Class

[Tom]

If class is a function of form, then why bother with it?
Bet the form horses with pace or speed advantages.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Tom

If class is a function of form, then why bother with it?
Bet the form horses with pace or speed advantages.

I calculate class and form very differently. I use elements of both toward my contenders list.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

If class is a function of form, then why bother with it?
Bet the form horses with pace or speed advantages.

From my perspective speed/space figures and all the formulas that combine them inevitably contain some subjective and technical errors, sometimes large. Also, the figures horses run are partly related to the quality of the competition, how competitively the race was run, whether the horse had more in the tank after the finish etc…

Higher quality fields are often run more competitively and some lightly raced horse win impressively with plenty of stamina in reserve. If asked for a little more, they can run a bit faster.

So imo (based on my own testing of the data) looking at the quality of a field in non figure terms, watching races, and seeing how the horses ran relative to each other given their trips gives you another view of the same thing that increases accuracy a bit when you combine them.

(I think both methods have strengths and weaknesses. For example, it’s very tough to “class” MSW and early ALW races because the horses are often so lightly raced and haven’t sorted themselves out at all yet. But figures will scream at you when a field was especially weak or strong.)

[shoelessjoe]

I like betting on condition races so was not sure if there were any newer books out there on the subject.

The best on that IMO was Davidowitz chapter in Betting Thoroughbreds Edge in Class

[Tom]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

From my perspective speed/space figures and all the formulas that combine them inevitably contain some subjective and technical errors, sometimes large. Also, the figures horses run are partly related to the quality of the competition, how competitively the race was run, whether the horse had more in the tank after the finish etc…

Higher quality fields are often run more competitively and some lightly raced horse win impressively with plenty of stamina in reserve. If asked for a little more, they can run a bit faster.

So imo (based on my own testing of the data) looking at the quality of a field in non figure terms, watching races, and seeing how the horses ran relative to each other given their trips gives you another view of the same thing that increases accuracy a bit when you combine them.

(I think both methods have strengths and weaknesses. For example, it’s very tough to “class” MSW and early ALW races because the horses are often so lightly raced and haven’t sorted themselves out at all yet. But figures will scream at you when a field was especially weak or strong.)

i agree partially, but competitive races are few and far between. Take Aqueduct (Please! )

Many days we see the most important factor is the track, SOR races, Sh!t on the Rail, merry-go-round races, huge win margins......Even yesterday, what if LIG broke poorly and KG sprung out like a bullet and won for fun?

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Tom

i agree partially, but competitive races are few and far between. Take Aqueduct (Please! )

Many days we see the most important factor is the track, SOR races, Sh!t on the Rail, merry-go-round races, huge win margins......Even yesterday, what if LIG broke poorly and KG sprung out like a bullet and won for fun?

Still not like the Inner Dirt!

Let's see, let me choose my P4. Is there any horse outside the 1 hole that has any chance at all? Hmm. Nope.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

i agree partially, but competitive races are few and far between. Take Aqueduct (Please! )

Many days we see the most important factor is the track, SOR races, Sh!t on the Rail, merry-go-round races, huge win margins......Even yesterday, what if LIG broke poorly and KG sprung out like a bullet and won for fun?

I think you have to try to adjust your game to whatever the conditions dictate.

I almost never even look at AQU these days.

I used to enjoy playing on biased days on the old Inner Dirt track years ago. Now there are too many small fields, fields where the horses are bad, and even when I come up with something that's actually interesting everyone else saw the same thing because there are so many sharp people out there and it's all over social media.

I prefer looking around the country at some of the higher quality races I can find on that day.

[Tom]

I prefer beaten claimers myself. Love Paex M-T-W. Not much interest in most stakes.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Still not like the Inner Dirt!

Let's see, let me choose my P4. Is there any horse outside the 1 hole that has any chance at all? Hmm. Nope.

I've seen more competitive merry-go-round rides than some Big A races. I sometimes nod off during the 9 furlong races....it's like watching slo-mo video.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

I prefer beaten claimers myself. Love Paex M-T-W. Not much interest in most stakes.

There are some cheap races I like, but not when it's a 5-6 horse field with 4/5 deserving favorite or when all the horses' form is so dreadful it's hard to know how well they'll run in a field of other dreadful horses where someone will be on the lead or stalking by default.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

There are some cheap races I like, but not when it's a 5-6 horse field with 4/5 deserving favorite or when all the horses' form is so dreadful it's hard to know how well they'll run in a field of other dreadful horses where someone will be on the lead or stalking by default.

That sounds like a lot of stakes races to me!

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Tom

I've seen more competitive merry-go-round rides than some Big A races.

Tom, this is FUNNY stuff...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

That sounds like a lot of stakes races to me!

Point taken.

[pogo1943]

I know everyone has a plan.If I can help then I like to help,tracks make enough off of us.

(1) I take last 6 races , write down the 3 highest speed ratings.
(2) Horse's finish For 1st 20 points, 2nd 16 points 3rd 13 points
(3) Add speed ratings and finish point (0 if they have no 1st,2nd,or 3rd) just use their speed score.
(4) Add score and when you get total subtract the lengths back of their finish of the 3 races
(5) Place in order those are the class.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by pogo1943

I know everyone has a plan.If I can help then I like to help,tracks make enough off of us.

(1) I take last 6 races , write down the 3 highest speed ratings.
(2) Horse's finish For 1st 20 points, 2nd 16 points 3rd 13 points
(3) Add speed ratings and finish point (0 if they have no 1st,2nd,or 3rd) just use their speed score.
(4) Add score and when you get total subtract the lengths back of their finish of the 3 races
(5) Place in order those are the class.

That seems to me to be more of an ability rating, but it is very interesting nonetheless. Thanks for sharing.