ROI by running style

[cj]

These are the styles I use with TimeformUS. Used to always be Speed types were best, but not any longer. Speed is getting bet more and more.

Starts	ROI	Style
 170664	0.79	Tracker
 267323	0.77	Midpack
 36933	0.76	Leader
 32136	0.76	Speed
 37744	0.73	1st_St
 128791	0.73	Closer
 56169	0.64	Plodder
 26493	0.57	No_Form

[cj]

Turf only, not much different:

Starts	ROI	Style
23494	0.83	Tracker
39119	0.78	Midpack
6070	0.76	Leader
19934	0.75	Closer
4663	0.72	1st_St
4937	0.72	Speed
3847	0.64	No_Form
7847	0.62	Plodder

[Maximillion]

cj,
What about sprints and routes?

[thaskalos]

This probably comes as a result of the emergence of the short field as a major factor in today's game. The fields are smaller...and that makes the "controlling speed" more readily apparent.

I know that the databases seem to indicate that the fields have only gotten SLIGHTLY smaller in recent years...but that's a misleading stat...IMO.

In the sprints -- where early speed is most dangerous -- the fields have gotten NOTICEABLY shorter...IMO.

The only sprints that have maintained their full size are the maiden races -- where the running styles of the horses are often the least discernible.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

These are the styles I use with TimeformUS. Used to always be Speed types were best, but not any longer. Speed is getting bet more and more.

Starts	ROI	Style
 170664	0.79	Tracker
 267323	0.77	Midpack
 36933	0.76	Leader
 32136	0.76	Speed
 37744	0.73	1st_St
 128791	0.73	Closer
 56169	0.64	Plodder
 26493	0.57	No_Form

What does "no form" mean?

No discernible running style...or running last from start to finish?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

cj,
What about sprints and routes?

Last one, could do this for so many combos:

Sprints
 Starts	ROI	Style
 110624	0.78	Tracker
 19337	0.77	Leader
 169634	0.77	Midpack
 19758	0.77	Speed
 79962	0.73	Closer
 33681	0.73	1st_St
 37649	0.63	Plodder
 19513	0.57	No_Form
 
 Routes
 Starts	ROI	Style
 1783	0.81	1st_St
 29569	0.81	Tracker
 50963	0.79	Midpack
 5771	0.75	Speed
 27509	0.75	Closer
 7974	0.73	Leader
 11267	0.66	Plodder
 3323	0.56	No_Form

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

What does "no form" mean?

No discernible running style...or running last from start to finish?

Not discernible, in other words not close enough to be considered Leader/Speed/Tracker and doesn't gain enough ground to be considered any of the later running types. It is basically horses that start out midpack or worse and make no real move at any point.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by cj

Last one, could do this for so many combos:

Sprints
 Starts	ROI	Style
 110624	0.78	Tracker
 19337	0.77	Leader
 169634	0.77	Midpack
 19758	0.77	Speed
 79962	0.73	Closer
 33681	0.73	1st_St
 37649	0.63	Plodder
 19513	0.57	No_Form
 
 Routes
 Starts	ROI	Style
 1783	0.81	1st_St
 29569	0.81	Tracker
 50963	0.79	Midpack
 5771	0.75	Speed
 27509	0.75	Closer
 7974	0.73	Leader
 11267	0.66	Plodder
 3323	0.56	No_Form

Thanks.
I think it was something you posted that gave me an idea to go back over my records to see if I was actually doing better with horses placed more forwardly,like say top 3 or 4 (mostly play races with 8 or more horses)

I have all the races I bet on in a spreadsheet for the past year and a half and didnt record the first call position(did record field size)...been doing that for the last month or so.So far its been pretty inconclusive but obviously not enough races.

It would be a lot of work going back over those older races using replays or charts,not sure if its worth the effort,as your data suggests.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

I have all the races I bet on in a spreadsheet for the past year and a half and didnt record the first call position(did record field size)...been doing that for the last month or so.So far its been pretty inconclusive but obviously not enough races.

Feel free to ignore my suggestion, but this is something I learned over the years. DO NOT base any studies on things that can't be known before the gate opens. Knowing your bets that lead early do one thing, and those in the back another, doesn't do you much good. It is too late by then. What you want to know is how bets do on horses you expect to lead, or be in the back, or midpack, etc.

