"I'm disappointed with the trip", Brown said

[pandy]

The key part of the Ortiz interview was, as he mentioned, he drew inside of Justify. He had to leave, and then Smith took a hold of his horse and was intent with stalking, good move as it turned out, it put Ortiz in a situation where he would have had to take a hard hold of his horse, which as we know, often takes something out of them. This was not a turf race. Ortiz said he started to take a hold of him but decided that the pace was too slow.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by papillon

People insisting the pace was fast should listen to Jose Ortiz's immediate interview with Scott Hazelton--the one before he got scapegoated by Brown. Then listen to Bravazo's jockey's immediate post-race interview with Scott. He said he was right behind them and was not having trouble keeping up. He said he'd been sitting just off of Justify since the 1/2.

The fog has really screwed up people's perceptions of the race, because they couldn't see what was going on and made up much of what they think they saw. A jockey on a dark horse in dark silks on the outside in dense fog is invisible, and Bravazo was. He was there the whole time.

For those that say I must accept CJ''s pace figures, thank you for your concern.

Yeah...the first time I go to a jockey to learn about how fast or slow a pace was, is the time you need to put me out to pasture as a handicapper.

Are you for real?

Listen to Spalding No! if you don't want to listen to cj.

Or better yet, listen to how hard Justify was blowing right after the race...you can hear it loud and clear on the pony girl's mic right after he pulls up.

That pace was fast, not slow. Anyone who says otherwise has some weird ass agenda full of "scripts" or whatever other tin-foil-hat-wearing garbage you want to call it.

Stop with the nonsense.

[Blenheim]

Recall the Preakness Stakes last year, Classic Empire on the outside of and against the swifty Always Dreaming to the inside. Classic Empire had to go and challenge the swifty to see what he had, that's what horseracin is all about; top of the stretch the swifty folded. In this Preakness same scenario, different positions on the track with Good Magic on the inside, swifty Justify on the outside, the swifty held on, but just barely - likely benefited from a wet track.

Good Magic had to challenge the swifty to see what he had, who knows, swifty might have folded. Not challenging would have been the failure.

W/respect to all the comments, makes good drama, that's about it . . . I think the race may have "softened" Justify. It will be interesting and critical to see how he recovers come the next few weeks.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

That pace was fast, not slow. Anyone who says otherwise has some weird ass agenda full of "scripts" or whatever other tin-foil-hat-wearing garbage you want to call it.

Stop with the nonsense.

He didn’t say it was slow. He said it wasn’t fast. Jerry Bailey said similar. The clock agrees. The 6F fraction was the same as it has been for every three year old route race at any track all year long. But every time Justify runs a 1:11 and change at 6F it’s blazing to you. Pardon those who disagree.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He didn’t say it was slow. He said it wasn’t fast. Jerry Bailey said similar. The clock agrees. The 6F fraction was the same as it has been for every three year old route race at any track all year long. But every time Justify runs a 1:11 and change at 6F it’s blazing to you. Pardon those who disagree.

Didnt we dispense with the Justify is not all that fast after the whole raw time debacle in the SA Derby? Which by the way had the same exact pace numbers as the Preakness.

It was right then and its right now. The final time of the preakness was average, I do agree there, much better than American Pharoah though.

Lets play raw time games

Justify 1:56.93
American Phoroah 1:58.46
California Chrome 154.84

So California Chrome is 10 lengths better than Justify, who is 7 lengths better than American Phoroah.

ok.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

Recall the Preakness Stakes last year, Classic Empire on the outside of and against the swifty Always Dreaming to the inside. Classic Empire had to go and challenge the swifty to see what he had, that's what horseracin is all about; top of the stretch the swifty folded. In this Preakness same scenario, different positions on the track with Good Magic on the inside, swifty Justify on the outside, the swifty held on, but just barely - likely benefited from a wet track.

The difference is that Good Magic has been a dedicated stalker his entire career up to this point while the beleaguered Classic Empire had good front-running speed.

In his first route, the 2017 Breeder's Futurity, Classic Empire was parked 5 or 6 wide into the first turn while the speedy Wild Shot, who later did his best running around one-turn, established the early lead.

In the 2016 BC Juvenile, Classic Empire broke sharply and contested the pace with Syndergaard, who had set one of the fastest paces on the 2017 Derby Trail one race earlier in the Champagne. Right behind those two was the speedy Three Rules, who later may have set the fastest pace on the 2017 Derby Trail in the Fountain of Youth (which fried another speedster in Irish War Cry).

