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11-03-2020, 08:19 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,058
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Nate Silver knows it but can't come right out and say it, now cautioning his lemmings that while Trump has only a 10% chance of winning, 10% probability events happen quite often 
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...can-still-win/
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11-03-2020, 08:32 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,605
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I don't think early returns mean much.
There is obviously a much different attitude about Covid between the left and right. People on the left are more likely to vote by mail early than to go to a polling place today out of fear of catching Covid.
In fact, I'd go as far as saying using Covid politically to hurt Trump (which I'm sure it did) will also probably suppress more votes on the left today because some people that didn't mail in their vote are afraid to go out today to a crowded polling place.
The other thing I feel comfortable saying is that the left's strategy of demonizing and physically attacking MAGA people has a tendency to make people lie about who they are voting for. If the polls don't account for "silent" Trump voters, they are going to be off by a few percent.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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11-03-2020, 08:54 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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Just numbers - I posted these to another thread a while back.
Biden - 318
Senate 52/48 blue (counting any I's as blue)
Popular vote - Biden by 6 million.
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11-03-2020, 09:42 AM
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#19
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,768
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
Anything on the scale of what we saw yesterday?
GOP lawyers in court trying to get 120 thousand LEGITIMATE ballots tossed out?
Of course they lost but were successful in getting 9 drive-up polls closed today because more fear of their rat****ing.
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The ballots should be tossed. The people in 9 out of 10 spots voted in a tent with very few controls.
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WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
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11-03-2020, 12:01 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Behind the Pine Curtain
Posts: 10,643
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph
The ballots should be tossed. The people in 9 out of 10 spots voted in a tent with very few controls.
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Definitely
__________________
“We’re in a situation where we have put together, and you guys did it for our administration…President Obama’s administration before this. We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics,” -Joe Biden
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11-03-2020, 12:05 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Behind the Pine Curtain
Posts: 10,643
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Biden falls short with 254 EV, if he can can steal PA then it puts him over the top (274 ev)
__________________
“We’re in a situation where we have put together, and you guys did it for our administration…President Obama’s administration before this. We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics,” -Joe Biden
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11-03-2020, 12:26 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Houston , Tx.
Posts: 9,586
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
Final edition... put'em up.
Basically I see Biden clocking in around 350... but I'll have him run the table. By confidence (most to least):
NC - Its been blue the whole time with Cooper and Cunningham pulling it along.
GA - Trended blue hard the past couple of weeks.
TX - These early turnout numbers look good for Democrats. You shouldn't make picks on early vote data but I'm doing it just for the sheer volume of early vote.
IA - Selzer is the gold standard but I don't trust polls that have Democrats gaining similar margins in 3 out of 4 Districts then inexplicably losing 12 in one already held by one. State was trending blue and I'm going to roll with that trend continuing.
FL - Florida is going to Florida... <shrugs>. Polls weight by education more. Biden has led throughout. His lead is larger than Clinton's and a 2016 Pro Trump error would still award the state to Biden. Watch Sumter returns.
OH - State has been shifting blue in the closing months. Its a reach but its also crazy that TX is more likely to go blue than Ohio... least confident here. State DOES actually have competent GOP leadership.
Realistically Biden probably finishes with ~350 but if turnout is any indication it could go sideways quick... I'll go with that angle.
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Why not just post a blue map of the country. Almost makes as much sense.
Love the way you lefties transform hope into ignorance.
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11-03-2020, 01:00 PM
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#23
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Grinding at a Poker Table
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,902
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
Final edition... put'em up.
Basically I see Biden clocking in around 350... but I'll have him run the table. By confidence (most to least):
NC - Its been blue the whole time with Cooper and Cunningham pulling it along.
GA - Trended blue hard the past couple of weeks.
TX - These early turnout numbers look good for Democrats. You shouldn't make picks on early vote data but I'm doing it just for the sheer volume of early vote.
