2019-2020 HONG KONG

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. October 20, 2019… 12th race meeting of the 2019-2020 year.
Weather report: 83 Degrees 40% of rain Wind: ESE 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 12.15am ET, 9.15pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20191020_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://thoroughbrednews.com.au/news/story/live-streaming-of-hong-kongs-meetings-116841?section=livestreaming


Vulnerable favourite on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 40 (Winners: 3rd & 6th, Second: 2nd) Class 4
Race 4 Meridian Genius (5-1)

Race *797 (Winners: 9th & 10th, Second: 5th)
Race 10 Happy Force (9-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
None

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 2 Judy’s Star (5-1)
Race 3 Rattan (8-1)
Race 3 Pakistan Star (5-2)
Race 3 Full Of Beauty (even)
Race 4 Meridian Genius (5-1)
Race 9 Golden Sixty (2-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 3 Ivictory (18-1)
Race 3 Rattan (8-1)
Race 3 Full Of Beauty (even)
Race 7 Mr Croissant (5-1)
Race 9 Golden Sixty (2-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
Race 8 Beauty Generation (1-9)

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 2 Yichun Blitz (7-2) Was coming off a 2 month freshening after running a game second to Silver Fig on a yielding track at Sha Tin going 6 panels. Was bet down here as the 2-1 betting favourite even with the bugboy Yeung on board and again going 6 furlongs at Sha Tin. He broke well enough and was placed mid-pack after Wong on Nice Fandango was all out on getting control of the early pace, in the turn he found himself three wide without any cover and closer to the pace than figured after Wong put the brakes on the front runner entering the turn, at the 300 mark in the stretch he pulled even with the eventual winner Marvelous World who received a perfect trip sitting right off the front runner since the backside, but due to the vacation he was just a little short and never could head the winner and tired in the last 75 metres losing by less than a length.

Race 7 Beauty Icon (10-1) In his fourth out in Hong Kong after three lackluster efforts picked up the leading jockey Zac Purton which usually is a sign of impending improvement, but unfortunately drew the 12 post going a little over a mile at the downtown course. As soon as he took his first step out of the gate he took a bad one and gave Purton a nice jolt to his senses, then had to be slightly steadied when they passed the finish line the first time. Just before they reached the final turn Zac tried to put him into the race but with no room available near the rail he was forced to go into it three wide, by the time they reached mid-stretch his tank was empty and Zac pretty much wrapped up on him after a couple love taps to see what was in there.

Race 8 Insayshable (58-1) Drew a very tough Group 3 with Simply Brilliant, Ka Ying Star and the up and coming Champion's Way who was going off as the heavy favourite after winning 5 of his first 6 races. After racing for 400 metres he was placed mid-pack by the ofter injured Italian rider Rispoli, then just before they headed into the turn he became slightly rank but soon recovered, in the stretch while saving ground on the rail he refused to split the front runner, then when he came back over and took the gap away Rispoli was all covered up and lost important ground when he had to shift to the outside for running room. While this was going on, the chalk Champion's Way was making his winning move, Insayshable rebroke after room became available and was gaining on him at the wire. Hopefully there will be a change of riders next time out.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 3 Seasons Bloom (7-1)
Race 5 Such A Happiness (6-1)
Race 5 Witness Hunter (14-1)
Race 9 Hezthewonforus (4-1)

Key Plays:
Race 6 Falcon Turbo (5-2)
Race 9 Hezthewonforus (4-1)

Longshot:
Race 5 Dashing Dart (46-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!

I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all 10 races on Turf and 2:
(Class top to bottom) - (2)-Grade-2, (1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 12:15 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
Quite a few of the races this morning look wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1400M C5 (7F)T……....1-14-5 W/ 9-11-6…………12:15 AM

R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T……....2-1-5 W/ 9-6-3……..…....12:45 AM

R#3– 1200M G2 (6F)T….…...6-3-5 W/ 2-4……………..……1:15 AM

R#4- 1000M C3 (5F)T…….….5-11-1 W/ 10-6-7 …….....1:45 AM

R#5- 1600M C4 (8F)T……..….10-11-14 W/ 3-7-2 ……...2:20 AM

R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T……..…1-12-4 W/ 2-9-10…….…...2:55 AM

R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T…….…..1-6-11 W/ 2-3-5 ……...….3:25 AM

R#8- 1600M G2 (8F)T……....…1-3-8 W/ 5-6-9…………...3:55 AM

R#9- 1400M C2 (7F)T……..…… 11-4-5 W/ 2-13-8….…..4:30 AM

R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T……...… 12-5-9 W/ 2-13-8 …….5:05 AM
.
.

[Nitro]

R#1- 1400M C5 (7F)T……....1-14-5 W/ 9-11-6…………12:15 AM

9-14-5-1– Dutch Loss 86% Profit Margin / $39.00 Quinella & $2,154.40 Triple BX ($16,165.20 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!

[jay68802]

Race #2:

[Nitro]

R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T……....2-1-5 W/ 9-6-3……..…....12:45 AM

1-3-9-13– Dutch Win 91% Profit Margin / $12.30 Quinella & $234.00 Triple Bx

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#3– 1200M G2 (6F)T….…...6-3-2 W/ 5-4 …………………1:15 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE: R#3– 1200M G2 (6F)T….…...6-3-2 W/ 5-4 …………………1:15 AM

5-6-4-2– Dutch Loss 15% Profit Margin - Passed / $21.70 Quinella & $261.40 Triple BX ($1,032.00 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#4- 1000M C3 (5F)T…….….5-11-6 W/ 10-1-7 ……....1:45 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE: R#4- 1000M C3 (5F)T…….….5-11-6 W/ 10-1-7 ……....1:45 AM

4-10-6-11– Dutch Loss 17% Profit Margin- Passed / No action on the LS Winner

[Nitro]

UPDATE:R#5- 1600M C4 (8F)T……..….10-6-14 W/ 3-11-7 ……...2:20 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE:R#5- 1600M C4 (8F)T……..….10-6-14 W/ 3-11-7 ……...2:20 AM

3-6-10-14– Dutch Loss 89% Profit Margin / $56.80 Quinella & $507.00 Triple BX ($1,879.60 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T……..…1-12-4 W/ 7-9-10…….…...2:55 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE: R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T……..…1-12-4 W/ 7-9-10…….…...2:55 AM

7-3-12-9– Dutch Loss 68% Profit Margin / Some very late action on the LS Placer #3 - too late to post a change

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T…….…..1-2-11 W/ 12-5-6 …….…….3:25 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE: R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T…….…..1-2-11 W/ 12-5-6 …….…….3:25 AM

1-2-3-12– Dutch Win 71% Profit Margin / $14.10 Quinella