The Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) $1,500,000 Saturday June 10

[Partsnut]

My picks are based on the metrics and information. provided to me by EquineEdge artificial intelligence. This is solely my interpretation of how I think the race will play out.


Please view the attached file

[Michael]

Honestly landed on Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire as my only 2 candidates that I would put a win bet on.

That said, the more I think about the race... why take 7/2 or 3/1 on Angel of Empire when you can get double the price on Hit Show?

I would want 7/2 on Tapit Trice and I doubt I'll get anywhere near that price.

THe play for me is honestly to send in a minor action bet on Hit Show
and then... inflate my wager in the Jaiper.

Still looking at the race.... nobody's mentioned Ice Chocolat yet. Certainly not a win contender for me.. but the odds on this one might justify the mental gymnastics it will take for me to shoe horn him into a wager or two.

[Tom]

Tapit Trice

[Thomas Roulston]

Angel of Empire has a Dosage Index of 9.00 - which means that he wouldn't go a mile and a half if you put him on board a space shuttle!

Arcangelo's Dosage Index is not much better at 8.60.

And then there are Il Miracolo and Red Route One, whose Dosage Profiles (1-4-7-0-0) and Dosage Indexes (2.43) are identical. Il Miracolo also has a career best Beyer of 77 - which is even more unhealthy than the air that the East Coast has been choking on recently.

That leaves five horses who qualify on both Dosage and stamina-wing representation - but Tapit Shoes' career best Beyer of 91 is a full 10 points below the long-term par of 101 for the Belmont.

So now we're down to four - and while Tapit Trice has an Intermediate-shaped Dosage Profile (5-15-11-1-0, due to the presence of paternal grandsire Intermediate-Classic chef-de-race Pulpit, himself a son of another Intermediate-Classic chef, A.P. Indy, with two of his four great-grandsires being Brilliant-Intermediate chef-de-race Unbridled and the Intermediate Unbridled's Song), compared with the Classic-shaped DPs of National Treasure (4-4-7-1-0), Forte (4-4-5-1-0) and, most of all, Hit Show (2-5-6-1-0), he's still a dual qualifier.

Furthermore, Tapit Trice's TimeformUS's Pace "plus-minus" figure is a stout minus 23 (Forte's is minus 6, Hit Show's is minus 1, and National Treasure's is plus 3).

And with Tapit Trice having a best Beyer of 99, exceeded only by that of Forte among the five dual qualifiers, look for Tapit Trice to tag Forte at the wire, with Hit Show winning a photo over National Treasure to complete the trifecta.

[burnsy]

Forte, Hit Show , Angel on Empire

[Parkview_Pirate]

Pretty much agree with the race analysis by Thomas Roulston, which is most likely not good news for either of us.

Cold Super:

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Pretty much agree with the race analysis by Thomas Roulston, which is most likely not good news for either of us.

Cold Super:

You went from having a hard time finding a horse to hit the board to giving us the super cold. I have said for over 30 years you are the greatest handicapper I have ever met!

[sovereign]

Put a bandana and flannel shirt on Mike Smith.

[sovereign]

Originally Posted by Tom

Tapit Trice

How do I put a like?

[Michael]

Tapit Shoes $35.25
Tapit Trice $3.90
Arcangelo $7.52
National Treasure $8.92
Il Miracolo $99.53
Forte $2.13
Hit Show $8.18
Angel of Empire $2.26
Red Route One $27.31


Napkin Math pulled off the double.

[PhantomOnTour]

Kinda been on Hit Show all along so I'll stick with him. Hoping he finally gets a good trip just behind the speed and makes his move. Must improve but the price is right.

Big Ex: 2-8 w 7
Small Ex: 7 w all except the 5
Win: 7

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

After reviewing the PP’s, I’m leaning at the moment toward keying the 3 and 6 with the 8,2,4 for vertical play.

My final betting choices and type of bets will be based on the live tote analysis and how odds values shape up.

GL

ALL OF THAT ONE!

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Gonna completely fade Forte. Yes, he is 6 for 7 lifetime with 3 G1 wins, with a great Belmont trainer, and the leading NYRA jockey in the irons.

His 3YO season hasn't quite gone to plan after the Florida Derby, and 2+ months away with 12F to roll? I actually think Angel of Empire will contend for favoritism when the gates open.

Taking Arcangelo to WP. His last 2 fit with anybody in here. Granted, he didn't smoke the Peter Pan field like he maybe should have, but it was a pedestrian pace in which he had to pass the entire field (albeit just 5 others).

Underneath I'll be using Tapit Trice who should get a much better trip than he did in the Derby, and Angel of Empire who runs an honest race every time out.

Don't mind Hit Show as he ran a very nice race in the Derby. Also will include Red Route One. He is simply a plodder, and could finish up 3rd/4th in here with what should be a much more honest pace than the Preakness.

WP

EX Box
w/ Ex

w/ w/ TRI

Arrogance sometimes gets shoved in your face.

would have been amazing.

[sovereign]

Originally Posted by Nitro

After reviewing the PP’s, I’m leaning at the moment toward keying the 3 and 6 with the 8,2,4 for vertical play.

My final betting choices and type of bets will be based on the live tote analysis and how odds values shape up.

GL

Noice.

[LI Racing Guy]

I'm absolutely sick to my stomach right now. I loved Arcangelo's Peter Pan and planned to bet him at a nice price in the Belmont. Talked this horse up to my Dad, friends, everyone. Without putting too much info about myself online, I'm a college aged guy so I can only bet so much money. Today rolled around and I saw the NYRABets promo about the Belmont Stakes bet 10 to win on a horse and if he comes 2nd or 3rd get your 10 back. I got suckered in and changed my betting strategy to instead of taking a shot at Arcangelo I bet the horse I thought most likely to finish top 3 so even if I lose I'll get my money back. So I bet Angel of Empire to win (I'm not getting my 10 back) and Arcangelo to place. I didn't trust my gut and it cost me. That's racing I guess...