Does anyone think Afleet Alex will bounce in the Derby? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Bill Cullen · 05-04-2005, 08:21 AM

I'm looking at Afleet Alex's pp's going into this Saturday's Kentcuky Derby and I noticed that each time he ran a Beyer of 99 or greater, he bounced in the following race. Anyone think he's a bounce candidate for the Derby or have any related thoughts?

thanks,

Bill Cullen

Valuist · 05-04-2005, 09:47 AM

Yeah I think there's a good chance of it happening. I realize he was sick for the Rebel and that makes his poor effort there excusable, but it was such a huge move forward in the Arky Derby. I know Bellamy Road and Bandini made huge moves forward also but neither of them were coming off an illness with their big forward move. I also think the quality of the Blue Grass was much deeper than that in the Arky Derby. There really was no quality early speed at Hot Springs that day and AA definitely had no problem showing who had the best acceleration. I also think that since AA has been running in big races longer than the other two, I think he is more of a public horse. But that isn't to say the other two couldn't bounce also. In terms of likely bounce, I'd rank AA first, Bandini second and then Bellamy Road.

Greeley's Galaxy could also be a candidate to bounce but he doesn't figure to be bet anywhere near as much as those three. He could pair up that last race, but there are some negatives, including the poor quality of the rest of that field and the good trip he had. I would say if he's under 10-1, I'm tossing him but higher than that, I'll use him in my tri tickets.

chickenhead · 05-04-2005, 10:05 AM

I was thinking a bounce was in order, running a huge race off being sick, but I'm not sure the effort was all that taxing. He came out of it looking pretty well. He may well run slower in the Derby, but I don't think he will "bounce".

Bandini has a better shot at bouncing, he was in a need to win race, and he ran pretty big going wide all the way. Did he run out of his mind, or just reach his potential, and look good running into a fast pace? We will see, but he'll have another pace to run into.

I'm tossing Greeley. He looks thin and immature, his mile work was pretty scary, I think he does nothing.

Bobby · 05-04-2005, 10:14 AM

He's run fairly consistent figures except the Rebel which is a complete Toss out. If he bounces, it won't be much.

I think he's the favorite Saturday. I still don't know who to bet though.

Valuist · 05-04-2005, 10:16 AM

The one thing that surprised me about Bandini was with all that speed in the Blue Grass, he wasn't far back. He was up pretty close.

There's some talk that the rail was dead at Keeneland on BG day. I'm not sure I buy that. I'll have to re-check the replays but looking at the charts I thought it was a fairly unbiased, albeit deep, track.

chickenhead · 05-04-2005, 10:24 AM

I have heard about that bias as well.

That is the thing I like about Bandini, JV should be able to jockey into a fairly good spot a few lengths off, he's got the juice for that. He ran a 112 pace figure last out, Alex top is 103, in a route it's 99. With Alex I think he may end up in a bit of a trouble spot too far back...depends on what they do with him.

The strategy of the early goings and where they settle will be pretty interesting.

Maxspa · 05-04-2005, 10:50 AM

I believe that if you have followed Afleet Alex's training results at Churchill Downs, you will see he is moving forward off his last race. Besides his training regimen is much different than the normal thoroughbred. The two a days indicate a sound and fit horse. I don't know if he is the best horse in the derby or whether he can run a mile and a quarter but I don't believe he loses because he will bounce off his last race.
Maxspa

Figman · 05-04-2005, 10:54 AM

Since I know Maxspa is a retired horse trainer, I would put great credence in his observations.

LemonSoupKid · 05-04-2005, 11:26 AM

The key always is, in this race, the ability to gauge the horses who are fast, and even more importantly, who is still growing and improving. It seems to me that Alex and Bellamy are by far the fastest horses of all, with BR being seemingly a lot faster than all of them. One has to love AA's experience and adaptation to Churchill in these workouts. I know a few of these guys are improving (Bandini and Noble Causeway), but are they really as fast, and are they improving enough to negate any amount AA or BM might improve? I don't think so. I have a funny feeling though that someone is going to get a late kick and might like the added distance + a bad trip for one of those faster horses mentioned. I'm saying that shocker would be Wilko or Sun King.

We'll see how it goes down. Of all the horses there are only a few a good handicapper can even consider, IMO. The winners last time out did it with such ease that the 2nd place finishers don't even jump into my mind, like in past years.

Lemon

Valuist · 05-05-2005, 01:52 PM

I'm starting to change my mind on Afleet Alex. I see Bellamy Road is 17 hands....just like Point Given, Easy Goer and Risen Star. Those huge horses all overpowered their fields in the Belmont but all 3 lost the Derby. Granted, Risen Star was probably the best horse in the 88 Derby but it took him a bit too long to change gears and get rolling after his wide trip. I consider CD's turns fairly sharp; a smaller more agile horse like AA may have an advantage on Bellamy Road.

Bobby · 05-05-2005, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist

I'm starting to change my mind on Afleet Alex. I see Bellamy Road is 17 hands....just like Point Given, Easy Goer and Risen Star. Those huge horses all overpowered their fields in the Belmont but all 3 lost the Derby. Granted, Risen Star was probably the best horse in the 88 Derby but it took him a bit too long to change gears and get rolling after his wide trip. I consider CD's turns fairly sharp; a smaller more agile horse like AA may have an advantage on Bellamy Road.

yea, Smarty was not anything like ROCK HARD TEN or CLIFFS EDGE. He was much smaller I believe.

Dr. Carter · 05-05-2005, 04:37 PM

Dont like him. Just a feeling that he will regress and not thrilled with training tactics. Was coughing after his last work (not reported) and looks a little "over the top". Bellamy Road has trained great and is not at all like Point Given in physical appearance. Risen Star got a bad ride in Derby, Easy Goer was much heavier than Bellamy Road. He too may regress but he is training as good as a horse can train.

Bobby · 05-05-2005, 04:46 PM

Coughing? Not good for my pick.

Zaf · 05-05-2005, 04:54 PM

Don't think he'll bounce. Last time he bounced was his 2nd start off the winter layoff.

Don't like him , Don't dislike him. Think he'll be in the tri and super for sure.

ZAFONIC

NoDayJob · 05-05-2005, 07:05 PM

Sans scratches, my program picks 12 & 16.

NDJ