Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by hcap

Comer on, you said...

"Deaths in the US have been declining steadily for weeks. I've been tracking the data for months myself on a spreadsheet as have many other stats oriented sites."

Not only NYS OR NYC. You even directed me to the "machine learning" site having graphs and info on all states.
You never said JUST NY.

In fact I agreed with you NY through proper mitigation measures had "crushed" the virus. But told you it would spread to areas not yet affected, without a national coordinated plan.

As I said, you are as "day trader not only in time scale, but narrow perception of geographical community spread.

At that time you posted a graph of TOTAL DEATHS as if that was giving us useful information on the status of the epidemic. IMO, that chart was misleading. It was kind of thing I'd expect from a politically motivated media member and not from a serious discussion.

THAT'S WHY I RESPONDED.

I pointed out that DAILY DEATHS (which I was tracking personally) were falling rapidly at the time (which they were) and that was a better indication of what was going now rather than some running total of deaths that HAS TO always be rising.

1. I've been consistent in saying that the 15%-20% infection rate seems to be some kind of inflection point at which the growth rate stops it's predicted exponential growth and instead flattens and then reverses. That's what the data experts say.

2. I've been consistent in saying that if you lock down you can flatten the curve, avoids cases and deaths in the short term, but eventually the virus makes it way to you (or back to you). Therefore totally locking down has uses for making sure we don't have capacity issues in hospitals, ICU etc.. in the short term, but will wreak economic havoc as a long term strategy.

At the time, I already knew CA, FL, TX etc were not at that 15%-20% threshold and still vulnerable. That data was available in the web site I sent you and recommended you look at.
It was just a matter of time.

But that was not the discussion that prompted my response to your misleading TOTAL DEATH CHART. And we still haven't gotten anywhere close to the peak level of daily deaths.

Stop making this political and we have nothing to discuss. The data is the data and using correctly is important. I already know what's going on and have no political skin in the game.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by tucker6

As I forecasted on Friday, Trump has been given the ability to speak about Covid from a personal perspective and to show what great progress we’ve made on treatment. No one needs to live in fear. It’s a very hopeful message that WILL resonate with Americans. I certainly understand why the press, the socialist Democrats, and several on here are ranting about anything Trump does. It won’t work. People can think for themselves and most importantly SEE for themselves that the virus isn’t a death sentence even for an overweight 74 year old.

October surprise indeed.

I will feel much safer now knowing that I will get the same helicopter ride to the hospital where a team of top physicians will be awaiting me and only me. They will definitely go against the conventional treatment and give me all sorts of experimental albeit possibly effective treatments such as Remdesivir and monoclonal antibodies. The I will relax in my private suite in the hospital or perhaps watch some races in my private office at the hospital for a few days. Maybe someone will come and drive me around for a bit one day. Then after about three days, I can return home without a mask, with no fear of infecting anyone else.
If you honestly believe its going to be like this if you or I get Covid, then I wil pray for you now, because its going to be nothing like this.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

I will feel much safer now knowing that I will get the same helicopter ride to the hospital where a team of top physicians will be awaiting me and only me. They will definitely go against the conventional treatment and give me all sorts of experimental albeit possibly effective treatments such as Remdesivir and monoclonal antibodies. The I will relax in my private suite in the hospital or perhaps watch some races in my private office at the hospital for a few days. Maybe someone will come and drive me around for a bit one day. Then after about three days, I can return home without a mask, with no fear of infecting anyone else.
If you honestly believe its going to be like this if you or I get Covid, then I wil pray for you now, because its going to be nothing like this.

Let's reduce your post to what is actually important and leave out the fluff. These are the treatments Trump got:

1. Oxygen
2. Remdesivir
3. Monoclonal antibodies (Regeneron)
4. Steroid injection

Of the four treatment regimens, anyone can get the 1, 2, and 4 options in any hospital. Those three alone will help nearly everyone recover from covid. The secret to covid is recognizing you are ill and getting treatment early.


So maybe your handwaving is just that. Handwaving.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

At that time you posted a graph of TOTAL DEATHS as if that was giving us useful information on the status of the epidemic. IMO, that chart was misleading. It was kind of thing I'd expect from a politically motivated media member and not from a serious discussion.

THAT'S WHY I RESPONDED.

I pointed out that DAILY DEATHS (which I was tracking personally) were falling rapidly at the time (which they were) and that was a better indication of what was going now rather than some running total of deaths that HAS TO always be rising.

1. I've been consistent in saying that the 15%-20% infection rate seems to be some kind of inflection point at which the growth rate stops it's predicted exponential growth and instead flattens and then reverses. That's what the data experts say.

2. I've been consistent in saying that if you lock down you can flatten the curve, avoids cases and deaths in the short term, but eventually the virus makes it way to you (or back to you). Therefore totally locking down has uses for making sure we don't have capacity issues in hospitals, ICU etc.. in the short term, but will wreak economic havoc as a long term strategy.

At the time, I already knew CA, FL, TX etc were not at that 15%-20% threshold and still vulnerable. That data was available in the web site I sent you and recommended you look at.
It was just a matter of time.