Classic Empire's winter campaign was beset with all sorts of problems. In his comeback, the Arkansas Derby, he was sharp from the gate near the inside but had to steady and check out of the battle for the early lead when sandwiched going into the first turn.

In the Kentucky Derby, Classic Empire took a beating coming out of the gate and lost all chance for a forward position.

Also, in the end, Classic Empire was defeated in the Preakness, and both trainer Mark Casse and jockey Julian Leparoux blamed themselves for the defeat as Always Dreaming had folded like a cheap suit and left Classic Empire with a clear lead way too early, leaving him a sitting duck down the lane. They should have played the odds that Chad Brown was trying to play with the potential regression of the Derby winner (albeit much more likely with a Pletcher horse than a Baffert horse...)

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Didnt we dispense with the Justify is not all that fast after the whole raw time debacle in the SA Derby? Which by the way had the same exact pace numbers as the Preakness.

It was right then and its right now. The final time of the preakness was average, I do agree there, much better than American Pharoah though.

Lets play raw time games

Justify 1:56.93
American Phoroah 1:58.46
California Chrome 154.84

So California Chrome is 10 lengths better than Justify, who is 7 lengths better than American Phoroah.

ok.

The raw 6F time of 1:11 and change has been extremely consistent across all preps, in all conditions, and through the TC races themselves. Justify alone ran on three different surfaces with 6F fractions. If 1:11 and change at any track is the 2018 gold standard for hot pace then so be it.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The raw 6F time of 1:11 and change has been extremely consistent across all preps, in all conditions, and through the TC races themselves. Justify alone ran on three different surfaces with 6F fractions.

Not really:

Lexington - 1:12
Arkansas Derby - 1:13.2
Santa Anita Derby - 1:12.6
Blue Grass - 1:11.8
Wood Memorial - 1:11.4
Florida Derby - 1:11.6
Louisiana Derby - 1:11.4
Rebel - 1:11.2
San Felipe - 1:11.2
Tampa Bay Derby - 1:13.6
Fountain of Youth - 1:12.6

Among the fastest prep paces, the San Felipe had a pacesetter who was coming off a 6 furlong maiden victory just a few weeks before. The Wood featured a run-off frontrunner who folded after 5 furlongs or so. The Florida Derby featured an epic meltdown between Derby frontrunner Promises Fulfilled and soon-to-be sprinter Strike Power.

The Rebel featured Title Ready, who just chased the speedy Ax Man in the Sir Barton on Saturday. He'd been an interesting entrant in the Belmont to aid stablemate Tenfold in the face, similar to Gettysburg setting the pace for eventual winner Creator in 2016.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The raw 6F time of 1:11 and change has been extremely consistent across all preps, in all conditions, and through the TC races themselves. Justify alone ran on three different surfaces with 6F fractions. If 1:11 and change at any track is the 2018 gold standard for hot pace then so be it.

You can't possibly compare a raw dry track time from Track A a month earlier to a sloppy track time from Track B a month later. Apples and grapefruits.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Not really:

Lexington - 1:12
Arkansas Derby - 1:13.2
Santa Anita Derby - 1:12.6
Blue Grass - 1:11.8
Wood Memorial - 1:11.4
Florida Derby - 1:11.6
Louisiana Derby - 1:11.4
Rebel - 1:11.2
San Felipe - 1:11.2
Tampa Bay Derby - 1:13.6
Fountain of Youth - 1:12.6

Close enough. You found four races in eleven you selected that have a time over 1:12. Add these four and we're at four out of 15.

Holy Bull 1:12
BC Juvenile 1:12
Sam Davis 1:11.1
FrontRunner 1:11.4

I've always felt a sub 1:11 6F fraction was getting hot and a sub 1:10 red hot. Think Bodemeister, Trinniberg, Palace Malace, Danzing Candy, Dortmund (in preps). This crop has no idea what it's like to have bona fide speed last between the 3/4 and mile pole. I don't doubt Jose Ortiz one bit who rode the race and said it was easy. I have no reason to doubt Jerry Bailey commentating that it was modest. The very clock itself supports it. Maybe Santa Anita is slow this year but it's highly doubtful every damn track in America is slow.

