A Mountaineer Handicapping Question

[dryrunguy]

I was going to pose this question to mountaineerman in a PM, but I figured other folks might be interested in the answer, so I went this route.

I've been playing Pick 4s A LOT at Mountaineer lately, but one thing consistently throws me for a loop. And that is...

Horses coming in from other tracks and no previous races at Mountaineer. I see a decent number of horses on every card with no track record at Mountaineer and are coming in from Thistledown, Mahoning, Indiana Grand, Monmouth, etc. These horses almost invariably are in rather poor form. Last week, there was a horse on the card that had done virtually all of its previous running at Golden Gate on turf or synthetic--but was set to run on dirt at Mountaineer. I had no idea what to do with that one.

Is there any fairly consistent rhyme or reason to previous dirt performances at other tracks (let's stick with fast dirt tracks for simplicity) and how that dirt form translates at Mountaineer? E.g., horses coming in from Thistledown generally do or do not tend to like fast Mountaineer dirt? Horses coming in from Mahoning or Belterra generally do or do not tend to like fast Mountaineer dirt?

I realize each horse is unique. For example, last weekend I learned that my filly loved the fast dirt at Churchill but didn't much care for the fast dirt at Keeneland. She's not alone, either.

I'm just wondering about general correlations, if any, or if it's just a total crap shoot that mysteriously varies from one horse to another. Any insights would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

[sharkey11]

far be it from me to give advice on handicapping but i would try checking trainer paterns for that. some bring them in for a fire sale others want a purse badly some are told by owners to grab a purse anwhere. from what i rember about MNR track seems muddy all the time try checking how the horse runs on the wet track

[dryrunguy]

Originally Posted by sharkey11

far be it from me to give advice on handicapping but i would try checking trainer paterns for that. some bring them in for a fire sale others want a purse badly some are told by owners to grab a purse anwhere. from what i rember about MNR track seems muddy all the time try checking how the horse runs on the wet track

Thanks. If the track is off, then I skip the sequence. That's a rule regardless of track. I'm still learning how to do this, and every time I have tried to handicap sequences at off tracks, I've been way off. I also won't do a sequence if there's more than one race in the sequence at a mile or longer. I am not good at speed scenarios yet. I'll learn that later.

[jay68802]

Class of the track the horse is coming from. Trainer, high percent. A subtle thing to look at is how fast is the track they have been running on. I prefer slower tracks. This is a fun track to figure out, have fun. And remember the guy that sets the morning line is pretty good.

[dryrunguy]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Class of the track the horse is coming from. Trainer, high percent. A subtle thing to look at is how fast is the track they have been running on. I prefer slower tracks. This is a fun track to figure out, have fun. And remember the guy that sets the morning line is pretty good.

Like!

I've been dying to ask: I assume mountainman does the morning line and also does the commentary I see between races on TVG?

Whomever does the morning line at Mountaineer does an exceptionally good job. I am sometimes able to get around the ML favorite, but I've actually had better luck getting ML favorites on overlays.

As for the person who does the commentary between races on TVG (I LOVE hearing rustling papers), which I rarely get to watch because I'm the primary cook in this house and 7-8 p.m. is my main cooking time, he and I tend to see most races in alarmingly similar ways. I spend an awful lot of time nodding my head when I have the chance to listen.

That said, I managed to get around the MLs in all three races in the early Pick 3 tonight at Mountaineer--with a payout of $258.20, which more than covered my losing ticket for the early Pick 4. (I couldn't find an angle for Key to the Nile in Race 2. So did just about everyone else--went off at 39/1.) But I had all three MLs on my ticket. And the ONLY reason I had the 9 (Lafleur, a 5-year-old 0/28 maiden ) in Race 3 is because I simply refused to single the 6. Hated that field. After that, I managed to find 4/1 and 9/1 winners.

I skipped the late Pick 4, though. Just not enough time to properly digest them.

Mountaineer has by far become my favorite track to play. Very challenging, I think. But I'm still working out the kinks in my handicapping there. Hence, this thread.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by dryrunguy

Like!

