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07-01-2021, 08:21 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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ValueCapper AVC Portfolio Blind Bet Results
JUNE 2021
Hello All,
As promised, here are the results for the month of June using the Valuecapper AntiValue Countdown Portfolio. Here is what I did for this experiment, and I HIGHLY recommend NOT doing this with real money.
I first pulled all race changes at 12PM EST each day, scratches made after that time were not taken into account because I place all my bets for the day at about noon. I did not actually bet these races, at least not in the way I am doing here (BLINDLY) but if I were to do it, this is how I would. After pulling scratches I eliminated all races that Valuecapper said were Red (Consider Passing) or Orange (Proceed with Extreme Caution). I then looked at the AVC portfolio and placed conditional $20 (paper) win bets on each horse listed as AVC with conditional odds being the Valuecapper suggested odds.
Here are the results
58 BETS
4 WINNERS
WIN% 6.9
TOTAL $ BET 1160
TOTAL $ RET 1404
NET $ RETURN +244
ROI 21%
WINNERS PAID $141, $272, $448, $542
Again, I do not personally bet these this way, and I dont recommend ever just blindly betting any selections. I just am running this experiment to show the power of this particular portfolio, and when I have back ran the data, it shows way more profitable months than losing months, I wanted to see if it would be the same if I didnt back fit the data and acted the same as if I was really betting these. The first month of this experiment went about as I expected, although the win % was a bit lower than the 9-10% I usually see.
For anyone with the valuecapper program, please note, I do NOT use default settings and all of these hypothetical bets were made at noon EST so all scratches were not available which would affect the odds, so if you back run this after charts are downloaded you may see different results. Also please note, I do not bet a horse less than 5-1, so if an AVC horse has a VCP of 7/2 it automatically defaults to 5-1 for me
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07-01-2021, 10:08 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: new york
Posts: 1,629
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it's nice to see someway to get a positive roi with software. if one has jcapper with the j factor (no longer available to new purchaser's as far as i know, one gets similiar results on win pct to roi, over thousands of races. unfortunately with only a 7% win rate, one can not bet very much of ones bankroll to make the return return on one's money invested worth mentioning.
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07-01-2021, 10:55 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by acorn54
it's nice to see someway to get a positive roi with software. if one has jcapper with the j factor (no longer available to new purchaser's as far as i know, one gets similiar results on win pct to roi, over thousands of races. unfortunately with only a 7% win rate, one can not bet very much of ones bankroll to make the return return on one's money invested worth mentioning.
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This is exactly why I am doing this experiment, over at least the next 6 months we shall see. I believe, and have seen, that this portfolio is profitable over the long haul. I do not believe one could bet a huge amount because you are going to have a negative effect on your odds. At some of the smaller tracks betting $1000 on a 20-1 is going to make it a 2-1 favorite or worse. Let's see what happens over the long haul here, this could be a complete waste of time or.......it may not.
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07-01-2021, 06:24 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
This is exactly why I am doing this experiment, over at least the next 6 months we shall see. I believe, and have seen, that this portfolio is profitable over the long haul. I do not believe one could bet a huge amount because you are going to have a negative effect on your odds. At some of the smaller tracks betting $1000 on a 20-1 is going to make it a 2-1 favorite or worse. Let's see what happens over the long haul here, this could be a complete waste of time or.......it may not.
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Nice going Matt....
Do you do any reading of the PP's on your bets?
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07-01-2021, 06:39 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99
Nice going Matt....
Do you do any reading of the PP's on your bets?
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Of course I do, but not for the purposes of this experiment. Here Im betting them blindly (on paper only) without looking at pps just to show what this portfolio can do. There are a few guys who are new to Valuecapper here and this is where I would start.
If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!
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07-01-2021, 06:54 PM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
Of course I do, but not for the purposes of this experiment. Here Im betting them blindly (on paper only) without looking at pps just to show what this portfolio can do. There are a few guys who are new to Valuecapper here and this is where I would start.
If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!
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exactly my thinking.....
In your experiment your going to bet every horse....
But that doesn't mean it has to be a set amount...
Say, theres a horse thats 1-35 lifetime....Does he deserve a $20 ticket?
