Is their a website/database that tracks the average size of the various pools at tracks?
I'm mostly interested in the straight pools (WPS) to know when my wager sizing would be capped. For example tonight betting to Place at Prairie Meadows, you couldn't bet much more than about $70-80 without your wager going up above the the 2-2.5% of the pool threshold.
Before I make a spreadsheet and start taking a ton of time to track this myself, I thought I'd ask if this is complied anywhere.
Thanks!
Imo you can still use them to get a ballpark estimate for each track.
Hint: Multiply the WPS amount by about 0.65 to get avg pool size for WIN.
Fyi, I have the data - and am working on getting web pages created that will display current takeout rates, available wager types, min base wager amts, and avg pool sizes.
Right now as I type this it's looking like a little after Breeders Cup weekend.
-jp
.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks www.JCapper.com
Is their a website/database that tracks the average size of the various pools at tracks?
I'm mostly interested in the straight pools (WPS) to know when my wager sizing would be capped. For example tonight betting to Place at Prairie Meadows, you couldn't bet much more than about $70-80 without your wager going up above the the 2-2.5% of the pool threshold.
Before I make a spreadsheet and start taking a ton of time to track this myself, I thought I'd ask if this is complied anywhere.
Thanks!
I have some raw data which "may" meet your needs.
Please send me your e-mail address via private message if you want to move forward.
I was waiting for a profitable system before I worked on this.
take a look at the attached
I input data into the black cells.
this attachment indicates an 1.002 increase in the win pool for the favorite (pgno #5) that generates a bet size of $170. proir to the bet the $1 odds was $3.00, now it becomes $2.99.
Thanks Jeff! That does give a helpful "ballpark." If you're able to get that data together in the future, and kind enough to share it publicly, that would be amazing! Best, Derrick
I'll use the following chart to illustrate my point. Here I am simulating the performance of WIN bets at [a] track with a win pool similar in size to that found at GGX or BM. Using a UDM or spot play that has on paper produced a 1.15 roi over a race meet with 200 hypothetical plays where takeout and the average pool size dictates each additional $100 bet lowers roi by 2 percent, here's what happens:
Code:
Bet Amt Net
Size Plays Bet ROI Profit
---- ----- ------- --- ------
$10 200 $2000 1.15 $300
$50 200 $10000 1.14 $1400
$100 200 $20000 1.12 $2400
$200 200 $40000 1.10 $4000
$300 200 $60000 1.08 $4800
$350 200 $70000 1.07 $4900 <-- Max P/L
$400 200 $80000 1.06 $4800
$500 200 $100000 1.04 $4000
$600 200 $120000 1.02 $2400
Notice that max roi happens with tiny bets. As the player increases the size of his bet his roi drops. I say this shouldn't bother the player one bit. Why? Because as bet size increases so does net profit - but only up to a point - the point of optimal bet size.
However, when bet size is increased beyond optimal bet size then net profit starts to decrease. In this example optimal bet size happens somewhere between $300 and $400.
The same UDM (note: UDM is an acronym for "user defined model", something Jcapper allows you to do) played at a different track with a larger pool (or a lower takeout) would of course offer a larger optimal bet size and more net profit across a sample of 200 plays.
Depending on the pool and the venue it may be entirely possible for the large player to take home more by betting less.
-jp
.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks www.JCapper.com
Thanks, Jeff! That's what I thought just never heard the specific term for it. A few thoughts:
This will obviously vary significantly by race such that I don't think average pool size data by track will help you. For example, the pool size in a given race is a function of many factors:
# of horses in the race, class of the race, day of the week (e.g., less competing simulcasting options will boost pools for tracks running that day), time of day (late night races might attract less handle), handle in preceding races (i.e., race t-1, t-2...t-n), typical growth in pool as post time approaches, etc.
Effective bet sizing requires a model for estimating ending pool size including your own bet based on these factors.
Data for building the model can come from AWD (they should have historical pool totals at least) and charts (they have WPS pool totals and can be scraped; they also have time of day, on-track attendance, # of horses, etc.)
What am I missing here? With minimum live inputs my excell file can be used to determine the maximum bet size to generate the minimum impact on the odds. NO?. ITS WRITTEN FOR THE WIN POOL
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,287
Quote:
Originally Posted by CBYRacer
Thanks, Jeff! That's what I thought just never heard the specific term for it. A few thoughts:
This will obviously vary significantly by race such that I don't think average pool size data by track will help you. For example, the pool size in a given race is a function of many factors:
# of horses in the race, class of the race, day of the week (e.g., less competing simulcasting options will boost pools for tracks running that day), time of day (late night races might attract less handle), handle in preceding races (i.e., race t-1, t-2...t-n), typical growth in pool as post time approaches, etc.
Effective bet sizing requires a model for estimating ending pool size including your own bet based on these factors.
Data for building the model can come from AWD (they should have historical pool totals at least) and charts (they have WPS pool totals and can be scraped; they also have time of day, on-track attendance, # of horses, etc.)
Absolutely.
Without a doubt special event days (KY Derby, Preakness, Belmont, Breeders Cup) are the single biggest outlier - and have pools sizes orders of magnitude larger than pool size on a typical race day.
After that pools size varies by field size and day of week.
Imo, the $2.00, $5.00, $10.00 bettor doesn't have to worry about about estimating pool size. At most tracks a $5.00 win bet isn't going to knock the odds down enough to negatively impact returns.
But the $50.00 bettor?
Imo at that point it's time to start thinking about it.
No. Not at Gulfstream, Del Mar, or Saratoga.
But there are plenty of smaller tracks this time of year with perfectly good races where you definitely need to be thinking about it.
I say that because a $50.00 win bet made early enough at smaller tracks will result in a noticeable odds drop.
From there it's likely others will at least give your horse a second look.
-jp
.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks www.JCapper.com
The above table also illustrates very powerfully why folks who are seriously engaged in the efforts to make money via handicapping almost never share those picks on a forum like PaceAdvantage.
Using the above table, let us say it represents one of Jeff's regular plays, and that his wager unit size is $350 to achieve the maximum absolute profit amount. Let us also say that Jeff posts that particular play a few hours ahead of time on a forum like PaceAdvantage.
Picks posted ahead of time, particularly by a notable handicapper or racing personality, invariably invite tag along wagers. Consider that in this specific example if this "tag along" money only totaled $250, Jeff's profit would be reduced by more than 50%! And in the worst possible scenario, there is a total tag along money amount that once exceeded, this particular play will have a ROI that is negative. When that happens, you don't make a nice profit, you don't make a small profit, you don't break even.....you LOSE money!
Imo you can still use them to get a ballpark estimate for each track.
Hint: Multiply the WPS amount by about 0.65 to get avg pool size for WIN.
Fyi, I have the data - and am working on getting web pages created that will display current takeout rates, available wager types, min base wager amts, and avg pool sizes.
Right now as I type this it's looking like a little after Breeders Cup weekend.
-jp
.
This is a nice table, Jeff. I need to check out your website further. Do you have other types of analysis you compile beyond this?
here is the betting dollars for sar race 1 09-01-2021 showing both the final tote board data and the chart data.
it indicates a maxium bet size of $33 on the favorite, pgno #5 , w/o changing the payout.
Its curious to note that between both sets of data, the tote board win pool sum, the charts win %s , 1/(0dds+1), while agreeing in total, they differ with individual horses
also curious, while sar claims a 15% vig (a booking % of 1.176, the actual book % sums to 1.2012, 17% vig..n