Of course I'm talking ROI. There is nothing wrong with trying to improve handicapping...things like projecting the leader. You might find horses you predict to lead only do it 1 out of 4 times. That might be a good indication you need work in this area. But when it comes to betting, stick to studying only info you know before the gate opens, not after. Any ROI studies that tell you how horses do based on in-race factors are worthless in my opinion.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by cj

Feel free to ignore my suggestion, but this is something I learned over the years. DO NOT base any studies on things that can't be known before the gate opens. Knowing your bets that lead early do one thing, and those in the back another, doesn't do you much good. It is too late by then. What you want to know is how bets do on horses you expect to lead, or be in the back, or midpack, etc.

Of course I'm talking ROI. There is nothing wrong with trying to improve handicapping...things like projecting the leader. You might find horses you predict to lead only do it 1 out of 4 times. That might be a good indication you need work in this area. But when it comes to betting, stick to studying only info you know before the gate opens, not after. Any ROI studies that tell you how horses do based on in-race factors are worthless in my opinion.

In the races I bet,I would like to think I at least have a general idea as to where the horse might be early on,or I would probably not bet the race.
No doubt I am wrong a lot.
My opinion is that if a horse can improve his early position(over,say recent races) he can often improve his overall performance,and thats kind of where I was going with my post and record keeping idea.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

In the world of heavily rebated totes, the ROIs for all factors will be pushed towards efficiency and come out looking fairly flat

It is possible that speed is now holding a disproportionate amount of money from those armed with the biggest rebates

What you really want to know is how much of the money from the biggest rebaters is going on each running style and what ROI they are receiving for that running style as a result

So taking it from the first table if the biggest rebaters always bet speed but never bet closers then the ROI for speed goes to 86 (from 76) while closers remain at 73 (although closers would likely drop from 73 to 71 if the rebate money was not backing speed in the pools)

[fmolf]

I see a lot of handicappers around Aqueduct and Belmont i know that fail to take post position into account when trying to discern who will be on the lead.Its not always the fastest horse.Speed drawn outside may try to rate and pressers with speed to their outside may rush to the front ,protecting position on the rail.This is why horses with a good jock and tactical speed are the best horses to wager on,as they can adapt midrace to what is happening around them.Bris calls these types E/P's and there are also P/C's standing for horses that can either press the pace or close into a fast pace.

[Robert Goren]

There are lot of times that the inside frontrunner will lose the horse(s) beside him on the first turn. A rarer situation occurs when the outside horse loses the inside horse on the turn. I am not sure why this happens, just that it does. I am open to reasons why the outside horse would come out of the turn ahead.

[mountainman]

Cool stats. It's telling that they're based on predicted, rather than actual running styles. Were it the opposite, the roi's would obviously trend much more toward speed.

Still, the table does underscore how heavily bet front-types are these days. And obvious LONE speed may now be the most overbet proposition in racing. For me, it goes back to the outlandish profits on first-call leaders supposedly obtainable by focusing purely on predicted pace-setters. The problems with that approach are twofold: first, I don't have a crystal ball that sees one-quarter mile into the future, and second, the kind of early leaders most responsible for said profits aren't all that predictable.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by cj

These are the styles I use with TimeformUS. Used to always be Speed types were best, but not any longer. Speed is getting bet more and more.

Starts	ROI	Style
 170664	0.79	Tracker
 267323	0.77	Midpack
 36933	0.76	Leader
 32136	0.76	Speed
 37744	0.73	1st_St
 128791	0.73	Closer
 56169	0.64	Plodder
 26493	0.57	No_Form

Not sure if you have this info, but I assume you would. Do you have these same stats in two contexts?
1) Relative to the projected pace (speed heavy, moderate pace, little early speed)
2) Relative to the current bias(pro speed, none and pro closer and I realize this may be a little after the fact as you may not determine there is a bias till until race 5, but still I think this would be interesting info).

This info would give a good insight as to how well bettors (whales) are reacting to pace and biases. Obviously early speed types should fare better on pro speed tracks and light early speed races, while closers should be virtually dead in these situations..... but are the markets so efficient that there is no added roi in advantageous situation and lowered roi in disadvantaged situations?

By the way what is a plodder (a closer that doesn't really close that well?)