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Old 10-04-2021, 05:40 AM   #31
Half Smoke
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his home base was for a long time Laurel/Pimlico - I'm also from the DC area - Laurel is close by - that's also where I played

one day I saw him in the pay for seating area betting off the Equibase program - he didn't feel he needed the Form with his own figures_________(-:\

probably he was just making his action style bets that day - not any of his big bets


in 1990 he hit Laurel's "double triple" for $195,000 and a year later hit it for $134,000

of course, $195K - according to dollartimes.com - $195K in 1990 is roughly equal to about $402K today

$134K in 1991 is roughly equal to $261K today

as far as I know the "double triple" bet doesn't exist anymore - I could be wrong - I don't play those type of exotics - a quick google search of "double triple bet in horse racing" came up empty



the link is a pretty good short bio of the man





https://www.cigaraficionado.com/arti...ndycapper-7603


.
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Old 10-04-2021, 06:13 AM   #32
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back in the day, at Laurel, we all called the Trifecta the "Triple"



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Old 10-04-2021, 09:35 AM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
__________


his home base was for a long time Laurel/Pimlico - I'm also from the DC area - Laurel is close by - that's also where I played

one day I saw him in the pay for seating area betting off the Equibase program - he didn't feel he needed the Form with his own figures_________(-:\

probably he was just making his action style bets that day - not any of his big bets


in 1990 he hit Laurel's "double triple" for $195,000 and a year later hit it for $134,000

of course, $195K - according to dollartimes.com - $195K in 1990 is roughly equal to about $402K today

$134K in 1991 is roughly equal to $261K today

as far as I know the "double triple" bet doesn't exist anymore - I could be wrong - I don't play those type of exotics - a quick google search of "double triple bet in horse racing" came up empty



the link is a pretty good short bio of the man


https://www.cigaraficionado.com/arti...ndycapper-7603


.
The Twin Trifecta only exists at a small amount of racetracks; you’re more likely to see a bet like this at a dog track where it is still popular. I’m surprised more tracks don’t implement the Twin Tri, but they would rather fleece their customers with these ripoff Jackpot bets.
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Old 10-04-2021, 11:52 AM   #34
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I echo all the positive sentiments here. I owe my love of statistical information wedded to the great sport of horseracing to Andy when, joining the Sports Illustrated book club in high school and forgetting to cancel most of the monthly offerings, Picking Winners arrived in my mailbox.

With My 50k year, Andy broached the subject of trip handicapping, expanding upon it in two successive works. For someone who followed his outlook on the game slavishly, I dove headlong into that aspect of handicapping, fascinated by knowing something the public doesn't know, devoting roughly my entire handicapping career to it and becoming virtually a contrarian to the conventional interpretation of every race for years. The finish of races were a mirage, and the critical information was often well before the stretch.

Once I encountered Bill Benter and his wannabes, publishing databases documenting the public as collectively the best handicapper, supported by Surowiecki's Wisdom of the Crowds, I realized that trip handicapping likely comprises about 15% of the contribution to an outcome, race in, race out. About the cumulative equivalent of the win pct. of the bottom tier of the average race (5th ranked odds to longest chance).

That's a lot of sitting on one's hands.
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Old 10-04-2021, 01:18 PM   #35
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Beyer is the man

Recently bought the Beyer book;
"My $50,000 Year at the Races"
copy published 1978

first Beyer book I've purchased

very enjoyable thus far. 4.5 or 5/5


he's always been a great voice of the game

Media has changed, the game has changed, and there will never be another Andy Beyer
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Old 10-04-2021, 01:19 PM   #36
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I had the pleasure of meeting Andy three times - at Laurel with a Sartin group, Commodore Downs and Niagara Falls OTB. He was very cordial and generous with his time answering questions and just chatting horses. A perfect "face" of racing.

I met his partner Mark Hopkins twice at FL when was doing seminars. Dittos him! He is a guy I wish would do a book- he taught me a lot about digging into a race.
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Old 10-04-2021, 01:25 PM   #37
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Surowiecki's Wisdom of the Crowds,
How did you like this book?

Recently skimming WoC and I'm a little worried that I may have missed some insights. General feeling = perceived it as a modern/in-depth "**Efficient Market Hypothesis". Is that the intended message?


**Obviously not something I feel is true 100% of the time, but even skimming the book gave me a bunch of ideas/inspirations...
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Old 10-04-2021, 02:06 PM   #38
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How did you like this book?

Recently skimming WoC and I'm a little worried that I may have missed some insights. General feeling = perceived it as a modern/in-depth "**Efficient Market Hypothesis". Is that the intended message?


