Your Top 5?

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I listened to a few podcasts and heard several very smart people say they also don't trust the commercial speed figures for the Shared Belief even though it fits with the day.

When I mentioned this here, I thought I was bringing something worthwhile to the discussion. Maybe since all the "sharpies" are skeptical of the figure for that race also, I should be thinking in the opposite direction for value.

That figure "could" be inflated even though it fit with the rest of the day, but Honor A.P.'s overall record is better than the lesser looking horses that finished close to him that day. So maybe they all aren't as good as they look on numbers, but the slowish pace and his trip means he ran just fine and can make the favorite stretch his legs if Sheriffs has him cranked for a new top.

Unfortunately, it was also mentioned that Cezanne is running out of Shared Belief in the 9th race tomorrow in the Pat Day. So that may offer some kind of clue about the quality of that race.

scratched

[GMB@BP]

I like Tiz the Law by open lengths over Thousand Words and Authentic. Never been high on Honor AP, didn't even think he is best 3yo in the barn.

[Aerocraft67]

Posted wagers and rationale on other thread. I like a shot to get the distance under the favorite, particularly .

[CBYRacer]

Good luck, everyone!

I'm going with Tiz the Law in an exacta over Max Player and New York Traffic

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by clicknow

If playing Super High Five add and to 5th spot. .

Bet my messed up a lot of tris and supers. Mr. Big News, his breeding was quite good for going long
I put a little on him
I was sure he'd come in, just thought lower down than he actually did.



I did not like Authentic at all, d'oh

[groupie doll]

Originally Posted by groupie doll

I don't like Authentic much here, which means he'll probably win. The recent defections would seem to increase his chances somewhat.

Yep. I feel like George Costanza in that one Seinfeld ep. I should do the opposite of whatever my instinct tells me to do.

[Jayhawk6191]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk6191

1. Authentic
2. Tiz the Law
3. The remaining pretenders

Nice payday on this call

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The two horses that crossed the line first last year were Raise A Native line. I doubt it happens this year but will use a few in my vertical gimmicks.

There was a thread on here last year about the Raise a Native angle coupled with a sub-38 second final fraction in one of the major preps. As it turned out (according to the thread, I haven't verified it), four of the top six finishers met the angle: Maximum Security, Country House, Improbable, and Game Winner.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

There was a thread on here last year about the Raise a Native angle coupled with a sub-38 second final fraction in one of the major preps. As it turned out (according to the thread, I haven't verified it), four of the top six finishers met the angle: Maximum Security, Country House, Improbable, and Game Winner.

Well that sure didn't point to Authentic this year. No RAN and he did not make any of the "cuts" on final 3/8, final Q, or final furlong from the charts I saw. He didn't even have Dortmund's numbers, who also did not hit the right final numbers to win the derby he ran in. I was just dead set against betting an Into Mischief to win the Ky Derby. And that cost me. I would do it again though LOL
I tracked that final fraction stuff for a number of years when I did a lot of charting (too much work), and did not find it to be "overly potent". I would still use as a piece of the puzzle at this point.