But that was not the discussion that prompted my response to your misleading TOTAL DEATH CHART. And we still haven't gotten anywhere close to the peak level of daily deaths.

Stop making this political and we have nothing to discuss. The data is the data and using correctly is important. I already know what's going on and have no political skin in the game.

You have consistently downplayed the pande4mic using suspicious models. Cut tio the chase. Where will we be at total deaths USA be by December?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by hcap

You have consistently downplayed the pande4mic using suspicious models. Cut tio the chase.

hcap = cucked

Don't even bother interacting with him on this subject. You're wasting your time.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

hcap = cucked

Don't even bother interacting with him on this subject. You're wasting your time.

PA=cuck^2.

There is nothing wrong asking for predictions according to models. Lets hear yours boss.

I will not be wasting my time 1/20/21. You will be, wasting yours, still excusing the moron and all his little morons, preaching moronic talking points.


Haven't you heard?
Hey! Trump's immune.
Whoop-di--do. Go Trump
You Trumpites will buy anything.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

I will feel much safer now knowing that I will get the same helicopter ride to the hospital where a team of top physicians will be awaiting me and only me. They will definitely go against the conventional treatment and give me all sorts of experimental albeit possibly effective treatments such as Remdesivir and monoclonal antibodies. The I will relax in my private suite in the hospital or perhaps watch some races in my private office at the hospital for a few days. Maybe someone will come and drive me around for a bit one day. Then after about three days, I can return home without a mask, with no fear of infecting anyone else.
If you honestly believe its going to be like this if you or I get Covid, then I wil pray for you now, because its going to be nothing like this.

I guess you're not too thrilled about Obamacare for the masses, heh?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

I will feel much safer now knowing that I will get the same helicopter ride to the hospital where a team of top physicians will be awaiting me and only me. They will definitely go against the conventional treatment and give me all sorts of experimental albeit possibly effective treatments such as Remdesivir and monoclonal antibodies. The I will relax in my private suite in the hospital or perhaps watch some races in my private office at the hospital for a few days. Maybe someone will come and drive me around for a bit one day. Then after about three days, I can return home without a mask, with no fear of infecting anyone else.
If you honestly believe its going to be like this if you or I get Covid, then I wil pray for you now, because its going to be nothing like this.

Welcome to the reality of life and our world.

In case you weren't aware, there are two sets of rules and wealth has its privilege.

What many call, "White privilege" is actually "wealth privilege."

Is it "fair?"
Nope.

Is it new?
Nope.

I've actually heard that in jolly old England, not everyone was given a fair shot at becoming King or Queen.

Where is the outrage?

[RunForTheRoses]

https://www.irishnews.com/news/north...usic--2081959/

Eric Clapton backs Van Morrison's call to 'save live music'
It comes after Van Morrison launched a campaign to save the music industry and is donating profits from his new collection of anti-lockdown songs to musicians impacted by measures he claims do "more harm than good".

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Welcome to the reality of life and our world.

In case you weren't aware, there are two sets of rules and wealth has its privilege.

What many call, "White privilege" is actually "wealth privilege."

Is it "fair?"
Nope.

Is it new?
Nope.

I've actually heard that in jolly old England, not everyone was given a fair shot at becoming King or Queen.

Where is the outrage?

All "wealth/ruling class" has to do is upgrade Obamacare for the masses to the level of health care they receive and all will be well. I think they call that a level playing field or some such thing.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by hcap View Post
Comer on, you said...

"Deaths in the US have been declining steadily for weeks. I've been tracking the data for months myself on a spreadsheet...

GHOUL!

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Let's reduce your post to what is actually important and leave out the fluff. These are the treatments Trump got:

1. Oxygen
2. Remdesivir
3. Monoclonal antibodies (Regeneron)
4. Steroid injection

Of the four treatment regimens, anyone can get the 1, 2, and 4 options in any hospital. Those three alone will help nearly everyone recover from covid. The secret to covid is recognizing you are ill and getting treatment early.


So maybe your handwaving is just that. Handwaving.

BS, they would not treat me unless I was on my deathbed. especially with Remdesivir, Trump was given this as almost a prophylactic measure, it would not happen that way for you or I.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Welcome to the reality of life and our world.

In case you weren't aware, there are two sets of rules and wealth has its privilege.

What many call, "White privilege" is actually "wealth privilege."

Is it "fair?"
Nope.

Is it new?
Nope.

I've actually heard that in jolly old England, not everyone was given a fair shot at becoming King or Queen.

Where is the outrage?

I agree Dave, but for Trump to tell people who are not ultra wealthy, i.e. me, not to worry about this, it rings kind of hollow. Kind of like when Marie Antoinette said "Let them eat cake"! Now we all know what happened to her.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I've actually heard that in jolly old England, not everyone was given a fair shot at becoming King or Queen.

Where is the outrage?

In this country, anyone can be a queen if he want to!

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

BS, they would not treat me unless I was on my deathbed. especially with Remdesivir, Trump was given this as almost a prophylactic measure, it would not happen that way for you or I.

Life just isn't fair, is it?