Hollywood Park's handle vs. Monmouth's handle this past Saturday

[Indulto]

Originally Posted by Turfday

This was brought to my attention. I don't follow the handle on any circuit, let alone for comparative purposes. But I surely found this interesting and wanted to share it with the board.

Hollywood Park vs. Monmouth all sources handle for this past Saturday:

All sources betting handle at Hollywood Park was $9,560,260.
There were 67 horses that ran on the 9-race card

At Monmouth, they handled $9,357,444 (but I understand there's a problem with NY OTB and betting Monmouth). There were 126 horses on the 13-race Monmouth opening day Saturday card.

Considering both situations, I didn't think the above would be possible. Your commments?

Thanks for sharing, Turfday. I suspect people bet where they are most familiar and feel most confident.

Many horses at HOL had already run during the meeting and had established their form at the course whereas none had at MTH on opening day. Same for jockeys and trainers. How many here believed Carlos H. Marquez, Jr. would have so many live mounts riding against Gomez, et al?

I'll be shocked to see that relationship continue.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by Bruddah

It would suggest by these numbers, there shouldn't be anyway that Hollywood would be losing money. Every one in this industry seems focused on Gross dollars wagered and not the tracks "net income from all revenue streams."

"Butts in the Bleachers" wagering, eating concessions, buying programs and parking will net the host track much more operating income than just spreading thier betting signal. Simple business economics.

Wake up Racing Industry Management and smell the coffee. If this weren't so, then why are smart management teams trying to get the fans to return. Besides Monmouths efforts, I'll example Churchill and their night racing. (JMHO)

For the first time since we saw Scarlet Johansson appear on our TV set, we're thinking along the same lines. Even a very intelligent man like Steve Crist couldn't think outside of that box that last weekend.

[rrbauer]

Monmouth was up 100% year over year. What were Hollywood's comparative figures (I don't know but I doubt it was an increase)?

[alhattab]

Originally Posted by rrbauer

Monmouth was up 100% year over year. What were Hollywood's comparative figures (I don't know but I doubt it was an increase)?

People are comparing Mth to perennial East and West coast handle kings Belmont and Hollywood one weekend into the "experiment"? It is way too early for that. Before the Mth meet started there was discussion that horseplayers, being creatures of habit, wouldn't just turn on a dime and start betting Mth with both hands after playing these other venues forever. I think Mth's numbers are off the charts considering it was opening weekend, with many horses showing little recent form, and with no contribution from the biggest bet taker in the nation.

Whatever my views are, I think it is only fair that we give it some more time before we start expecting Mth to be competing for handle honors with NYRA and SoCal.

[Rutgers]

Originally Posted by arno

Monmouth is dark this Friday.

It would have been a interesting day to see attendance and handle.

I doubt they would have had 5,000 at track

Thank you for pointing that out.

I would have looked awful silly in my sandals, black socks and plaid shorts standing next to the walking ring waiting for the horses to come out. And my 3 year old would have been really PO'ed.

And with my luck, I probably would have been standing next to some guy complaining about how a guy named Rutgers on some message board said there was racing today.

[Rutgers]

Originally Posted by Track Collector

Making the most money is the most important factor. Pool sizes are an important consideration, but not to the exclusion of all other factors. Making the most money is a combination of your edge (including any rebates), the total amount you bet on that edge, and the minimizing of payout reductions caused by your own wager. It is easier to identify an edge (or a bigger edge) with larger field sizes where many different opinions and confusion exist, versus smaller fields where profitability is much harder to find. A smaller field which offers the benefit of large pool sizes but a smaller edge may be shunned in favor of larger field opportunies with smaller pools but a more favorable edge. Making the most money is therefore a delicate balance of a number of factors.

I said to big bettors pool size is the most important factor. It is not the only factor, but it is by far the most important.

Saturday’s pools for the late Pick 4 was $429,259 for Hollywood and $111,208 for Monmouth Park.

So for an example let’s use a Pick 4 pool of $400,000 with a 20% takeout at Hollywood and a $100,000 pool with 15% takeout at Monmouth Park. Assume a $1,000 $1 payoff at both tracks.

In this case there would be 320 winning $1 tickets at Hollywood. ($400K * .80 = $320K. Divide $320K by $1K) At Monmouth Park there would be 85 winning $1 tickets. ($100K * .85 = $85K. Divide $85K by $1K)

Now add a big bettors who plays 100 combination for $10 each for a total of $1,000 and wins.