Originally Posted by Valuist

You can't possibly compare a raw dry track time from Track A a month earlier to a sloppy track time from Track B a month later. Apples and grapefruits.

I'm not. I'm comparing 6F prep and TC times across America. There simply are none below 1:11. There used to be. So, either ALL the tracks got slow or the horses simply don't go that fast this year.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Close enough. You found four races in eleven you selected that have a time over 1:12. Add these four and we're at four out of 15.

Now you're changing the goal posts. 1:12 is the new cutoff? You said the 1:11+ fraction was "extremely" consistent this year. It is nothing close to that including 3 of the last prep races to be run. Furthermore, of the preps that had comparable 6f splits to the Preakness, those races clearly had fast paces featuring run offs, speed duels, and stretch out sprinters. Does the Preakness pace fail to be fast just because we've seen other fast paces along the Derby trail?

Meanwhile, we're clearly ignoring a lot of important factors by crudely comparing raw 6f splits, one of the most important being that the Preakness is a longer race than any of those and yet had a faster split than most.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Valuist

You can't possibly compare a raw dry track time from Track A a month earlier to a sloppy track time from Track B a month later. Apples and grapefruits.

You should really see f2tornado/LoneF/Pappilon's 'Flat-Earth' crew stuff in the off topic board before criticizing.

Once you realize that we aren't just slowly falling off the Cliffs of Dover, but that Sea Mnsters have been paddling us closer to our descent, you'll consider that 'Raw Times' need no adjustment. You'll realize that we're being bamboozled by CJ and his carefully crafted pace figures. I'm pretty sure that the whole California Crew was in on it this year, and jogged their horses for the weeks leading up to the Santa Anita Derby, so we wouldn't know how slow Justify actually is.

#WOKE

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

You should really see f2tornado/LoneF/Pappilon's 'Flat-Earth' crew stuff in the off topic board before criticizing.

Once you realize that we aren't just slowly falling off the Cliffs of Dover, but that Sea Mnsters have been paddling us closer to our descent, you'll consider that 'Raw Times' need no adjustment. You'll realize that we're being bamboozled by CJ and his carefully crafted pace figures. I'm pretty sure that the whole California Crew was in on it this year, and jogged their horses for the weeks leading up to the Santa Anita Derby, so we wouldn't know how slow Justify actually is.

Can I interest any one in my new angle. It is called the "Fake Speed Figure Angle". This is going to be a real money maker. If you doubt me, just look at how intelligent my Avatar looks, you will then follow this angle blindly.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

You should really see f2tornado/LoneF/Pappilon's 'Flat-Earth' crew stuff in the off topic board before criticizing.

Once you realize that we aren't just slowly falling off the Cliffs of Dover, but that Sea Mnsters have been paddling us closer to our descent, you'll consider that 'Raw Times' need no adjustment. You'll realize that we're being bamboozled by CJ and his carefully crafted pace figures. I'm pretty sure that the whole California Crew was in on it this year, and jogged their horses for the weeks leading up to the Santa Anita Derby, so we wouldn't know how slow Justify actually is.

#WOKE

Sub 1:11 spits used to be more commonplace. Did every track get slow? I am not criticizing the figure makers. In fact, I'll even rescind my rant about Beyer a couple months ago. I'm merely skeptical the Preakness pace was "fast". The riders agree. I can otherwise play some Billy Joel, "You may be right, I may be crazy". Not sure where the flat earth nonsense came from. I guess Jose Ortiz and Jerry Bailey are flat earth material too.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Sub 1:11 spits used to be more commonplace. Did every track get slow? I am not criticizing the figure makers. In fact, I'll even rescind my rant about Beyer a couple months ago. I'm merely skeptical the Preakness pace was "fast". The riders agree. I can otherwise play some Billy Joel, "You may be right, I may be crazy". Not sure where the flat earth nonsense came from. I guess Jose Ortiz and Jerry Bailey are flat earth material too.

Because claiming that Raw Times can be compared meaningfully across races, is analogous to claiming that the Earth is Flat.

If Alex Rodriguez and Tommy Lasorda mention batting average, it doesn't make Batting Average a good stat.

And even if you tried to use batting average to reference hitting, a raw comparison of a team from from 2017 when the league Avg was .255 to to 2000 when it was .271 is asinine.

You could get a new car for about $600 during the depression. That does not mean cars were super cheap back then.