Whales: A chink in the armor?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The game can ill afford the hasty retreat of the Whales...because there is no reliable way to replace the substantial handle that they contribute to the mutuel pools. If these Whales risk extinction in the future...then the game will probably seek to accommodate them even more than they do now, in order to keep them in the game as long as possible.

I agree, the whales have become heroin to the tracks, they are propping up the industry.

[Nitro]

Sorry Dave but this entire thread reads like a “Whale of a Tale” to me.

Sure there may be some heavy hitters here in the states, but please don’t compare your “whale” at Lone Star or Emerald Downs betting $500 to someone in Hong Kong betting $250,000.
I follow detailed tote action at tracks all over the world, and I can comfortably say the term “Whale” is totally relative to the location you’re referring to.

Besides your statistical race betting analysis is completely off base (and that goes for anyone else who tries to rationalize the odds with the O.A. winning results and the so-called betting of whales.)
Why? Very simple: The entire argument collapses because it assumes that these whales are betting every race! (Unless I’m mistaken, the data being used to generate these tall tales certainly doesn’t identify or even verify that a big bet was made on just the winning horse.)
Come on people you’ve got to give these guys a little bit of credit: When playing percentages, passing a losing race is just as important as betting a winning one, especially when the stakes are high.
Your stats seem to also fall short because the odds reflect only a single betting pool: The Win pool.
Are you suggesting that this is the only type betting that anyone makes?

Originally Posted by Maximillion

I do believe they have people on the inside. I used to think otherwise, but have changed my mind.

Hold that thought! It just may come in handy someday.

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Whatever happened to the notion that going to the races could be fun?

It is fun if you know what’s going on and can incorporate that knowledge into your own game. The first step is to recognize (and accept) the fact that you’re Outsider playing an Insider’s game.

[Dave Schwartz]

Nitro,

So, you do not believe that anyone is betting $100m plus per year?

[linrom1]

Who came first, whales or super trainers? Or are they one and the same?

Linda Rice received inside information directly from NYRA racing office! So, whales don't bet Linda Rice?

While speaking of inside information, whales get direct access to the tote. Suppose they are able to discern bets made by connections making winning plays based on historical analysis of those connections past bets?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Nitro,
So, you do not believe that anyone is betting $100m plus per year?

Are you kidding me?!
What kind of a question is that?
Is that what you got out of my rebuttal of your so-called statistical analysis of whale betting influence?.

There very well might be any number of players at that level, but I can also name a dozen or more tracks where they’re NOT playing. I play Hong Kong twice a week and believe me I know exactly where and how much real betting is taking place. It’s a far cry from Stateside betting.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by linrom1

While speaking of inside information, whales get direct access to the tote. Suppose they are able to discern bets made by connections making winning plays based on historical analysis of those connections past bets?

I get direct tote information and have for many years along with many other people, yet I wouldn't consider myself a whale. I know for a fact that the tote analysis I use is formulated based on a "results" driven criteria.

[Jeff P]

If you're paying attention it's really hard not to notice the effect.

Basically, the big money has become more accurate than it's ever been.

If you want to be successful as a horseplayer you have to deal with it.

Imo, you have to out-work out-model and out-think the whales.

Doing that isn't easy. The whales are good. Really good in fact. But they are human and they aren't infallible.

Right now as I type this there absolutely ARE areas of the game that can be exploited by the individual player. I think that will always be true to some degree.

What follows below isn't about modeling - which imo, while not an absolute requirement is certainly pretty close. Personally, I find it to be really useful.

It's about a mindset... a mindset that can direct you towards what to model.

Dave posted something to the effect that many of the whale teams retool once a year and start using new algorithms each January.

One advantage the individual player has over a whale syndicate is the ability to be nimble.

The individual horseplayer in need of a retool doesn't have to wait for January.

A few months ago I was having a conversation with Ron Tiller at HDW. As so often happens, our conversation turned to betting on horses and I made the following analogy:

Horse racing (with 22% blended takeout) is like the Titanic and horseplayers are the passengers.

