My Boy Jack derby betting

[SG4]

Surprised this hasn't come up unless I missed it elsewhere on the boards, but how was My Boy Jack the 2nd choice in the Derby when all was said & done? He was bet strongly the whole way through from Oaks day until post time, which was frankly just amazing. I know he had a great mud race, but that wouldn't explain the heavy betting on him on day 1. I didn't see any steam on this horse anywhere, his work reports were mediocre, I think he was OK on the sheets but nothing special, his connections aren't exactly public draws & I don't think there are enough people named Jack to have kept pounding the $ in.

If he won I feel like people would be spewing conspiracy theories or some venom at computer players or what not, but because he ran a respectable 5th not a word. I don't need a recap of his merits cause I was actually interested in him as a Derby longshot since his Louisiana Derby, but 6-1 in that field was mind-boggling to me.

[Robert Fischer]

extreme case of the public over-correcting a perceived overlay.

He's 30-1! and I can see him running 3rd or 4th.

He was the 'coolest closer'. He's the long shot that every casual player thought of first. Quite a few experts gave him out as a long shot to hit the board.

When the public exhibits this sheep-flocking behavior, they don't allow for the fact that the odds change. They commit to their bet based on the perceived value, and then stick with it.

You see this all the time with trip horses, especially within a circuit. Seemingly happens twice a month in New York when Serling or someone gives out a horse that is mispriced the morning line, and by the time the sheep-flocking behavior has set in, you either have to pass the race, or bet the horse that was originally the slight underlay.

We just do not see such an extreme example in day to day racing. Usually we're looking at 5-1 shots who should be 7-2 and get over-corrected to 5-2.

For sure, there were an array of minor factors at play; Just saw him win the Lexington, Familiar jockey/familiar connections/exaggerator, the 'clunk-up-for-2nd' longshot trend, the weather forecast,...
but I feel pretty strongly this was primarily a case of the public committing to perceived value in a sheep-flocking behavior.

[lamboguy]

years ago when i used to spend the meet at Saratoga, i used to walk in the place and hang out at the shoeshine stand with my old buddy Jimmy The Greek. all afternoon long guys used to walk up to the greek and tip him out on first time starters that were 2 year olds. sometimes he used to get 6 different horses in the same race. i used to write them all down and make sure my money wasn't on any of them. many of them took money, some not so much, but very few ever won.

[toddbowker]

Closer. Won the Southwest on a muddy track, and damn near every tout in America was picking him as the "wise guy" horse this year.

Definitely didn't deserve to be 30-1, but he was well over bet.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by toddbowker

Closer. Won the Southwest on a muddy track, and damn near every tout in America was picking him as the "wise guy" horse this year.

Definitely didn't deserve to be 30-1, but he was well over bet.

I do subscribe to the theory someone could have mad a big bet and then when the public saw the horse taking money they figured he was a contender. The derby is the one race with a ton of uninformed money.

[chiguy]

I had over 1300 transactions on Derby day and I asked about a dozen "Hey do you have a Jack in your life"? and every one of them said yes. Small sample size but the name must have had something to do with it.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Almost seemed like a bridge jumper made a play on Jack and a lot of lemmings followed him off the bridge. I didn't have him on a ticket, but as it turns out the horse didn't embarrass himself, finishing 5th and pocketing $60K. If he passes the Preakness and runs in the Belmont I believe he'd be worth a look.

[Rico8812]

Safe to say the morning line guy blew that one. Shoulda been 15-1 ML. Pretty bad miss imo.

[bks]

It had 90% to do with the name.

[ZippyChippy423]

Someone that owns a piece of that horse in Connecticut touted the crap out of him.

[davew]

Originally Posted by toddbowker

Closer. Won the Southwest on a muddy track, and damn near every tout in America was picking him as the "wise guy" horse this year.

Definitely didn't deserve to be 30-1, but he was well over bet.

They didn't bet him in the oaks/derby double - went off near 28/1

[Valuist]

This horse will almost certainly be way overbet if he runs in the Belmont. He got his sloppy track, and he got a fast pace. The result? A very non-threatening 5th passing some horses who didn't handle the track. Let's hope he comes back to either Baltimore or NY.