IA - Selzer is the gold standard but I don't trust polls that have Democrats gaining similar margins in 3 out of 4 Districts then inexplicably losing 12 in one already held by one. State was trending blue and I'm going to roll with that trend continuing.
FL - Florida is going to Florida... <shrugs>. Polls weight by education more. Biden has led throughout. His lead is larger than Clinton's and a 2016 Pro Trump error would still award the state to Biden. Watch Sumter returns.
OH - State has been shifting blue in the closing months. Its a reach but its also crazy that TX is more likely to go blue than Ohio... least confident here. State DOES actually have competent GOP leadership.
Realistically Biden probably finishes with ~350 but if turnout is any indication it could go sideways quick... I'll go with that angle. |
You are predicting TX, OH, FL, AZ, and some others as blue? I guess they have a limited amount of red crayons in that protective bubble you live in.
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11-03-2020, 02:50 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,629
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Collector
You are predicting TX, OH, FL, AZ, and some others as blue? I guess they have a limited amount of red crayons in that protective bubble you live in.
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as long as you 'hope and dream', you might as well do it BIG
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11-03-2020, 03:15 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,058
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Play-along talking points for the Biden supporters here:
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11-03-2020, 04:06 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2020
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 1,086
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President Trump wins rather easily, despite attempts by the Democrat controlled states to make "sure' of a Biden victory.
The often discussed states on here that Trump wins:
Texas
Georgia
Florida
Ohio
Arizona
Michigan
North Carolina
Colorado
Biden wins these often discussed states:
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
The rest of them probably will fall as they usually have.
Trump will prove he didn't NEED Pennsylvania to win as all the pundints and experts told us. These people are fools.
Trump could win Minnesota because of the AOC+3 congresswoman and the state attorney general. Trump also helped Minnesota bring in renewed heavy mining and factory businesses in northern Minnesota since becoming President.
Trump might also win Wisconsin because of the heavy Roman Catholic population. Catholics don't care much for abortionists and pedophiles, and the Biden-led Democrats do fill those boxes in the minds of many Catholic voters. If Trump wins Wisconsin and the rest fall in place, a landslide could be in the making. Possible but truthfully, very unlikely.
Slight chance Trump even takes all of Maine. He also helped the fishing and lobster industries up there. It would be very ironic if Trump wins Maine and Susan Collins loses her seat. I know this is quite unlikely because few people split their vote anymore, but Susan Collins was a loser before the ACB hearings and confirmation. Her no vote for ACB won't help her as she was being vilified for her support of Matt Kavanaugh. No real loss for the GOP as she was a dummy anyway.
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11-03-2020, 04:32 PM
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#27
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by myohmyjustify
Slight chance Trump even takes all of Maine. He also helped the fishing and lobster industries up there. It would be very ironic if Trump wins Maine and Susan Collins loses her seat. I know this is quite unlikely because few people split their vote anymore, but Susan Collins was a loser before the ACB hearings and confirmation. Her no vote for ACB won't help her as she was being vilified for her support of Matt Kavanaugh. No real loss for the GOP as she was a dummy anyway.
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You do realize it was China's retaliatory tariffs that hurt Maine's lobster industry, as well as lower yields (down from the last year of the Obama admin)? I'm making no judgement on the tariffs in this post, just correcting your implication.
BRETT Kavanaugh.
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11-03-2020, 04:34 PM
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#28
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,534
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The people on PA off-topic are SO IGNORANT, aren't they?
Typical of a Trump voter, wouldn't you agree?
Think of all the stuff they are MISSING!
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11-03-2020, 04:49 PM
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#29
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
The people on PA off-topic are SO IGNORANT, aren't they?
Typical of a Trump voter, wouldn't you agree?
Think of all the stuff they are MISSING!
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People shouldn't trust anything a Dem or Rep claims. Fact check everything.
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11-03-2020, 04:51 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Location: New Hampshire
Posts: 14,470
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Where is hunter?
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