One of those winners you showed there , CD $44 , he showed a improvement pattern and that he hasn't ran a top fig...
That would be a Prime bet for me.....
Mike
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07-01-2021, 08:01 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99
exactly my thinking.....
In your experiment your going to bet every horse....
But that doesn't mean it has to be a set amount...
Say, theres a horse thats 1-35 lifetime....Does he deserve a $20 ticket?
One of those winners you showed there , CD $44 , he showed a improvement pattern and that he hasn't ran a top fig...
That would be a Prime bet for me.....
Mike
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LOL I knew that was you, no need to give away the identity HAHA. To answer your question, yes that horse is worth a $20 bet GIVEN THE RIGHT PRICE. Price dictates whether a bet is made, not record, trainer, jockey, etc, etc.
You have to remember a horse may be 1-35 lifetime BUT EVERY RACE IS DIFFERENT. We dont know how many of the previous races were close to todays conditions, with antivalue above the horse. What Valuecapper gives me is a good oddsline, if I believe that oddsline which I normally check to see if I do believe it (has the horse shown anything at all recently, if not are the master pace numbers still in the ballpark?) if so then given the proper odds Im making that bet.
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07-01-2021, 08:07 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
JUNE 2021
Hello All,
As promised, here are the results for the month of June using the Valuecapper AntiValue Countdown Portfolio. Here is what I did for this experiment, and I HIGHLY recommend NOT doing this with real money.
I first pulled all race changes at 12PM EST each day, scratches made after that time were not taken into account because I place all my bets for the day at about noon. I did not actually bet these races, at least not in the way I am doing here (BLINDLY) but if I were to do it, this is how I would. After pulling scratches I eliminated all races that Valuecapper said were Red (Consider Passing) or Orange (Proceed with Extreme Caution). I then looked at the AVC portfolio and placed conditional $20 (paper) win bets on each horse listed as AVC with conditional odds being the Valuecapper suggested odds.
Here are the results
58 BETS
4 WINNERS
WIN% 6.9
TOTAL $ BET 1160
TOTAL $ RET 1404
NET $ RETURN +244
ROI 21%
WINNERS PAID $141, $272, $448, $542
Again, I do not personally bet these this way, and I dont recommend ever just blindly betting any selections. I just am running this experiment to show the power of this particular portfolio, and when I have back ran the data, it shows way more profitable months than losing months, I wanted to see if it would be the same if I didnt back fit the data and acted the same as if I was really betting these. The first month of this experiment went about as I expected, although the win % was a bit lower than the 9-10% I usually see.
For anyone with the valuecapper program, please note, I do NOT use default settings and all of these hypothetical bets were made at noon EST so all scratches were not available which would affect the odds, so if you back run this after charts are downloaded you may see different results. Also please note, I do not bet a horse less than 5-1, so if an AVC horse has a VCP of 7/2 it automatically defaults to 5-1 for me
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Matt - for the Race that you hit for $542 wasn't that a Highly Pressured/Highly Pressured Race? which defaults to Late Bias?
Late bias does not show the 9 horse as AVC you would have to change the bias to Neutral for the 9 horse to have the AVC designation.
Unless it is due to your settings as you mentioned in your post.
If I choose the AVC portfolio with my current settings (ValueCapper default) that race is not even listed in the filtered races.
So, we don't know if the AVC Portfolio will provide the same results that you are seeing
for someone else using ValueCapper right out of the box with the stock settings.
Last edited by Kbatch57; 07-01-2021 at 08:09 PM.
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07-01-2021, 08:20 PM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
LOL I knew that was you, no need to give away the identity HAHA. To answer your question, yes that horse is worth a $20 bet GIVEN THE RIGHT PRICE. Price dictates whether a bet is made, not record, trainer, jockey, etc, etc.
You have to remember a horse may be 1-35 lifetime BUT EVERY RACE IS DIFFERENT. We dont know how many of the previous races were close to todays conditions, with antivalue above the horse. What Valuecapper gives me is a good oddsline, if I believe that oddsline which I normally check to see if I do believe it (has the horse shown anything at all recently, if not are the master pace numbers still in the ballpark?) if so then given the proper odds Im making that bet.
