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Old 04-12-2021, 03:12 PM   #1
PowerUpPaynter
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Essential Quality Undersized?

Anyone else concerned that since he is kinda small he could get bounced around a bunch in a 20 horse field?
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Old 04-12-2021, 03:41 PM   #2
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Anyone else concerned that since he is kinda small he could get bounced around a bunch in a 20 horse field?
What makes you say he is small? I don't know any of his measurements, but comparing him to his rivals in some of his races, he's bigger than Hot Rod Charlie and about the same size as Spielberg.

Hot Rod Charlie is smallish at around 1000 lbs.

Spielberg is about average at 1100 lbs.

At any rate, he didn't have a problem in the 14-horse BC Juvenile.
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Old 04-12-2021, 03:46 PM   #3
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What makes you say he is small? I don't know any of his measurements, but comparing him to his rivals in some of his races, he's bigger than Hot Rod Charlie and about the same size as Spielberg.

Hot Rod Charlie is smallish at around 1000 lbs.

Spielberg is about average at 1100 lbs.

At any rate, he didn't have a problem in the 14-horse BC Juvenile.
I thought he looked tiny compared to some of the other horses in his races. Maybe since he is a gray he looks smaller on TV.... Which makes me think, who was the last gray horse to win the derby? Winning Colors - late 80's?
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Old 04-12-2021, 03:54 PM   #4
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.... Which makes me think, who was the last gray horse to win the derby? Winning Colors - late 80's?
Is that a Jokamo?
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Old 04-12-2021, 03:56 PM   #5
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Is that a Jokamo?
Oh yeah 2005 Giacomo... The video of Ken Rudolph rooting him on is a classic...
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Old 04-12-2021, 05:48 PM   #6
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Anyone else concerned that since he is kinda small he could get bounced around a bunch in a 20 horse field?
EQ breaks well and I fully expect him to be near the engine. He's shown strong Brisnet pace figures all the way around the track. I don't think a 20 horse field will be a problem from that spot. Horses like Super Stock and Bourbonic are likely to have more issues.
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Old 08-01-2021, 06:12 PM   #7
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This horse keeps putting himself in good position to win turning for home and then has just enough stamina and speed in reserve to out-finish these other 3yos.

In the Derby loss he was off half step slow, got jostled a bit and cut off, then was around 4 wide on both turns. Getting beaten only a length there was still a very good effort. It was just a tad too much to overcome.

There's obviously a limit to what he has in the tank, but imo he's one of those horses that's a bit better than the winning margins and figures he's running in most of his races. Someone is going to have run very well to beat him in the Travers.
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Old 08-01-2021, 06:46 PM   #8
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He should have been 5L in front yesterday.

He did not look good to me. He had to work way too hard to beat that group yesterday.

He might have needed a race. But I expect he either comes back much better or he backs up next time. I would bet against him
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Old 08-02-2021, 01:22 PM   #9
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He should have been 5L in front yesterday.
I don't think he's the kind of horse that's going to blow fields out unless the horses are terrible. He doesn't have blazing speed or turn of foot.

He uses his limited speed and good versatility to just get himself good enough position to win no matter what the pace. Then he has more than enough stamina and just enough speed to catch these 3yos that are in front of him even if he was used early.

In the Jim Dandy he lost a lot of ground and had to work harder to get into position but he still had plenty in the tank to finish well.

I'm not sure I see the horse that can beat him unless he has an awful trip.
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Old 08-02-2021, 10:34 PM   #10
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He should have been 5L in front yesterday.

He did not look good to me. He had to work way too hard to beat that group yesterday.

He might have needed a race. But I expect he either comes back much better or he backs up next time. I would bet against him
+1
What bothered me about EQ was the way he was moving in the stretch.....his stride kind of shrunk up,not a good visual.
I think he's a bet against in the Travers for sure.
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Old 08-02-2021, 11:48 PM   #11
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+1
What bothered me about EQ was the way he was moving in the stretch.....his stride kind of shrunk up,not a good visual.
I think he's a bet against in the Travers for sure.
I haven’t seen the head on, but i was waiting for him to start leaning in or out down the lane.

I have a strict rule that I don’t bet horses who were swerving in their last start. I might have to take a drive to bet against him next time
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Old 08-03-2021, 02:19 PM   #12
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I think he's a bet against in the Travers for sure.
The chalk usually is a good bet against in that feature. I thought EQ looked good overall in the Dandy. The outside running throughout seemingly dulled his stretch run but looked like plenty left in the tank to go survive another panel. Hard to put too much emphasis on a five horse race as that type of race often lacks the pace dynamics of fuller fields. Equibase figure was a 107 versus a 109 in previous three starts. Average Travers winning figure is a 111 over last eight renewels, slightly inflated by Arrogate's freak 120. EQ can win it but I won't be rushing to a window to play him as it looks like he's reached his peak.
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Old 08-06-2021, 10:50 AM   #13
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Lots of little ones did well: Lady's Secret, Desert Vixen, Northern Dancer
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Old 08-29-2021, 10:39 AM   #14
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Well, he did it again. He had enough speed to keep himself close to a quality horse on an uncontested lead and just enough stamina and speed in reserve to wear him down even though he had to run his last quarter in a ridiculously fast 23.07 according to the official time. He was given a 107 Beyer.

Eventually, he may come up against a horse that’s just too fast for him, but it’s going to take very fast high quality horse. It’s not an an accident he keeps running just fast enough to win. There’s still a little more in the tank and he’s also still developing.
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Old 08-29-2021, 11:37 AM   #15
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There’s still a little more in the tank and he’s also still developing.
And there's little quality in the 3yo division and whatever there was is still dwindling.

A "first ballot Hall of Famer" according to Brad Cox (cuz he's been around so many?), apparently because he's consistent enough to beat runners-up that collectively are just 2 for 25 in 2021 (adding in their 2020 records won't make it look any better)...

No mean feat running down a distance-challenged Le Comte winner. I suppose that Herculean effort will convince his connections that he need not come back out as a 4yo.

Still, things are looking good to complete a pseudo-monster campaign. Cox already has sat down stablemate (and Essential Quality's main rival in the 3yo division) Mandaloun, he also trains the best older horse (who also happens to be distance and pace challenged) in Knicks Go, an allowance horse off the turf won the Pacific Classic, and there was no mention of the BC Classic on the list of potential late season targets from the camp of Mishriff (supposedly the best older horse in the world).

I'll guess we'll have to wait to see if Tacitus starts breezing again in earnest and how the Hawthorne Gold Cup shakes out before identifying his main rival in the BC. You know, besides Art Collector...
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