I've been dying to ask: I assume mountainman does the morning line and also does the commentary I see between races on TVG?

Whomever does the morning line at Mountaineer does an exceptionally good job. I am sometimes able to get around the ML favorite, but I've actually had better luck getting ML favorites on overlays.

As for the person who does the commentary between races on TVG (I LOVE hearing rustling papers), which I rarely get to watch because I'm the primary cook in this house and 7-8 p.m. is my main cooking time, he and I tend to see most races in alarmingly similar ways. I spend an awful lot of time nodding my head when I have the chance to listen.

That said, I managed to get around the MLs in all three races in the early Pick 3 tonight at Mountaineer--with a payout of $258.20, which more than covered my losing ticket for the early Pick 4. (I couldn't find an angle for Key to the Nile in Race 2. So did just about everyone else--went off at 39/1.) But I had all three MLs on my ticket. And the ONLY reason I had the 9 (Lafleur, a 5-year-old 0/28 maiden ) in Race 3 is because I simply refused to single the 6. Hated that field. After that, I managed to find 4/1 and 9/1 winners.

I skipped the late Pick 4, though. Just not enough time to properly digest them.

Mountaineer has by far become my favorite track to play. Very challenging, I think. But I'm still working out the kinks in my handicapping there. Hence, this thread.

Hi...doing the line is SUCH a thankless job at mnr. The win pool just can't handle some of the forces that bet into it, thus one or two big bettors can completely dictate the odds. Also, since I do the show at night and we scratch the next morning, my day job as ast racing sec, to be honest, sometimes requires me to rush through the process (and often without beyers), which is never smart.

Pertaining to Monday's races, I did make some positive comments about Key to the Nile, but could KICK myself for not taking them further.

And concerning invaders and feeder tracks, I promise to answer extensively when I get time to do your question justice, sir-probably Thursday..ok??

btw..i print out the formulator, rather than using the conventional form, and since I include lots of running lines, one race can entail 4 sheets. So sometimes I DO shuffle the pages back and forth, even when breaking down a specific race.

[dryrunguy]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Hi...doing the line is SUCH a thankless job at mnr. The win pool just can't handle some of the forces that bet into it, thus one or two big bettors can completely dictate the odds. Also, since I do the show at night and we scratch the next morning, my day job as ast racing sec, to be honest, sometimes requires me to rush through the process (and often without beyers), which is never smart.

Pertaining to Monday's races, I did make some positive comments about Key to the Nile, but could KICK myself for not taking them further.

And concerning invaders and feeder tracks, I promise to answer extensively when I get time to do your question justice, sir-probably Thursday..ok??

btw..i print out the formulator, rather than using the conventional form, and since I include lots of running lines, one race can entail 4 sheets. So sometimes I DO shuffle the pages back and forth, even when breaking down a specific race.

No rush about the invaders. I appreciate any insights you have time to provide.

I meant what I said about your M/L, and I'm sure it's a thankless job. But when I am looking at races at Mountaineer and start handicapping, my confidence in the Mountaineer M/L is such that I start handicapping each race with the M/L favorite. That horse becomes my "par," so to speak, and then I complete the ticket from there, adding horses to each race (unless I'm singling) that I think have a viable shot at beating the favorite. The only other tracks where I take that approach are Santa Anita and Charles Town.

SIDEBAR: I actually keep handwritten notes of the sequences I handicap. According to my notes, I've handicapped 77 races at Mountaineer. I recall disagreeing with the M/L a grand total of TWICE. I don't remember the specifics of the first instance (but I remember I was right to pick against the favorite but that the favorite finished second and was closing fast at the wire, so you weren't wrong, either, and I was sweating bullets at the end). The second was this past Sunday evening, Race 3. The M/L had the , Princess Magdalena, as the favorite at 7/5, but I had a super strong opinion about the , Eye Have Candy at 2/1. Basically no difference in odds. But I HAD to single that race because I was doing an ALL/single/ALL/single Pick 4, so I singled the . The good news, as you know, is the won. The bad news is the filthy little got absolutely HAMMERED and went off at 1/5. LOL!

