The Derby

[taxicab]

In terms of the win,I'm going with Storm the Court.
He had some hidden stuff I liked:
He ran in two preps(if you will)that I liked alot.
The San Felipe and oddly the La Jolla (on the grass).
That San Felipe was a real good race,they were sharp that day.
The La Jolla was sneaky.....It was a good field and the winner(Smooth Like Strait)is a stone cold runner who tore it up in the La Jolla.
Factor in that Storm the Cat is absolutely not a grass horse,and his second place finish plays well.
Another positive is Peter Eurton has never been afraid to run his horse all over the place,and in real races........kind of the opposite of King Guillermo......he's as battle tested as they get.
The last thing that caught my eye was his workout tab.
Trainer Eurton got to Del Mar and worked STC on the grass three times in three weeks........and then came the La Jolla.
It's after the La Jolla it got interesting,STC went like a rocket in the mornings on the dirt........on a very slow surface he went 59.4 (2/72) & 59 flat (1/74).
I think Storm the Cat is cycling up.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by taxicab

In terms of the win,I'm going with Storm the Court.
He had some hidden stuff I liked:
He ran in two preps(if you will)that I liked alot.
The San Felipe and oddly the La Jolla (on the grass).
That San Felipe was a real good race,they were sharp that day.
The La Jolla was sneaky.....It was a good field and the winner(Smooth Like Strait)is a stone cold runner who tore it up in the La Jolla.
Factor in that Storm the Cat is absolutely not a grass horse,and his second place finish plays well.
Another positive is Peter Eurton has never been afraid to run his horse all over the place,and in real races........kind of the opposite of King Guillermo......he's as battle tested as they get.
The last thing that caught my eye was his workout tab.
Trainer Eurton got to Del Mar and worked STC on the grass three times in three weeks........and then came the La Jolla.
It's after the La Jolla it got interesting,STC went like a rocket in the mornings on the dirt........on a very slow surface he went 59.4 (2/72) & 59 flat (1/74).
I think Storm the Cat is cycling up.

he does have tactical early speed that can carry him, and his last 2 show improvement, but those races were against lesser horses.

the ark derby was a very poor race. that has to be big measuring stick. that and he just doesn't look fast enough.

[boys at tosconova]

making a case for major fed to be used underneath at huge odds.


this horse has had problems and excuses in his last 3 races.

-pinched and pushed back to last in the ID. not to mention racing wide making his move.

-caught very wide ..7/8w leaving in an impossible spot in the winn......

-left in the gate and away slow in the LAderby finishing well to get 4th. he would have been right there if he didn't encounter trouble, imo

sure he might not be fast enough to win the whole thing, but those are legitimate excuses, and before his last 3 races he did beat ny traffic racing wide.

i think this horse is just as good as ny traffic. i think he's a solid long shot to crash the ticket, where as ny traffic will be on everyone's ticket underneath

look at those last 3 works

[depalma113]

Derby Longshot Plays

#3 Enforceable - Last race was very good on a sped favoring track, first effort off a 4 month layoff. He's been the Classic Distance. Fired a 6 furlong bullet workout at Churchill. Looks to be sitting on a big race. Slow speed figures are only negative, but hitting the board at a big price is what I'm looking for.

#12 Sole Volante - Only horse in the race who came through Tampa. That alone makes him a must use.

[crestridge]

THOU 12-1

SOL 20-1

STOR 30-1

MAX 40-1

[Aerocraft67]

Looking for shots that figure to go the distance.

The is most obvious, yet leads the bottom tier to win at 50/1. Dead last in place and show pool at the moment. Better than 100/1 exacta under the favorite.

Good stakes trainer with ideal layoff pattern for this. Late runner, but not deep closer. Tied for third best late TFUS pace rating and surely gets an honest one. Bit of upside in 8th career start (only five rivals have fewer races). Jock is profitable riding routes.

Only three horses show lower TFUS spotlight figs but only as many show anything close to the favorite—and I don't like them for the distance. They all have their shot at a trip, though.

Wx1 Px2 Sx3
Exacta Keybox /,,
Exacta /
Trifecta /,,,/,,,
Trifecta /ALL/
Superfecta /,,,/,,,/,,,
Superfecta /,,,,,,,,/,,,,,,,,/

[GaryG]

HONOR A P

[Psychotic Parakeet]

I see two different scenarios happening. If early speed remains and no one fails to threaten near the end, then I see this happening in order of finish. This one is more likely the best case, and it keeps the favorite streak going:



If all the early speed fizzles out, and the closers and sustained types jump on in, then it would be this scenario:

[jimmyb]

I'm liking authentic. Pace and speed trained by Baffert.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Honor A.P.
Tiz The Law
Authentic
Sole Volante
South Bend
Enforceable
Major Fed

We have similar tastes, except I don't like authentic here

Originally Posted by clicknow

Well I really haven't changed my mind much since beginning of August, except to fill in for new shooters and scratches.

So still using Honor A. P, Major Fed, Sole Volante, and Thousand Words.
Add new shooter South Bend. Add Enforceable on some tickets and leave Tiz off top of a few, but these are the only horses I'm using in exactas and tris:

Honor AP
South Bend
Major Fed
Sole Volante
Tiz the Law
Thousand Words
Enforceable

If playing Super High Five add and to 5th spot.

I'm thinking of using South Bend as a bomber key on a few tickets

[fox13weather]

Sheesh. The on track Churchill odds graphic is awful. Who picked the colors? There are red numbers on a red background. And alternating red black red black ..why?

[gov135]

w/ w/ same w/ same

And ATB.

Good luck to all.

[Irishfever]

OMG I'm an idiot!!!!

I was keyed to the 17 in the pk6 ...had the 1238 in the Old Bourbon. Initially tell myself to use all of Chads horses but decided to cut out Digital Age.

[Onesome]

/

[Tom]

Dime super for $84

/
/


Exacta box $5



***LATE SCRATCH - ***