**Obviously not something I feel is true 100% of the time, but even skimming the book gave me a bunch of ideas/inspirations...
I didn't read it straightforwardly, but gathered its point from excerpts as well as the Amazon reviews, Steven Crist references to it, etc. As mentioned, I think its point is well represented in parimutuel betting, which seems to meet the four criteria for WOC being met as I understand them (diverse opinion, independence in forming opinion, balancing of errors, no weighting for single expert opinion).

My point was that based upon Andy's emphasis, I chose a "specialist" path that I don't think he even pursued beyond obvious pace scenarios, good races/ saved ground twice and now widest, etc. His "kindergarten level" judgements.

After a few years of watching jockey's hands, accelaration, position on the track, etc., I would end up asking myself, "What am I supposed to be seeing"? I switched to using the figures contrarily. The lower the figure the tougher the trip, and in the end attempting to visualizing ability. I made visual charts of the points of call (not realizing Steve Chaplin did this for harness), detecting where a horse made his move prior to the stretch in terms of pace and position on the track, all in the attempt to upgrade an obviously bad looking horse.

But when I slowly realized the public was the collective expert, from some data presented by computer handicappers, I knew I had to estimate again the impact of trips, i.e., the impact of Andy's devoting significant writing to it.
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Old 10-04-2021, 02:40 PM   #39
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I made visual charts of the points of call (not realizing Steve Chaplin did this for harness), detecting where a horse made his move prior to the stretch in terms of pace and position on the track, all in the attempt to upgrade an obviously bad looking horse.
IMO, those Steve Chaplin books are underrated. I skimmed one of them again just last week.

I think he had a very good model for thinking about races. The problem is translating pre stretch energy and closing ability into numbers that are comparable at different distances and on different surfaces for thoroughbreds is a bit tougher than for harness racing.
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Old 10-04-2021, 03:03 PM   #40
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He retired at age 73. I think that's a full career.

Retiring from one thing (being a columnist) does not mean he's retired, by any means. I realize most people know that so I'm not picking on the statement.

Andy is still hard at work overseeing the team that makes figures around the country, as well as doing some of the work himself.
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Old 10-04-2021, 03:12 PM   #41
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IMO, those Steve Chaplin books are underrated. I skimmed one of them again just last week.

I think he had a very good model for thinking about races. The problem is translating pre stretch energy and closing ability into numbers that are comparable at different distances and on different surfaces for thoroughbreds is a bit tougher than for harness racing.
I sensed in Chaplin what Beyer's "Charlie" was getting at with thoroughbreds, but from Andy's descriptions Charlie didn't sit down with charts or quantify. Actually Chaplin didn't either, preferring "Very Good shape...Poor" etc., and that shape was a matter of "feel".

After tinkering briefly with Chaplin and thoroughbreds, I gave up. There is no correlation between inherent running styles in thoroughbreds that, though also decelerating, label them "closers" and others "early speed". Stretch performance alone cannot be the criteria for ability and "shape" in thoroughbreds, regardless of pre stretch energy.

In my visual days, I did gain the knowledge that it takes some strides before a horse will accelerate when asked, dependent upon the degree of urging. Going from restraint to a drive seemed to me similar to a car being floored. Lots of initial spinning of wheels. One of several reasons I seldom incorporate fractional times. Too simplistic.
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Old 10-04-2021, 03:44 PM   #42
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After tinkering briefly with Chaplin and thoroughbreds, I gave up. There is no correlation between inherent running styles in thoroughbreds that, though also decelerating, label them "closers" and others "early speed". Stretch performance alone cannot be the criteria for ability and "shape" in thoroughbreds, regardless of pre stretch energy.

In my visual days, I did gain the knowledge that it takes some strides before a horse will accelerate when asked, dependent upon the degree of urging. Going from restraint to a drive seemed to me similar to a car being floored. Lots of initial spinning of wheels. One of several reasons I seldom incorporate fractional times. Too simplistic.
1. IMO, stretch performance works better for turf racing when combined with closing times, but the pre stretch energy part of it and the relationship to the closing times is still an enigma to me when you are talking about different distances and turf surfaces.

2. Very interesting insight about "spinning wheels".
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Old 10-04-2021, 05:30 PM   #43
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to throw my two cents in - FWIW


I think there are a few (very few) freaks who beat racing making lots of bets

as they do betting sports

as for the rest of us - are only hope to beat racing is in being very selective



or at least betting much more on our prime bets than when we bet only because we crave action



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Old 10-04-2021, 09:46 PM   #44
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The Winning Horseplayer, was a seminal book for me, and how to play the races. I still refer to it on an annual basis.
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Old 10-04-2021, 09:52 PM   #45
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If Andrew Beyer never saw a horse race and became just another sportswriter, he'd be viewed today as one of the greatest in that department as well.


Try and read some of his old football columns in The Washington Post. One of the most prolific sportswriters I ever read. Maybe that's why his handicapping books are held in high regard today, written many, many years ago -- they were written by a GREAT writer.
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