Aidan O'Brien

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

How overweighed could it have been? They both went off at even money.

Your point is well taken, but I heard and read people talking about it before the race as if it was a negative and possible vulnerability in their thinking about the horses. It wasn't something I was concerned about.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

How overweighed could it have been? They both went off at even money.

His post is just more of the same moronic drivel from him. All stats should be taken in context ( is 1 for 37 bad when 34 of the runners were huge prices? of course not....it's all relative ). As I said many times, and you surely know ( as does anyone that actually pays attention ) Aidan's stats are mostly about taking shots with lesser horses or horses possibly over the top at the end of the season/year ( or early at Meydan ).

His stats in the Belmont Derby and Oaks over the past five years were interesting.....12 2 1 2 with a positive ROI with mostly big priced runners. As I said repeatedly, it was clear he finally realized we were giving real money away in these races and sent over serious runners. So, in races he was already overachieving in, he sent over high classed runners for the first time. Huge shock they dominated.

[Onesome]

Originally Posted by the little guy

His post is just more of the same moronic drivel from him. All stats should be taken in context ( is 1 for 37 bad when 34 of the runners were huge prices? of course not....it's all relative ). As I said many times, and you surely know ( as does anyone that actually pays attention ) Aidan's stats are mostly about taking shots with lesser horses or horses possibly over the top at the end of the season/year ( or early at Meydan ).

His stats in the Belmont Derby and Oaks over the past five years were interesting.....12 2 1 2 with a positive ROI with mostly big priced runners. As I said repeatedly, it was clear he finally realized we were giving real money away in these races and sent over serious runners. So, in races he was already overachieving in, he sent over high classed runners for the first time. Huge shock they dominated.

Don't discount that it's also a 3yr restricted G1 race in July and I can't think of a 3yr old only G1 race this time of year in the UK, not sure about France off the top of my head.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

All stats should be taken in context ( is 1 for 37 bad when 34 of the runners were huge prices? of course not....it's all relative ). As I said many times, and you surely know ( as does anyone that actually pays attention ) Aidan's stats are mostly about taking shots with lesser horses or horses possibly over the top at the end of the season/year ( or early at Meydan ).

.

If you think I don't look all the relevant data, I'll let you know I have access to data you wish you had.

All of what you said is true and the kind of thing that can "potentially" account for meaningless noise. But it doesn't matter how much you refine, parse, or study it. When dealing with trainer stats you are still going to be in a tricky territory between relevance and random noise. That's the nature of small samples and racing. You often needs 1000s for data to be meaningful.

[Jeff P]

One thing that caught my eye - and it was especially noticeable while they were spraying her down after her win in the Belmont Oaks - was the sheer definition and amount of muscle mass Santa Barbara was carrying on Saturday.

Imo, if you want a classic example of what a horse in condition looks like - find video of Santa Barbara getting a bath after her win in the Belmont Oaks - and cement an image of that in your mind.

There's a reason she was even money.

If I had to guess - I suspect very few of the O'Brien runners from the data sample I posted earlier in this thread were carrying anywhere close to that kind of muscle mass in their US starts.


-jp

.

[classhandicapper]

Aidan O'brien lifetime stats in the US (goes back to 1996)

All - 296/31
ROI 1.75

Turf - 231/29
ROI 2.11

Dirt - 65/2
ROI .48

Turf Graded Stakes - 218/28
ROI 2.09

With Moore Riding All - 90/11
ROI 2.02

With Moore Riding Turf - 71/11
ROI 2.55

With More Riding Turf Graded Stakes - 68/10
ROI - 2.22

There doesn't look to be much in the broad data other than the weakness on dirt. Whatever his strategy over time, he's done fine shipping into the US on turf. The ROIs on turf are all terrific but there was a $148.40 winner in there mixed in with all the losing longshots. That's too noisy.

I have the data by owner for about the last 7 years, but imo it's too noisy.

[classhandicapper]

That last post was US and Canada. 15 of those starts were in Canada and he had 2 wins.

[Onesome]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

One thing that caught my eye - and it was especially noticeable while they were spraying her down after her win in the Belmont Oaks - was the sheer definition and amount of muscle mass Santa Barbara was carrying on Saturday.

Imo, if you want a classic example of what a horse in condition looks like - find video of Santa Barbara getting a bath after her win in the Belmont Oaks - and cement an image of that in your mind.

There's a reason she was even money.

If I had to guess - I suspect very few of the O'Brien runners from the data sample I posted earlier in this thread were carrying anywhere close to that kind of muscle mass in their US starts.


-jp

.

Funny you mention that given some of the noise coming out of UK/Ire last week

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/bl...se-racing-tips

Sounds like some trainers might be learning a thing or two from Bob on what to do inbetween races.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by Onesome

Funny you mention that given some of the noise coming out of UK/Ire last week

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/bl...se-racing-tips

Sounds like some trainers might be learning a thing or two from Bob on what to do inbetween races.

Imo, two interesting phrases from the article you linked to:

• Hair Sample
• Out of Competition Testing.

Here in the US we have yet to implement either.

But I have reason to believe both may be coming to the US in the not too distant future.

Imo, the alarming part from the article you linked to has to do with allegations that the positive hair tests for steroids were swept under the rug by the regulatory body in charge of enforcement.

Imo, having the proper rules in place is a necessary first step.

But true integrity requires a regulatory body that is not afraid to enforce the rules - especially in cases where those caught breaking the rules are high profile members of the inner circle.


-jp

.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by Onesome

Order of Australia was just a winner until the BC Mile last November, hasn't done a thing since, how much do you think his bloodstock value went up with that win? surely 7 figures, maybe 8 figures?

That easily pays for the other flops and it's not like some might not be subsidized by the BC or shared among the euro team that comes over.

Think anything good would be sent to Australia but with the new rules limiting flyins in wake of all the breakdowns during the Carnival and Cup itself that might change.

Bleeder.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Bleeder.

Order of Australia shortened up in distance and class and won a Group 2 at the Curragh today. Reportedly targeting the important late season mile races (Sussex, etc.) and another crack at the BC Mile.

Interestingly, his dam has thrown 3 Grade 1 winners in North America (2 of them BC winners) with this horse, Iridessa, and the recent Belmont Oaks winner Santa Barbara.

On top of that, the broodmare's own dam was Starine, the import that won the BC FM Turf for Bobby Frankel several years ago.

Maybe Coolmore should send her next foal stateside from the get-go or just relocate the mare to Ashford in Kentucky.