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09-15-2018, 10:22 AM
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#61
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,815
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I think the best thing to do is track the ML at your track. I have been doing a lot of research since this thread started, and some tracks are amazingly HORRIBLE. Others, pretty good.
I have found some spot plays that focus on the ML fav with a couple of simple other factors and I have seen 60%+winners, with roi's in the low .90s.
Now, win betting aside, many people play horizontals, so these could easily be singles.
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09-15-2018, 10:53 AM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Lakehurst, NJ
Posts: 1,035
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It is fascinating to see what happens to morning lines when there are a lot of late scratches, such as when a race originally scheduled to be run on the turf course is taken off the turf.
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09-15-2018, 12:57 PM
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#63
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,815
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HTR has an adjusted ML that is also revised for scratches. Very powerful factor.
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09-15-2018, 01:27 PM
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#64
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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the morning line is an 'anchor' for the public.
A good morning line takes the superficial public opinion and offers a reasonable reflection of that opinion to use as an anchor.
You never want to see a morning line maker use esoteric handicapping to make 'selections'. You never want the morning line to be a reflection of the line maker's handicapping whatsoever.
It serves as a resource for the public, and as a psychological anchor. It sets the table for players who put in the work and occasionally find an esoteric insight to have some value.
The guy in NY started to do a much better job of this recently.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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09-15-2018, 02:34 PM
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#65
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: burnaby bc canada
Posts: 332
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[QUOTE=Robert Fischer;2370837]the morning line is an 'anchor' for the public.
I agree with this, and its value is precisely in the anchoring.
Hastings Park had a situation years ago where someone screwed up (either the publisher was incompetent, or whomever from Hastings responsible for getting them the line) and for one whole weekend( Friday, Saturday and Sunday) the program showed every horse entered with a 10-1 line.
Consternation!
It killed action for all the horizontal bets, and led to most bettors waiting until the line resolved itself before getting in line. Loong lines! The handle was down @40% for the weekend.
It might not be a resource for some people, but it IS a resource for the general betting public (if such a thing still exists!).
Mike
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09-16-2018, 09:03 PM
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#66
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 692
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Morning lines go way back. And I am not referring to the bookies.
In the parimutuel era, racetracks first used "hand" or "rack" tickets that were printed unevenly in quantity, with horses expected to have the most volume assigned a code number ending in "zero," the second favorite ending in "1" etc, etc up to "9."
Track officials assigned those numbers in their programs, and the public generally bet them as the officials estimated.
It was an efficient way to keep ticket-printing prices down. And the guys were pretty adept.
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09-18-2018, 07:53 AM
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#67
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2018
Posts: 188
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There is one useful piece of info in regards to the m/l and pick three betting. Looking at the will pays of a pick 3 nearly 100% of the time the lowest payoff is the m/l favorite. What this tells me is that a lot of the bettors are lazy and don’t handicapp ahead. Most of the time the will pays are far greater on all the other horses then the m/l fav. Now if I like the m/l fav of course I’m not throwing that horse out but if I don’t like then this sets up a great advantage in pic 3 price.
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09-18-2018, 06:32 PM
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#68
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyChippy423
There is one useful piece of info in regards to the m/l and pick three betting. Looking at the will pays of a pick 3 nearly 100% of the time the lowest payoff is the m/l favorite. What this tells me is that a lot of the bettors are lazy and don’t handicapp ahead. Most of the time the will pays are far greater on all the other horses then the m/l fav. Now if I like the m/l fav of course I’m not throwing that horse out but if I don’t like then this sets up a great advantage in pic 3 price.
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That would be an interesting analysis Chippy. Tracks do not publish "probables" for the pick three, only the daily double. At least I don't know any who do.
On those situations where the ML favorite is not the win betting favorite, how many times does the Pick3 "will Pay" be lower for the ML fav?
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10-05-2018, 11:14 AM
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#69
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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Speaking of ML odds, I notice that the 6th race(Woodford S G2) at Keenland tomorrow (Saturday) does not have a morning line favorite, which I don't believe I have saw before. Both the 5 (Holding Gold) and the 10(Will Call) are both 4/1. I guess he didn't want to go out on a limb and make one 7/2.
It will be interesting to see what they go off at.
http://www.equibase.com/static/entry...8USA6-EQB.html
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