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Old 09-26-2021, 01:11 PM   #1
Mikym
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Mohegan Sun - Alive For 5 Strategy

Hi all,

Hoping I can get some ideas from everyone regarding how to play this type of tournament. Hopefully I can explain it well enough to make sense.

The way this works in you buy a “ticket,” which you then fill out. Essentially, in the first race of the tournament, you pick 5 horses. If one of those wins, you make it to the second race where you pick 4 horses. If one of those wins, you make it to race three where you pick 3 horses, and so on. The last race, you must pick the winner.

I’ve done this tournament three times now, and each time I’ve made it to race 4, and yesterday, I made it to race 5. I buy 5 “tickets.” I think the strategy for the first three races is pretty simple. Your “main ticket” has your top horses, while “tickets” 2 through 5 has your top horses except for the last pick in each race, and you work your way down picking the horses below. So for example, in race three, “ticket” one has horses 1,2 3. “Ticket” 2 has horses 1,2,4. “ Ticket 3 has horses 1,2,5.

So I guess my question is how would you play race 5? In theory, if you are lucky enough to have all 5 “tickets” alive going into that last race, you could pick your top 5 horses. But what if your last ticket is the only one alive? Then you’d have your 5th choice going into that race. I mean, obviously that’s the point right? It isn’t supposed to be easy to win. (Only one winner yesterday out of 103 “tickets”.) But I am just wondering if anyone has opinions about a more optimal way to play?

I appreciate any thoughts anyone may have.
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Old 09-26-2021, 01:52 PM   #2
davew
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it would depend what the tickets cost, what you get if you win, and how many typically share the top prize.
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Old 09-26-2021, 02:41 PM   #3
Mikym
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Tickets are $10 each. $1000 guarantee.
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Old 09-26-2021, 08:19 PM   #4
davew
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is it a pool where they take 20% or something and the rest split with winners?
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Old 09-26-2021, 08:28 PM   #5
Poindexter
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If I understand correctly you get
5 horses in race 1
4 horses in race 2
3 horses in race 3
2 horse in race 4
1 horse in race 5

If you just took best horses on all 5 tickets in the first 4 legs you would have something like a


.8*75*.65*.50 or about a 19.5 % chance of being 4 for 4. So if you just the same horses on the first 4 legs and use a different horse in leg 5 than you would essentially have almost 20% chance of being 5 deep in the last leg, which would give about an 80% chance of hitting leg 5 for your 5 tickets. So for your $50 your at about 15 to 16% chance of hitting. Break even is about $350.

If I am misunderstanding the bet, let me know and I will try again. But that is one option. But ultimately your playing the card. If you like 6 horses in the race you are stuck with 2, you may want to spread that one, hope for a price and zero in more on leg 5. Like any other bet you want to focus on value when you can(your idea of the best may not be the same as the publics view of best-the further away your picks are from the public the more your percentages will get down, but the more you get paid when you win (and that is the name of the game).
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Old 09-27-2021, 07:44 AM   #6
Mikym
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DaveW no take out. I think it is essentially a way to get more folks into their racebook. They used to do this every other week I think, but the racebook is closed now for renovations and where they have the temporary set up is…not ideal.

Poindexter, you have the bet exactly right. You gave the same answer that I was thinking was probably the way to go, but I usually end up second guessing myself.
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