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09-03-2021, 08:17 AM
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#76
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 6
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I think a good bottle of single malt would be good
Cheers
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09-03-2021, 08:52 AM
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#77
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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We have something similar to your AVC horses called NEGS in HTR.
I'm sure the is some sort of similarities between them.
The chart below shows the ROI and win % for horses via number of negative's.
PIX #1 shows ALL Horses
Looking at that , you say ahhhh...horses with more than 2 NEG's are quite a few and maybe the gems will be there
PIX #2
ALL horses going off 2-1 and less....
Selections not to many for a years worth of data
bottom line , the favorites will still win the race
Mike
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1.JPG (69.2 KB, 32 views) |
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c.JPG (76.8 KB, 25 views) |
Last edited by geroge.burns99; 09-03-2021 at 08:54 AM.
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09-03-2021, 08:59 AM
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#78
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99
We have something similar to your AVC horses called NEGS in HTR.
I'm sure the is some sort of similarities between them.
The chart below shows the ROI and win % for horses via number of negative's.
PIX #1 shows ALL Horses
Looking at that , you say ahhhh...horses with more than 2 NEG's are quite a few and maybe the gems will be there
PIX #2
ALL horses going off 2-1 and less....
Selections not to many for a years worth of data
bottom line , the favorites will still win the race
Mike
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Of course favorite win, unfortunately approaching 40% of the time nowadays. That doesn't mean you cannot be profitable betting against them because they also lose 60% of the time.
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09-03-2021, 04:02 PM
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#79
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
Well folks, I have to report it was an absolutely atrocious month for AVC horses, by far and away the worst month I have seen since I have owned Valuecapper, which dates back > 3years. I will say that fortunately I was in Hawaii August 1-8 without my laptop so I was fortunate to miss out on 12 losers totaling $240 worth of losses but I do include those losses here so as not to skew how bad it truly was, so without further adieu.......
53 BETS
2 WINNERS
WIN% = 3.77
TOTAL BET $1060
TOTAL RETURNED $346
NET RETURN -$714
ROI -67.36%
WINNERS PAID $230 and $116
So this brings our running totals since June 1st 2021 to
159 BETS
12 WINNERS
WIN% = 7.55
TOTAL BET $3180
TOTAL RETURNED $3300
NET RETURN +$120
ROI 3.77%
Still ahead but almost just spinning our wheels.
Now its almost time to tell you all what I already knew about this when I said in post #5 of this thread
To which Cato, PA, and Pandy all said I was wrong in posts 12, 13, and 14.
But before I bother to tell this, I want someone here to seriously consider what type of races could be eliminated to make the ROI on this go seriously up from 3.77% to 46.14%. Consider the name of this profile we are using is called ANTIVALUE COUNTDOWN. Antivalue is considered to be LAYOFFS, HARD LAST RACE, NEGATIVE CLASS DROP, POOR RECENT FORM, POOR LAST RACE, HARD LAST RACE, HARD RACE OFF LAYOFF, MAIDEN CLAIMING WINNER WITHOUT SUFFICIENT CLASS DROP.
Hint, LAYOFFS is key, what type of horses typically run well off layoffs? Or, a better question, which class(es) of race would one expect layoff horses to run well?
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It takes a lot of integrity to publicly post an atrocious month of betting, when no one knows that it ever took place. It's during the losing months that the classy guys rise to the top. I take my hat off to you.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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09-03-2021, 06:26 PM
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#80
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2021
Posts: 8
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Hey Matt, this really is amazing work, and very valuable. Thanks for doing this!
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09-03-2021, 08:26 PM
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#81
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
Hey Kbatch,
Appreciate your comments and you are correct, this is not a get rich quick scheme. For me this is just a hobby and I am perfectly happy to pay for my data and maybe buy a bottle of boubon and a dinner each month. Matter of fact I would say you would be hard pressed to show me one person who generates a "supplemental income" from win betting alone.
One must remember, this is one of my hobbies, along with drinking bourbon, playing guitar, smoking meat/cooking, watching football, and working out. Plus I still work 40 hours a week, have a 17YO daughter to run around and serve as her roadie/sound guy for her shows. So I dont have time to even watch too many races, more or less, break a race down, and watch the odds board and structure bets. I place all my bets at noon eastern conditionally and I may look at results once or twice a day.
AVC is just one of the portfolios I use, it is not necessarily the most profitable, but in my 3 years with Valuecapper it is the most consistent. At any rate, I think like you said its all a matter of what you are trying to achieve in this game. I will say that a lot of the guys who play this game as a career or as a supplemental income almost always end up selling books or software or picks to supplement their supplemental income. What does that tell you? As for me, if I had to depend on betting horses for any type of income, it would take the enjoyment out of it for me.