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OK...got it...looking forward to your test and future posts...
thxs
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07-01-2021, 08:21 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kbatch57
Matt - for the Race that you hit for $542 wasn't that a Highly Pressured/Highly Pressured Race? which defaults to Late Bias?
Late bias does not show the 9 horse as AVC you would have to change the bias to Neutral for the 9 horse to have the AVC designation.
Unless it is due to your settings as you mentioned in your post.
If I choose the AVC portfolio with my current settings (ValueCapper default) that race is not even listed in the filtered races.
So, we don't know if the AVC Portfolio will provide the same results that you are seeing
for someone else using ValueCapper right out of the box with the stock settings.
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Good catch, that is a Highly Pressured/ Highly Pressured race, then take a look at the Track profile (attached), I normally switch the bias to neutral on these types of races especially given the track profile here. The is a closer but normally is in striking range at 2nd call as confirmed by AcP the who would have been the pick with a late bias was a dead closer who was not within 8L at 2nd call AcP
Edit: I actually play this portfolio so I take a close look at these races, I have not been turning my changes back to straight out of the box. This was a fairly simple call and I will say on red highly pressured race I always turn the bias to neutral and see what it does.....if something catches my eye I will look further. I do something similar on Gulfstream turf races...I switch the bias from late to Early as speed often holds on the GP turf.
Last edited by mhaney0423; 07-01-2021 at 08:25 PM.
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07-01-2021, 08:43 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
Good catch, that is a Highly Pressured/ Highly Pressured race, then take a look at the Track profile (attached), I normally switch the bias to neutral on these types of races especially given the track profile here. The is a closer but normally is in striking range at 2nd call as confirmed by AcP the who would have been the pick with a late bias was a dead closer who was not within 8L at 2nd call AcP
Edit: I actually play this portfolio so I take a close look at these races, I have not been turning my changes back to straight out of the box. This was a fairly simple call and I will say on red highly pressured race I always turn the bias to neutral and see what it does.....if something catches my eye I will look further. I do something similar on Gulfstream turf races...I switch the bias from late to Early as speed often holds on the GP turf.
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Hi Matt,
Thanks for taking the time to explain your take on that race and the methodology that you use. It is appreciated!
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07-05-2021, 12:12 AM
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#12
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Irrationally exuberant
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 740
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mhaney says-- "If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!"
That's the positive, optimistic approach of just about all handicappers but my guess is that if you apply common sense to this portfolio you will eliminate one or more of your four (4) winners and flip it negative!
At least I know I would.
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07-05-2021, 12:25 AM
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#13
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cato
mhaney says-- "If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!"
That's the positive, optimistic approach of just about all handicappers but my guess is that if you apply common sense to this portfolio you will eliminate one or more of your four (4) winners and flip it negative!
At least I know I would.
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My thoughts exactly.
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07-05-2021, 07:58 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cato
mhaney says-- "If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!"
That's the positive, optimistic approach of just about all handicappers but my guess is that if you apply common sense to this portfolio you will eliminate one or more of your four (4) winners and flip it negative!
At least I know I would.
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Yes, that's what happens, and it happens a lot. Even people that are good at thinking outside of the box usually come up with the obvious contenders most of the time. The beauty of using a computer to spot live longshots is that the system can be programmed to rank longshot indicators without bias.
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07-05-2021, 10:42 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cato
mhaney says-- "If a flat bet profit can be made without looking at pps, imagine what can be done while looking at pps and using a little common sense!!"
That's the positive, optimistic approach of just about all handicappers but my guess is that if you apply common sense to this portfolio you will eliminate one or more of your four (4) winners and flip it negative!
At least I know I would.
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It can be done. ask me how I know! I am not going to say here exactly how I do it, but I will say that by eliminating certain race types/scenarios the ROI can be improved over a period of time.
I do not go in and pass certain races or horses on a whim, it is because I have spent hours and hours researching this over a long period of time. I dont care what a horse looks like, because the very premise of this portfolio is betting against horses with POSSIBLE flaws, in which case, the best horse or the logical contenders dont always win.
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