Imagine for a minute racing has struck an iceberg - is taking on water - and the ship is starting to sink.

What if, instead of the 20 individual lifeboats carried by the Titanic - the ship were equipped with a single lifeboat only?

What if that single lifeboat was a giant inflatable raft?

And what if in the mad scramble to get the lifeboat into the water (and this is the 22% blended takeout part) the crew only managed to get the thing partially inflated?

Much to their delight, the first few real horseplayers who find their way onto the raft discover they are high and dry.

But as more and more horseplayers scramble out of the water and onto the raft:

Things start to get interesting.

At 22% blended takeout, the raft doesn't have enough air to support the weight of all those horseplayers.

Eventually, most areas of the raft end up with such a high concentration of horseplayers that every horseplayer in the area may as well not even be on the raft. They find themselves neck deep in icy water and it's pretty much the same thing as being in the ocean.

But a few areas of the raft - the ones with the least number of horseplayers:

THOSE areas of the raft become elevated and the one or two horseplayers there are high and dry.

But if enough horseplayers are drawn to one of those areas: it too will be pushed down into the water and the horseplayers there soon find themselves submerged.

Most of the whale teams don't have the ability to vacate their chosen spot on the raft at a moment's notice. They've committed to a plan that involves playing the current version of their algorithms long enough to give the law of large numbers a chance to do its thing.

Believe ot or not sometimes that means even the members and backers of a whale team find themselves neck deep in icy water.

But the individual horseplayer? He or she ALWAYS has the ability to vacate an overcrowded spot on the raft.

Imo, our job as horseplayers involves constantly being on the lookout for the best spot on the raft - and not being afraid to go there when the time comes.



-jp

.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Are you kidding me?!
What kind of a question is that?
Is that what you got out of my rebuttal of your so-called statistical analysis of whale betting influence?.

There very well might be any number of players at that level, but I can also name a dozen or more tracks where they’re NOT playing. I play Hong Kong twice a week and believe me I know exactly where and how much real betting is taking place. It’s a far cry from Stateside betting.

I guess I have completely missed your point then.

[Dave Schwartz]

Jeff,

Imo, our job as horseplayers involves constantly being on the lookout for the best spot on the raft - and not being afraid to go there when the time comes.

Everything you've said is true, but I especially like this part.



In order to be even a reasonably successful horse player in this age, one must be willing to reinvent themselves as often as necessary.

In my original post, I was not appealing to the players that have, in words similar to these, '... been doin' it this way for 40 years." Players such as that are not going to change. They are going to continue to do what they've been doing, with an ever-worsening result.

And that is their privilege.

My post was really aimed at the people who have been competitive until recently. Maybe they weren't winning, but they'd developed their process into something was capable of at least getting close to winning.

Such people are certainly capable of adapting. They've been doing it for a long time.

Back when I began in this business, in 1990, I'd get like one call a week from someone who would begin the conversation with, "I'm getting 85% winners in my top 2. Can your software do that?"

I'd always laugh and say, "No. Please tell me your secret."

In November of 2000, a fellow called me up and asked about my software. He told me that he'd supported himself 100% from horse racing for the past 24 years. He'd literally not had a job in all that time.

I assumed it was another 85% guy, so I asked him, "If you're doing so well, why do you need my software?"

His answer was perfect and I instantly knew I was talking to the real deal. He said, "You don't think I am doing the same thing now that I did back in 1976, do you?"

Winners adapt to stay ahead of the curve.

Horse players today will have to adapt in just to CATCH UP with the curve.


Dave

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Most of the whale teams don't have the ability to vacate their chosen spot on the raft at a moment's notice. They've committed to a plan that involves playing the current version of their algorithms long enough to give the law of large numbers a chance to do its thing.

Believe ot or not sometimes that means even the members and backers of a whale team find themselves neck deep in icy water.