So, keep up the great work. And thanks for what you do.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by dryrunguy

I was going to pose this question to mountaineerman in a PM, but I figured other folks might be interested in the answer, so I went this route.

I've been playing Pick 4s A LOT at Mountaineer lately, but one thing consistently throws me for a loop. And that is...

Horses coming in from other tracks and no previous races at Mountaineer. I see a decent number of horses on every card with no track record at Mountaineer and are coming in from Thistledown, Mahoning, Indiana Grand, Monmouth, etc. These horses almost invariably are in rather poor form. Last week, there was a horse on the card that had done virtually all of its previous running at Golden Gate on turf or synthetic--but was set to run on dirt at Mountaineer. I had no idea what to do with that one.

Is there any fairly consistent rhyme or reason to previous dirt performances at other tracks (let's stick with fast dirt tracks for simplicity) and how that dirt form translates at Mountaineer? E.g., horses coming in from Thistledown generally do or do not tend to like fast Mountaineer dirt? Horses coming in from Mahoning or Belterra generally do or do not tend to like fast Mountaineer dirt?

I realize each horse is unique. For example, last weekend I learned that my filly loved the fast dirt at Churchill but didn't much care for the fast dirt at Keeneland. She's not alone, either.

I'm just wondering about general correlations, if any, or if it's just a total crap shoot that mysteriously varies from one horse to another. Any insights would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

The traditional , if a tad outdated, prototype of a ship-in successful at Mnr has a form cut showing some speed, no recent drops of suspicious nature, and comes here from a track with bigger purses to exploit restrictive race conditions.

Counter-intuitively, prominent placings earned recently often should be interpreted as a red-flag, since that begs the obvious question: what is this horse doing here?

Before even assessing an individual form, I start by sub-classifying the new horse as : A-sold to a local outfit; B-part of a barn that has shipped here lock, stock, and barrel, or C-brought here by an out-of-town trainer to target a specific spot. And although a Clouston or Barker might excel with private buys new to Mnr, the third type, in general, make the best bets.

This makes it imperative to know an invading trainer's history. Lots of them run here just sporadically, leaving plenty of time between assaults for players to forget how they fare here. I used to keep an excel spreadsheet recording the performances (and specifics: trainer, race-type, finish position, odds..etc) of all new horses. These days, I simply consult formulator. Please note what this implies: That a trainer's record here should carry much more weight than their win % or ROI posted elsewhere.

Type of race is another key factor. As a reliable guideline, the lower the class level and or more restrictive the condition, the better invading horses perform here. MSW and non-life ALW races are complete exceptions, since local ranks are weak in these categories, and invading horses from bigger tracks can outclass them without their connections risking claim.

When it does come to sizing up individual forms, I suggest vetting them with a focus on form-cycles and soundness before scoring them on performance, since a new shooter's best ability is ALWAYS secondary to what it brings to the table HERE.

Apologies for the belated response. I will address specific feeder tracks as soon as I get time.

[OverlayHunter]

Thank you for the insights, mountainman, very helpful.

[dryrunguy]

Originally Posted by OverlayHunter

Thank you for the insights, mountainman, very helpful.

Absolutely. That was good stuff. Greatly appreciate the insights.

BTW, mountainman, I'm several days late myself, but I agree with you 100% about Sean Connery and The Hunt for Red October.

[judd]

was a decent track when it was waterford

[dryrunguy]

For the first time in a while, I actually made some money at Mountaineer tonight. The funny thing is that I accidentally forgot to change my increment from $1 to $0.50. That error substantially helped my payout.

R5: (4/1)
R6: (3/5, I liked the 4 in this race, but he scratched; fortunately, I had time to change my ticket)
R7: (5/1)
R8: (E)
R9: (8/5, favorite scratched, short field)

$40 wager paid out $420 and change. I'll take it. That was a dramatic improvement over last night where I won the late Pick 4 and the Pick 5--but still lost money, even though I didn't spend much.