Let's handicap a race Friday

[johnhannibalsmith]

Looks like all systems go on in this spot, but if the price drifted up to double-digits on The Great Samurai, I might take a shot.

The Great Samurai has been laying close on the main track for the most part since being claimed. But, he can pass horses and might be the most adaptable runner in terms of running style in a race that I'm not real clear what might shake out in terms of dynamics and pace.

On the surface, he looks slower than other contenders and probably is, but he is also just a young four-year-old that isn't heavily raced and could still be capable of getting a little better - even if it is just a temporary peak.

[TiffaniO]

1 Looks like one fluke race. Trainer leaves something to be desired. Toss.

2 Beat short field two back. Looks like he’s possible underneath unless he somehow walks to the lead.

3 Diodoro to Barrera? Did put the 4 and 6 away in last before tiring. Could steal the race if the 4 and 6 change tactics.

4 Last wasn’t too exciting but could rebound.

5 Consistent but hard for me to use on top. Will use 2nd and 3rd.

6 Last was bad, same race as the 3 and 4. Only shot is to get loose.

7 consistent but doesn’t love to win.

Race seems primed for a closer so I’ll be a contrarian and go with the idea that a few of the speed horses sit, leaving the closers to settle for place and show.



My plays

$1 tri
2,3,4,6,7 with 5,7 with All
2,3,4,6,7 with All with 5,7

$1 exacta
2,3,4,6 with 5,7
3 with 5,7

$100 total

[BCOURTNEY]

GUICK
-------------------------------
PROPHETS CAT
DYNAMAX PRIME
-------------------------------
HOLY WEEK
LIGHT THE VOW
SPECIAL STORY
-------------------------------
THE GREAT SAMURAI

Heavy track bias favors GUICK's running style
PROPHETS CAT strong close might threaten

[Red Knave]

Originally Posted by headhawg

I wouldn't bet this race with real money, but...

/

I'm pretty much there too

/

[trifecta]

I like:
Guick
Prophet's Cat
Light the Vow

[Cholly]

Older who still haven’t been able to get thru this condition? Anything can happen with horses like this.

Last year at this time in an 8f SN1X, Leo O’brien was 0/32 at the meet, but got a slow-horse (16 lifetime starts) to place at 12-1. If I can get 10-1 on Barrerra’s (0/23 at this meet) slow-horse (13 lifetime starts), I’ll put him under the & in an exacta.

[biggestal99]

2 Light the Vow--maybe the mud win wasnt a fluke. Perfectly prepped with a 6F even race

Allan

[Frankie D]

AQU Top circuit in racing. Outsiders almost never win first time.

Race 5 ALW 57000 with a number of horses that don't appear to rise to this level not a lot of speed in the field, usually pass this many with numbers below 80 last race and best recent back speed, becomes definite pass with any other inconsistencies that are added.

1 - not the kind of horse that repeats a win, especially up in class. Toss

2 - speed of the field? , maybe enough to overcome lack of class but the crossover from mostly sprint takes it down. it does have calls that show it could stretch out to the mile. there is that extra inconsistency for passing the race

3 - two races in a row far back but you have to keep him in this stinker.

4 - too far back last. place/show?

5 - some speed (for this race). place/show

6 - way too far back last. Toss

7 - top class this field - relative win signals but this field, mmm


and you wont get near what its worth, about 7/2 to 4/1?

[JJMartin]

Dynamax Prime
Special Story
Guick

[lefty359]

Came 5-1-7 4 was late scratch

[Tom]

was a late scratch.
Must have gotten scared when he saw all those other consistent, fast, classy horses the NY bred program has dumped on, er, given us!

Winner could barely run down the making his 61st career start and still trying to win this bottom allowance.