But the individual horseplayer? He or she ALWAYS has the ability to vacate an overcrowded spot on the raft.

Imo, our job as horseplayers involves constantly being on the lookout for the best spot on the raft - and not being afraid to go there when the time comes.



-jp

.

The Whale teams may not have the ability to "vacate their chosen spot on the raft at a moment's notice"...but their keen intellect and endless resources will allow them to determine ahead of time when the seat change should take place...whereas the "less fortunate" among us won't be able to make full use of our "nimbleness"...because we lack the mental and physical attributes needed in determining when this "seat change" should occur. They say that the "early bird gets the worm"...but this only applies in the cases where the "late bird" doesn't have the more pertinent information about where the worm is located.

IMO...it comes down to whether or not we feel that we could outperform some players who have WAY more intelligence and WAY more resources than we could possibly muster.

[ZippyChippy423]

Can someone define what they believe a whale is other then the one in an ocean? Is it someone who plunks down a ton of money on 1 horse ? Anyone betting that kind of money is not some great handicapper they have inside info. If that is the case then inside info can be considered race fixing or manipulation. I’ve seen whales get burned plenty of times bridge jumping.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ZippyChippy423

Can someone define what they believe a whale is other then the one in an ocean? Is it someone who plunks down a ton of money on 1 horse ? Anyone betting that kind of money is not some great handicapper they have inside info. If that is the case then inside info can be considered race fixing or manipulation. I’ve seen whales get burned plenty of times bridge jumping.

A Whale is a betting syndicate which commits unlimited resources to this game in order to employ the finest intellectual minds, with the sole purpose of accessing the most accurate computer-handicapping models...by which they can then wager untold amounts of money at a much lower takeout rate than what the rest of us are forced to pay in this game.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by ZippyChippy423

Can someone define what they believe a whale is other then the one in an ocean? Is it someone who plunks down a ton of money on 1 horse ? Anyone betting that kind of money is not some great handicapper they have inside info. If that is the case then inside info can be considered race fixing or manipulation. I’ve seen whales get burned plenty of times bridge jumping.

My definition is that they wager at least $100 million per year.

There are 6 such organizations that I am aware of in the U.S. The best estimates I have heard is that they wager around $1.5 billion per year between them.

Not sure if the numbers still hold up but that would mean something like $1 out of every $7.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ZippyChippy423

Can someone define what they believe a whale is other then the one in an ocean? Is it someone who plunks down a ton of money on 1 horse ? Anyone betting that kind of money is not some great handicapper they have inside info. If that is the case then inside info can be considered race fixing or manipulation. I’ve seen whales get burned plenty of times bridge jumping.

That’s the problem! You can’t define it because it’s all relative to the track being played.
For instance check out these final Win pool totals for some of today’s races:
Race 10 at Indiana Grand with a 10 horse field - $8,460
Race 6 at Evangeline with a 7 horse field - $30,454.
Race 8 at Delaware Park with a 7 horse field - $59,822
Race 9 at Del Mar with a 10 horse field - $271,506
Race 10 at Saratoga with a 10 horse field - $290,616

If there was a whale among those betting on any of these races during a 20 to 25 minute betting cycle you could have fooled me! In fact, other then a few last minute odds changes at Del Mar today I doubt there was a whale on board today anywhere. Oh well, maybe they just don’t play on Wednesdays.

BTW true inside information IS NOT about race fixing! It’s ALL about INTENTIONS! You know, “We’re Trying Today”. Does the past performance data (at any level) provide that very basic information?

BTW Jeff that was really intriguing story, but I was looking for a more exciting ending. Like the whale coming up from the depths below only to demolish the raft and everyone on board.
(Maybe that's too dramatic)

[Fox]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I get direct tote information and have for many years along with many other people, yet I wouldn't consider myself a whale. I know for a fact that the tote analysis I use is formulated based on a "results" driven criteria.

What exactly is the meaning of direct tote information and how much does it cost? Thanks.