Best,
Matt
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Hi Matt,
Thanks for the reply and the explanation of why you play the Horses!
From your comments, I guess I may be setting my expectations a little too high!
Regards.
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09-04-2021, 07:38 AM
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#82
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kbatch57
Hi Matt,
Thanks for the reply and the explanation of why you play the Horses!
From your comments, I guess I may be setting my expectations a little too high!
Regards.
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I certainly did not mean to discourage, I am not saying it can't be done. I honestly think I could eek out a meager living by just playing the horses, but it would take a helluva a lot more work than Im willing to put into it. I am sure there are guys on this board that do quite well and I am 100% sure there are guys on this board who have forgotten more about handicapping than I will ever know!
Best,
M
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09-04-2021, 07:43 AM
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#83
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
It takes a lot of integrity to publicly post an atrocious month of betting, when no one knows that it ever took place. It's during the losing months that the classy guys rise to the top. I take my hat off to you.
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Thank you Thask, I am a glutton for punishment I guess!! Actually, I believe it is very important to show these losing months, I have always said that they happen....and they happen frequently, although I cant recall one quite this bad.
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10-01-2021, 11:00 AM
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#84
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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SEPTEMBER 2021 RESULTS
Hello All,
Happy to report that we got back to our winning ways in September
33 BETS
3 WINNERS
WIN% = 9.09
TOTAL BET $660
TOTAL RETURNED $916
NET RETURN $256
ROI 38.79%
WINNERS PAID $296, $430, $190
This brings our season totals since June 1st to
192 BETS
15 WINNERS
WIN% = 7.81
TOTAL BET $3840
TOTAL RETURNED $4216
NET RETURN +$376
ROI 9.79%
If we eliminate everything but claiming races in Sept we lose one winner but win% and ROI are barely effected.
23 BETS
2 WINNERS
WIN% = 8.69
TOTAL BET $460
TOTAL RETURNED $620
NET RETURN $160
ROI 34.78%
WINNERS PAID $430, $190
Only Claimers for the season gives us
124 BETS
12 WINNERS
WIN% = 9.67
TOTAL BET $2480
TOTAL RETURNED $3572
NET RETURN $1092
ROI 44.03%
There are fewer and fewer of these races as we head into Fall/Winter but I will keep this going for at least a few more months
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10-01-2021, 12:10 PM
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#85
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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Thxs Matt...appreciate it....
A few more positive months will pay for the Data..........
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10-01-2021, 12:25 PM
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#86
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Hey Mike,
I normally am able to pay for data every month, AVC is not all I bet. Here's Sept for me from TwinSpires. Keep in mind, I place all of these bets regardless of what time they run at noon eastern, often without scratches and or weather. I do download what scratches are available about 11:30EST but I dont normally look again after that. Nothing earth shattering here, basically a 15% ROI and about an 11% win percentage which is generally in the ballpark for what I average. See attached
Tot INV Tot Ret NET ROI WIN
3990 4621 $631 15.80% 11.11%
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10-01-2021, 02:56 PM
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#87
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
Hey Mike,
I normally am able to pay for data every month, AVC is not all I bet. Here's Sept for me from TwinSpires. Keep in mind, I place all of these bets regardless of what time they run at noon eastern, often without scratches and or weather. I do download what scratches are available about 11:30EST but I dont normally look again after that. Nothing earth shattering here, basically a 15% ROI and about an 11% win percentage which is generally in the ballpark for what I average. See attached
Tot INV Tot Ret NET ROI WIN
3990 4621 $631 15.80% 11.11%
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I knew your were holding out on me
thats some nice work!!!
theres a lot of people that will say a 11% win % won't get you anywhere...
Your the proff!!!
Last edited by geroge.burns99; 10-01-2021 at 02:58 PM.
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10-01-2021, 03:16 PM
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#88
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DJ M.Walk
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Compton, CA!
Posts: 2,072
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
Hey Mike,
I normally am able to pay for data every month, AVC is not all I bet. Here's Sept for me from TwinSpires. Keep in mind, I place all of these bets regardless of what time they run at noon eastern, often without scratches and or weather. I do download what scratches are available about 11:30EST but I dont normally look again after that. Nothing earth shattering here, basically a 15% ROI and about an 11% win percentage which is generally in the ballpark for what I average. See attached
Code:
Tot INV Tot Ret NET ROI WIN
3990 4621 $631 15.80% 11.11%
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10-01-2021, 05:05 PM
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#89
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Speed Figure
[/code]
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Thanks man, I have no.clue how you did that, but it looks like it did when I posted it!! Awesome !!
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10-01-2021, 06:50 PM
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#90
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 742
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Matt, since you place bets all at one time, what's your criteria to
be reasonably sure you will get your price?
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