decide to jump up front. I don't see anybody really concerned about any of those horses.

Noble Indy should sit a good trip here, and I still think he is better than the and .

Noble Indy at 7/2 or better seems logical, as 9F shouldn't be a problem for him.
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Old 03-23-2018, 02:45 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Mulerider View Post
Totally off topic, but I wonder where poster "Boys at Tosconova" is? He usually shows up during the prep races each year.
hi..



really wish the admin didn't delete all the TC posts after every year. deleting indexed data only hurts the site.

as for this race.

while i like speed and position horses the favs in here seems like they'll be overbet imo. they just seems a lil vulerable. you still have to come up with others and it gets dicey to do that finding the right one. all and all it should be a good betting race
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Old 03-23-2018, 03:02 PM   #22
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Louisiana Derby

"Snapper Sinclair" is my choice. Jockey change from Beschizza to Jose Ortiz makes a difference.

I'm tossing "Bravazo". Stevens and Lukas are not "prime time" any longer. I would not take a short price on them.
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Old 03-23-2018, 03:26 PM   #23
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I will bet Noble Indy pretty good in this spot and am hoping My Boy Jack takes a lot of money

How can you bet Sinclair at 9/2 after he gets nosed at 40/1? I cant, and I bet him last race.
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Old 03-23-2018, 03:33 PM   #24
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When I lived in New Orleans after getting back from Desert Storm I would play the Fairgrounds quite a bit and occasionally have a nice hit.

Nowadays I just donate.

So in horizontals only I'll use

Retirement Fund 12-1
Hyndford 8-1
Lone Sailor 20-1

GL
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Old 03-23-2018, 04:28 PM   #25
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1279............those are the figures. everyone knows that.

key is to try and find the right one from the remaining six horses

while the russian maiden #3 can improve this spot doesn't seem right.

the #4 givemeaminit has some decent races against top comp as a 2yr old but he just seems to finish evenly in those route races, his last race wasn't pretty poor. if anybody can honestly tell me otherwise i would love to hear it. it just seems like he want to go shorter.

#5 retirement fund is interesting. he made a couple of sneaky moves in the SW up close and then fanned wide into contentionon an off track in a contested pace. would have loved him to finish a little better but what can you do.

#6 hyndeford ran a nice second vs magum moon, but that was only a 5 horse race. i have to believe the drop to maiden claiming after a decent maiden race means more than the 2nd place finish in an abbreviated field. i will toss because of it. i mean, is pletcher that stupid to put a 200k horse in a MC in his second lifetime start after a decent run in hs first maiden try on the turf?..

#8 lone sailor

looks like a live horse. if you just toss the lecomp,,he hasn't run poorly ever. beat bravazo as well by 3L in oct, if bravazo is a measuring stick, which he kind of has to be by default..

and if you like the 8 you really have to look at #10 dark templar, who just beat him, and who retirement fund beat 2 back...

really think if there's a price horse its going to be either the 5/8/10
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Old 03-23-2018, 09:15 PM   #26
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I was on Bravazo last time and was rewarded. I think he will be a bettable 3-1 or so tomorrow. I think Noble Indy and Snapper will take money because of the trainers. I hate them both. NI had a perfect trip and did nothing with it. The faster pace 2 back slowed him down if that should happen today. Snapper I don't know how he will run his race but I think he is distance challenged and will be stretching out and will get pace company. My Boy Jack will take a ton of money also IMO. After facing McKinzie he comes east and romps. But tops in the slop and has an outside post plus that pace in last suggests to me the track was quirky. I don't like that combination. Hyndford I think is sitting on a big race and I love the pedigree. Pace was quick in last and I think he will like the stretchout. Bravazo on the other hand I think rode his best race 2 back and they weren't thrilled with his ride by Mena in the last. Stevens is back on and he rates and finishes with a flurry IMO. Think the distance and ride will suit him well. Calumet and Lukas might not be household names anymore but I think they got the right horse to do some things with this spring. I'll check the exotic payoffs and see if I can get 6-1 on my standard bet but will take gladly at 3-1 or better. Good luck!
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Old 03-23-2018, 09:55 PM   #27
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Louisiana Derby
Fair Grounds, Race 11, 5:30 PM CT, Saturday, March 24, 2018
$1,000,000.00
Grade II Stakes
1 1/8 miles
Main Track
3 year-olds

