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11-15-2021, 04:53 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I agree, 40 playing sessions does not appear to be statistically significant as proof of the profitability of a gambling method...especially when the entire world disputes that such a method can even exist. But the thing that has me bewildered is that this man doesn't "chase" by increasing his bet sizing after a loss....as other "system players" do. He is methodical, robotic even...and he seems in complete control of his emotions during the entire betting session.
As odd as it is for me to admit...I honestly feel that he can beat an "unbeatable" casino game.
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The question I have is why would someone who can consistently beat a casino game, tell anyone? Would you? I wouldn't even put that on a forum under some fake name.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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11-15-2021, 04:55 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,548
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged
The question I have is why would someone who can consistently beat a casino game, tell anyone? Would you? I wouldn't even put that on a forum under some fake name.
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Why...does he have anything to fear? And should I?
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Live to play another day.
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11-15-2021, 05:02 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 10,989
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Why...does he have anything to fear? And should I?
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The casino doesn’t have to prove anything. They can simply refuse his action and will if he continues to profit. So yeah, I’d have kept my mouth shut.
Another question: Was this a bet among friends or did it have some sting to it?
__________________
All I needed in life I learned from Gary Larson.
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11-15-2021, 05:11 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,548
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TJDave
The casino doesn’t have to prove anything. They can simply refuse his action and will if he continues to profit. So yeah, I’d have kept my mouth shut.
Another question: Was this a bet among friends or did it have some sting to it?
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I don't think they will refuse his action...and neither does he. He looks like the typical baccarat player...and he isn't the greedy sort who overstays his welcome.
No...the bet is of the "friendly" variety, and I will be happy to pay it off. It would be worth it...because it taught me something new.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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11-15-2021, 05:18 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Location: New Hampshire
Posts: 14,471
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I don't think they will refuse his action...and neither does he. He looks like the typical baccarat player...and he isn't the greedy sort who overstays his welcome.
No...the bet is of the "friendly" variety, and I will be happy to pay it off. It would be worth it...because it taught me something new.
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You describe a friend who now lives in Las Vegas, Ray F. baccarat is his game and half of the time he might spend in the Bellagio.
Last edited by fast4522; 11-15-2021 at 05:33 PM.
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11-15-2021, 05:19 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,548
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TJDave
The casino doesn’t have to prove anything. They can simply refuse his action and will if he continues to profit. So yeah, I’d have kept my mouth shut.
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I thought about keeping my mouth shut about this...but then I thought: How many people keep bragging, online and off, about some surefire casino-beating system? Does anyone really believe them? I think not.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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11-15-2021, 05:29 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,739
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I thought about keeping my mouth shut about this...but then I thought: How many people keep bragging, online and off, about some surefire casino-beating system? Does anyone really believe them? I think not.
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there are guys that claim they can watch slot machines and know when it has the greatest shot at the jackpot.
i mentioned "Blackie" the crap player. just last week i had a high school reunion and met up with an old friend that still works as a pit boss at Mohegan Sun. he tells me this guy is barred from the crap tables there and he doesn't cheat.
i used to play poker all day in the old MGM in Vegas before the fire there, its now Bally's. i had never seen anyone hit the Keno jackpot there in 3 years and never saw a picture of anyone that hit it either. a friend of mine went to Canada where they had a digital Keno (no balls) and he hit the jackpot 3 times in the same day, on the 4th jackpot he went back to collect and they took him out of the place in handcuffs.
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11-15-2021, 05:31 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,739
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one more that everyone knows, the Billy Walters Roulette Wheel story where he beat the wheel for over $3 million over the weekend at the Golden Nugget in Atlantic City
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11-15-2021, 05:47 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I agree, 40 playing sessions does not appear to be statistically significant as proof of the profitability of a gambling method...especially when the entire world disputes that such a method can even exist. But the thing that has me bewildered is that this man doesn't "chase" by increasing his bet sizing after a loss....as other "system players" do. He is methodical, robotic even...and he seems in complete control of his emotions during the entire betting session.
As odd as it is for me to admit...I honestly feel that he can beat an "unbeatable" casino game.
