Arkansas Derby

[AirNate012]

AR Derby Field is set...

1. Rockin Rudy - Mario Guttierez/Doug O'Neill - 12/1
2. Classic Empire - Julian Leparoux/Mark Casse - 8/5
3. Silver Dust - Corey Lanerie/Randy Morse - 20/1
4. Petrov - Ricardo Santana Jr./Ron Moquett - 12/1
5. Grandpa's Dream - Alex Canchari/Chris Hartman - 30/1
6. Lookin at Lee - Luis Contreras/Steve Asmussen - 15/1
7. Sonneteer - Kent Desormeaux/Keith Desormeaux - 15/1
8. Rowdy the Warrior - Luis Quinonez/Donnie Von Hemel - 30/1
9. Untrapped - Mike Smith/Steve Asmussen - 6/1
10. One Dreamy Dude - Geovanni Franco/Jack Van Berg - 50/1
11. Conquest Mo Money - Jorge Carreno/Miguel Hernandez - 15/1
12. Malagacy - Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher - 2/1

[PowerUpPaynter]

Interested to see what Conquest mo money does to help get a read on Hence.

[Robert Fischer]

Malagacy has a slim-to-moderate chance to win outright.
Aside from that chance, Lookin at Lee looks to get a dream-trip, with the likely pace collapse. Silver Dust is attractive in the bottom of vertical exotics, for the same reason.

[boys at tosconova]

1. Rockin Rudy - Mario Guttierez/Doug O'Neill - 12/1

don't know

2. Classic Empire - Julian Leparoux/Mark Casse - 8/5

should win if he runs his race

11. Conquest Mo Money - Jorge Carreno/Miguel Hernandez - 15/1

15-1 ML seems very high for a horse that raced wide near the front in fast fractions, finishing 2nd.

12. Malagacy - Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher - 2/-1

looks like a potentially tough spot at low odds


based on last race they're indistinguishable from one another

3. Silver Dust - Corey Lanerie/Randy Morse - 20/1
4. Petrov - Ricardo Santana Jr./Ron Moquett - 12/1
6. Lookin at Lee - Luis Contreras/Steve Asmussen - 15/1
7. Sonneteer - Kent Desormeaux/Keith Desormeaux - 15/1
9. Untrapped - Mike Smith/Steve Asmussen - 6/1

toss

5. Grandpa's Dream - Alex Canchari/Chris Hartman - 30/1
8. Rowdy the Warrior - Luis Quinonez/Donnie Von Hemel - 30/1
10. One Dreamy Dude - Geovanni Franco/Jack Van Berg - 50/1

[Psychotic Parakeet]

I see this race narrowed down to #1 Rockin Ruby and #12 Malagacy.

Rockin Ruby is the speed of the race, draws the inside, and it could be another O'Neill starter to stun yet another Derby prep race with a less-than-ideal horse. At 12/1, he is very tempting. Malagacy is lucky that the race lacks any real early speed types to the inside of him, so he will be able to get into an ideal position without much of a hassle. If Rockin Ruby fails to fire in the stretch, then Malagacy is the only one I can see winning it. Everyone else will be doing too little, too late. Classic Empire and Lookin at Lee for the show and super spots.

[pele polo]

Classic Empire
Silver Dust
Conquest Mo Money
Lookin at Lee

Super

2nd strongest prep behind Blue Grass and ahead of FL Derby

[Robert Fischer]

Have a 'gut feeling' that distance, Derby points, and the mix of speed and horses capable of moving for the lead far-turn/top-stretch will create a harder pace than projected.
Could be wrong.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Interested to see what Conquest mo money does to help get a read on Hence.

Why wait for that? When there's a potential indicator right now!

You might want to consider that Irap ran 4th well behind Conquest Mo Money and Hence in the Sunland Derby and came back on a short rest to Win the Blue Grass at Keeneland on Sat.

Unfortunately Conquest Mo gets another bad post, but with a better ride you never know.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Why wait for that? When there's a potential indicator right now!

You might want to consider that Irap ran 4th well behind Conquest Mo Money and Hence in the Sunland Derby and came back on a short rest to Win the Blue Grass at Keeneland on Sat.

Unfortunately Conquest Mo gets another bad post, but with a better ride you never know.

Its not that crazy what Irap did last week. He should not of been 31-1. When he don't have blinkers on hes a batter runner. Irap ran a good race vs Mastery without the blinkers last year and considering the beast Mastery is finishing 2nd 5 lengths or so back isnt that bad. A good showing by Conquest Mo Money will only make me like Hence that much more.

[f2tornado]

Classic Empire/Petrov exacta box. Those are the only two that have par pace figures unless something steps up.

[Mulerider]

I see that Sonneteer is only 15/1 based on his Rebel performance, which apparently surprised everybody. But it looks like Richard Eramia has been replaced by Kent Desormeaux. There may a logical reason for the switch, but I think maybe the old, "if it ain't broke don't fix it" might apply here.

[Andrick]

The three 15/1 shots look interesting to me with maybe holding off til the last minute on playing some exactas with Classic Empire over those three if that one can keep control of himself as they head to the gate.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Classic Empire/Petrov exacta box. Those are the only two that have par pace figures unless something steps up.

i expected to see a better petrov in the rebel than what we got. i'm inclined to believe that's more or less the horse rather than the one over 8L better than the 3rd place finisher in the SW. even though that race went in 141. there were a few no chance horses and silver/lee were off a long layoff in that race.

he's harder to group w/ these horses because of it, but i can't think as highly of him because of the rebel and his evenness with 4 other horses and no excuse to much better there.

one note: santana is off lee and on petrov. that move doesn't bode well for lee imo. especially since lee looked like he closed the gap some in the rebel.

petrov is going to get a lot of handicapping mileage for the SW race. i'm not sure it's justified based on competition and his last race

[tanner12oz]

Classic empire puts on a show and crushes with petrov clunking away for a board hit

[Murph]

I am leaning to a wager on Petrov but I'm limiting to a single question for this race. Classic Empire, will he run or is he done?

He refused to blow last month, hoof abcess, back to the baby farms and into some pretty dark w/o form. Too much baggage and I am not going to carry the load for him this year. Win or lose here we'll never get a clear picture of his issues from the connections before the derby. I'll need to decide, based on what happens between now and then with CE >