Whales: A chink in the armor?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by vegasone

That is mutuels as it says on there....you know...$20 and up


Again..this has nothing to do with how many horses go off at whatever odds...this is just payoffs for each race..........

Yes, I misunderstood.

Sorry, my mistake.

[vegasone]

Not a Problem....


Only sad thing is ....is how fewer races there are now

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by vegasone

Amazing how people see what they want to....there was nothing that I posted that said anything about horses. I could have said trains and everyone would see horses

My mistake...and I apologize for the grief I gave you. Interacting from a cell phone is a bad idea.

[vegasone]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Yes, I misunderstood.

Sorry, my mistake.

But it does correspond with your premise about the higher odds versus year 2010.... but I have been thinking it has more to do with how many people are using computer software(it is your fault) versus it being the whales...


Was much better when nobody else was using them.......

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by pandy

Since when do we automatically assume that whales win? Las Vegas loves Whales, because they lose. I realize that some people assume that there are whales who pound favorites and then get rebates but the rebates for win bets aren't that good. And the computer generated betting syndicates are betting exotics, aren't they?

Delta mentioned that the whales may have inside information, but you can't rely in inside information. Sure, there are so-called "hot" horses that are tipped and win but inside information is generally bad information. I personally know someone who lost a tremendous amount of money paying off jockeys and trainers for inside info in New York.

The whales bet everything, I think they used to bet more in the exotics (ex/dd, I assume the tri & super) but now they attack the win pool just as hard.





As for using inside information, you would have to be a very sophisticated player going in, and demand accurate information from the sources. Else you cut them off.


Relying on the usual hot tips would probably not cut it. I think intent would be high up on the list of things I'd like to know.



There was a pro player years ago that previously worked on the backstretch. He had a network of contacts that fed him information . I have no way of knowing firsthand, but word is this guy did quite well. He was a hard worker too, made sure to be in the paddock for every race , rain or shine. (This is pre computer whales).


PS I think WHALE in horse racing implies that they are winning , where in a casino it just means you have a lot of money to lose. I doubt many computer based teams NET lose, or they fold up quickly if that happens.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

The link below is an article written in 2012 so 6 years old and the info might be out of date. In this article RGS state that their rebate players lose -6% before rebates

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...tting-services

A loss of -6% on big money bet puts them well above the average players. If the takeout for the track is -20% this means the horses NOT being bet by these rebate players are losing roughly -22% (if the rebate players are above average then all the rest of the money in the pools must be performing below average)

The really big syndicates would be even better players than the RGS players

Looks a tough task to beat the whales by betting against them when the horses they don't like lose more than the average takeout. Pittsburgh Phil got it right when he said you cannot win if you take the worst of the odds all the time. Players with no rebate or only a token rebate are taking the worst of the odds all the time and they have no hope of winning in the long run

Sure a day might come when only the whales are left and they will destroy each other betting against each other. But the latest report was that turnover was up 5% YOY. This points to the whales betting more not less so they are not giving up yet. I suspect the whales asked for even bigger rebates and got them. Which would be one reason for the pools becoming even more efficient than they were before. And this means the average player's task has gotten even harder than before

[acorn54]

from what i read, and in communication with parties, about serious big bettors, they solve the problem of late money unaccounted for in the mutuel pools until after the race starts, by using software that predicts the final tally of money and betting their money accordingly.
they seem to be people from wall street that migrated to the parimutuel pools for easy pickings. they are smarter than the average bear, being highly educated in statistics and probabilities, and using their knowledge where there is less competition than in other financial markets.
cx wong, a former modeler for the benter group in hong kong, was an actuary in a previous incarnation and won a medal, in the math olympics in asia. he mentions the many people involved in the endevor that mr benter organized, in his book. they have what are called "videoformers", salaried individuals, whose job it is, to videotape the races and mark on a form, his SUBJECTIVE observations of the events, putting it into a grading system that can be entered as data into the modeler's algorithm. they also employ secretaries to enter data into their computer system. also they have backstretch employees that get the inside poop of importance.
needless to say they are dealing from a significant advantage than the individuals betting on their own with only publicly available info.

[Maximillion]

I do believe they have people on the inside.I used to think otherwise ,but have changed my mind.

[rastajenk]

Whatever happened to the notion that going to the races could be fun?

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Whatever happened to the notion that going to the races could be fun?

It can be if your NOT a Pace Advantage member

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

...I've shared this because I know that there have to be some pretty good handicappers out there that are having a more difficult time than usual this year. Perhaps this will offer you some potential places to look for answers.


So, in my opinion, this is a new way to play.

Thanks for the info. It definitely supports some of the views I have on how the game is evolving.

So Dave, one of things that has set you a bit apart from the crowd (or at least different than my approach) is your process of being able to bet many races, and generate profits by dutching properly. My approach has been to identify "beatable" races, and play those that meet the odds requirements. I can't recall if it was Beyer or Davidowitz who described "prime" and "action" wagers, but that's pretty much what I do.

It seems as if the successful player will have to not only come up with a solid odds line, but will have to discriminate more carefully when to toss the low odds horses. This implies betting fewer races, or in other words, passing on more races. It also implies being able to predict more accurately final odds.

So I would describe that trend as more limiting for the pen and paper handicapper, or even trip and physicality handicappers, as the juicy overlays of live contenders are pounded by the whales. Granted, there will be some overlays created when their wagering action goes overboard on a horse that runs out, but determining that scenario and climbing on the right horse is no picnic.

I wonder now how long the trend continues. We seem to be entering a new stage of the death spiral of whales and rebates beginning to feed on one another - I guess we'll know it's the next stage when handle shrinks and word on the street is that some of the whales have quit.....

[thaskalos]

The game can ill afford the hasty retreat of the Whales...because there is no reliable way to replace the substantial handle that they contribute to the mutuel pools. If these Whales risk extinction in the future...then the game will probably seek to accommodate them even more than they do now, in order to keep them in the game as long as possible.

[BCOURTNEY]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

I do believe they have people on the inside.I used to think otherwise ,but have changed my mind.

Do they limit the visibility of the data collected at the tote companies in a secure fashion? If anyone can access it - then anyone can share it.

[ReplayRandall]

Except for the few that are legit, let the Whale's dead carcasses wash ashore, wherever there location in the world may be.....For those that remain, launder that money as fast as you can through the betting pools, as the Sharks are already circling you too, your demise is at hand.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The game can ill afford the hasty retreat of the Whales...because there is no reliable way to replace the substantial handle that they contribute to the mutuel pools. If these Whales risk extinction in the future...then the game will probably seek to accommodate them even more than they do now, in order to keep them in the game as long as possible.

I can't argue with you, but when racing embraced the whales with higher rebates, the mold was cast - and contraction began. How fast the whales may leave, if they do, is anyone's guess. But I agree, like with state pension funds and Federal spending, the stops will be pulled to keep the game going as long as possible.

With the exception of a just a couple of venues, racing is in dire straits. Unlike the car company Tesla, racing won't go to zero, but the road ahead looks to be lower handle, fewer fans, and thus fewer whales. I don't hear about any whales operating in South American racing, though there may be a few. That's where North American racing is going. High takeout, low purses, sparse fan base.