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Maybe his scam is that he tells people he can beat the game, bets them that he can, and knows that he'll randomly have some periods where he's doing really well and get paid off on the bet, but he skips town if he's going bad. 
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-15-2021 at 05:49 PM.
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11-15-2021, 06:10 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
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Is there any way to vary your bet size using card counting like in Blackjack or do they use many decks and shuffle all the time?
The house edge itself is very small so there may be rare instances where the edge changes a bit unless they are constantly shuffling.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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11-16-2021, 07:43 AM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,981
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Is there any way to vary your bet size using card counting like in Blackjack or do they use many decks and shuffle all the time?
The house edge itself is very small so there may be rare instances where the edge changes a bit unless they are constantly shuffling.
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Card counting in baccarat is completely useless. They use eight decks before they reshuffle.
__________________
You will never achieve 100% if 99% is okay!
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11-16-2021, 07:56 AM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,981
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I met a guy about a year ago, who told me that he has a sure-fire system for beating the casino mini-baccarat tables. I, of course, told him that I didn't believe him...and I also placed a wager on that, which he gladly accepted. He told me that I could watch him in action as much as I wanted to...and I should pay him only when I was 100% convinced that he indeed had a winning system. And here is where we stand up until now:
I have watched him play a total of 40 times...and his playing sessions last about 2 hours. 70% of his playing sessions are winners...his winning sessions average more money than his losing ones...and I've never seen him increase his wager after a loss. He alternates between "Banker" and 'Player' in a manner that I can't comprehend...and his bets fluctuate between $25 and $200. He only increases his bets after a win...and always decreases his bet after a loss. Overall...he profits to the tune of about $250 an hour.
Is this enough proof that the man has uncovered the rarest of all finds? Should I now pay him for my disbelieving wager?  |
The time of his sessions are irrelevant. Is he the only person playing or is there a full table. Huge difference. If you are the only one there and the dealer is fast a shoe can be done in under 30 minutes. If the table is full and the dealer is slower, a shoe can last three hours or longer. A shoe is typically 70-80 hands depending on where you play. How many hands does he play per session? Does he keep score the traditional way with pen and cards the casino provides? Does he have a loss limit and a maximum win goal where once he hits it he is finished for the session/day.
__________________
You will never achieve 100% if 99% is okay!
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11-16-2021, 09:28 AM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 647
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I met a guy about a year ago, who told me that he has a sure-fire system for beating the casino mini-baccarat tables. I, of course, told him that I didn't believe him...and I also placed a wager on that, which he gladly accepted. He told me that I could watch him in action as much as I wanted to...and I should pay him only when I was 100% convinced that he indeed had a winning system. And here is where we stand up until now:
I have watched him play a total of 40 times...and his playing sessions last about 2 hours. 70% of his playing sessions are winners...his winning sessions average more money than his losing ones...and I've never seen him increase his wager after a loss. He alternates between "Banker" and 'Player' in a manner that I can't comprehend...and his bets fluctuate between $25 and $200. He only increases his bets after a win...and always decreases his bet after a loss. Overall...he profits to the tune of about $250 an hour.
Is this enough proof that the man has uncovered the rarest of all finds? Should I now pay him for my disbelieving wager? |
I say pay your "friendly" bet off. You could play all sorts of BS games with the man and say it is not statistically significant (which it probably isn't), that you are not 100% satisfied or go on and on. The point is he plays 40 sessions for a total of 80 hours. I would think anyone would bet he wouldn't win in 40 sessions or 80 hours of play but he did and he has beaten the unbeatable casino at their game. He may never win again but this guy has balls and he put his money where his mouth is. Pay him. He deserves it IMO.
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11-16-2021, 11:10 AM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 2,021
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All casino games can be beat, either by cheating, advantage play, or luck in the short term. Seems like by watching it is just luck and his betting "system".
I am surprised no one has mentioned Phil Ivey who took a couple casinos for millions in Baccarat, by edge sorting.
For me, I would have to see 1000+ hours of play. 80 hours is too insignificant.
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05-01-2023, 10:35 AM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,630
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interesting documentary on an advantage player
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