Total Number of Picks On This Race: 702

Program # Picks Horse PH Odds
1. 100 Bravazo 5 - 1
2. 167 Noble Indy 5 - 2
3. 3 Marmello 197 - 1
4. 46 Givemeaminit 12 - 1
5. 48 Retirement Fund 11 - 1
6. 43 Hyndford 12 - 1
7. 75 Snapper Sinclair 7 - 1
8. 41 Lone Sailor 13 - 1
9. 134 My Boy Jack 7 - 2
10. 45 Dark Templar 12 - 1
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Old 03-23-2018, 09:57 PM   #28
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I was on Bravazo last time and was rewarded. I think he will be a bettable 3-1 or so tomorrow. I think Noble Indy and Snapper will take money because of the trainers. I hate them both. NI had a perfect trip and did nothing with it. The faster pace 2 back slowed him down if that should happen today. Snapper I don't know how he will run his race but I think he is distance challenged and will be stretching out and will get pace company. My Boy Jack will take a ton of money also IMO. After facing McKinzie he comes east and romps. But tops in the slop and has an outside post plus that pace in last suggests to me the track was quirky. I don't like that combination. Hyndford I think is sitting on a big race and I love the pedigree. Pace was quick in last and I think he will like the stretchout. Bravazo on the other hand I think rode his best race 2 back and they weren't thrilled with his ride by Mena in the last. Stevens is back on and he rates and finishes with a flurry IMO. Think the distance and ride will suit him well. Calumet and Lukas might not be household names anymore but I think they got the right horse to do some things with this spring. I'll check the exotic payoffs and see if I can get 6-1 on my standard bet but will take gladly at 3-1 or better. Good luck!
I think he will be the 3rd favorite so at least 3-1 is my guess. Publichandicapper has him @5-1 w/702 picks so far
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Old 03-24-2018, 12:19 AM   #29
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The Rocking Horse Winner




March 22 at 10:59pm ·
🐎 LOUISIANA DERBY 🐎
selections and wagers
the rocking horse winner... = #8 LONE SAILOR (20/1! ML) 😲🤑

3yo $1,000,000 G2 Derby prep going 9 Furlongs.

Great betting race.
There are two horses likely to be overlays, and I will use a 'double-key' along with the long shot LONE SAILOR, as well as some wagers that suit each overlay.

First, the handicapping.
#1 BRAVAZO(7/2) = Honest horse with good early speed. Won last time in the RISEN STAR with a slow pace, and a game effort. Nice looking horse. There's a danger that he's the real deal, and that he will appreciate the added ground, and rumble away up front. I think we've already seen his 3yo peak. Must include.

#2 NOBLE INDY(7/2) = Although he's yet to face a hot pace, this is perhaps the best horse in the race. Todd Pletcher's iron is hot, and this is the time to strike. Unfortunately, he's unlikely to go off at 7/2 odds. He'll probably be the 'wise guy' horse by post time, and vie for favoritism in the 5/2 range... Chased the slow pace last time and ran fine inside with some minor trouble. Could be his coming out party. A 'Key'.

#3 MARMELLO(50/1) = Has faced some decent early pace, but has never shown indication that he belongs in a top Derby prep.

#4 GIVEMEAMINIT(20/1) = Hasn't put it together. Unlikely to contend, but we've all seen Dallas Stewart bring along some long shots. As a bonus, Javier Castellano rides. Mildly interesting underneath.

#5 RETIREMENT FUND(12/1) = Not a bad little horse. Hasn't yet proven that he can contend in stakes races. Seems to need the lead, and it won't be a free trip up front. Seems to clash with the style of another Steve Asmussen Racing Stable entrant.

#6 HYNDFORD(8/1) = Too cheap. However, he's in good form for a top barn. Potential to add value underneath if he has a good trip.

#7 SNAPPER SINCLAIR(9/2) = Win contender. Top jock Jose Ortiz adds a little versatility and a possible 'E/P' running style to try to make the most of his willing tactical speed and short late run.

#8 LONE SAILOR(20/1) = The rocking horse winner 'Key'. Showed that he's still in good form while attempting to circle a slow-paced race last time. Tanked in the LECOMTE Stakes two-back while drawing the rail-post, adding blinkers, and attempting to attend the pace. Enough on his resume to show he belongs. Today he'll make a big move and if the pace is stopping in the stretch be the one to capitalize.

#9 MY BOY JACK (5/2 ML FAVORITE) = Cool, handsome horse, will try to be this year's 'EXAGGERATOR'. Classy effort and a great mud ride last time by Kent J Desormeaux to close along the rail in the pace-collapse and win the SOUTHWEST Stakes. He's a danger to slip to co-favoritism with NOBLE INDY.

#10 DARK TEMPLAR (12/1) = Quality horse, has never proven himself at this class level, nor flashed especially brilliant talent. Won last race while controlling a slow pace. Versatile running style, can stalk or close.

Wager Strategy:
I will start with a 'double key' using both #8 LONE SAILOR and #2 NOBLE INDY in a superfecta;

1st+2nd = 2,8/2,8/all/all =$11.20
1st+3rd = 2,8/all/2,8/all
1st+4th = 2,8/all/all/2,8
2nd+3rd = all/2,8/2,8/all
2nd+4th = all/2,8/all/2,8
3rd+4th = all/all/2,8/2,8
$11.20 x 6 = $67.20

next, some suitable wagers for both keys;
dime super = 127/12679/all/*8* = $8.40
dime super = *2*/1679/all/*8* = $2.80
50cent tri = 127/12679/*8* = $6
50cent tri = *2*/1679/*8* = $2
$1 exacta = 12679/*8* = $5
$2 exacta = *2/8* = $2
$2 exacta = *2*/16789 =$10
$20 win on *#8* LONE SAILOR = $20
$2 exacta box = 8/4 = $4
= $60.20

TOTAL for all wagers = $127.40
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Old 03-24-2018, 08:24 AM   #30
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// for a $16 .50 tri.

/ $2 exacta for $16

Maybe also bet a chalky $2 tri of //
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