Now HP is $401K * .80 = $320,800. Dividing that by 330 winning tickets leaves a winning payout now of $972.00 with breakage. A drop of 2.8%.

A $1,000 wager at Hollywood returns $9,720.

MP is now $101K * .85 = $85,850. Dividing that by 95 winning tickets leaves a winning payout of $903.60 with breakage. A drop of 9.6%.

A $1,000 wager at Monmouth returns $9,036.

You can even add a 8% rebate to MP and the return of $9,116 still pales in comparison to HP. Drop MP takeout to 10%, keep the rebate and the $1,000 bet yields $9,648.30, still less then at HP. (if the big bettor played more per combination, the difference would be even greater)

So has you can see, a rebate and low takeout do not help the big bettor as much a small pool hurts them. That is why I said, pool size is the most important factor. Without a large pool, it makes no sense for a big bettor to wager. And that was the point of my first post, Monmouth Park is up against it because they have always had smaller pools then southern California and NYRA, And in order for MP to grow it pools to compare with those tracks and to truly be “elite” (and support their purse structure), they need to get more big bettors but the big bettors are bettor off playing at other tracks, or if they do play Monmouth they need to scale back their bets, either way MP will be hard press to grow their handle to where it needs to be. I am not saying they can't do it, but it will be difficult

I do not mean this as a put down of MP, I was only commenting on why HP had a larger handle then MP despite running fewer races and having smaller fields.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by rrbauer

Monmouth was up 100% year over year. What were Hollywood's comparative figures (I don't know but I doubt it was an increase)?

That's an excellent point, and one everyone seemed to miss. It's not Hollywood and Monmouth being even, it's the fact Monmouth had massive gains from 2009 (I think it was 4.1 million to 9.4 million). So, actually it's a huge change, not a "hey, why didn't Monmouth crush Hollywood?"

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by Rutgers

Thank you for pointing that out.

I would have looked awful silly in my sandals, black socks and plaid shorts standing next to the walking ring waiting for the horses to come out. And my 3 year old would have been really PO'ed.

And with my luck, I probably would have been standing next to some guy complaining about how a guy named Rutgers on some message board said there was racing today.

I was going to come over to say hello but there were several with the same outfit on.

[WinterTriangle]

Originally Posted by andymays

70% of trainers want it gone for a reason.

Curious figure. Who did you poll?

Trainer / owners are in the game to make money.

Among the 20 top purses in the world, the BC Classic at CDX is about the only race on dirt that fits in to the top 20 in $$.

Yet you think dirt-only stallions are going to be in high demand with horse buyers globally?

That was then, this is now.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

Curious figure. Who did you poll?
Trainer / owners are in the game to make money.

Among the 20 top purses in the world, the BC Classic at CDX is about the only race on dirt that fits in to the top 20 in $$.

Yet you think dirt-only stallions are going to be in high demand with horse buyers globally?

That was then, this is now.

That number has been stated in various papers several times. What the public hears via TVG and HRTV and some journalists is far from reality in some cases. This is one of those cases.

No Breeders Cup will be on it for the next two years at least. No Triple Crown race is on it. Synthetic surfaces are becoming irrelevant again as they should be.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.thehorse.com/ViewArticle.aspx?ID=15825

Sadler, who was recently elected president of the California Thoroughbred Trainers, said that the organization polled trainers and found that 70% want Santa Anita to replace its synthetic surface with a dirt track.

"We're in the trenches working with these horses every day," said Sadler. "We'd like to see some change in the surface here."

[WinterTriangle]

Originally Posted by andymays

the organization polled trainers and found that 70% want Santa Anita to replace its synthetic surface

If your % only reflected a small number of trainers, or they were only CA trainers, or they were only at SA (with it's pecular drainage problems) you should have said that.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

If your % only reflected a small number of trainers, or they were only CA trainers, or they were only at SA (with it's pecular drainage problems) you should have said that.

California Trainers.

I've posted the same stuff probably dozens of times. Every time the subject comes up the same questions are asked and answered. I am aware that you are not one of the ones asking the same things all the time so I'm not going after you personally by any means. You can be assured that the majority of Trainers everwhere in the United States feel the same way. You just don't hear it.

[Tom]

70%, now 51%.......would be nice to see actual data.
Just saying.....

[so.cal.fan]

Santa Anita tears out the synthetic surface and puts in dirt.

They won't be able to run the Oak Tree meet, even if they wanted to.
There are major problems with the Santa Anita synthetic surface getting worse.

I will be shocked if they continue to race on it. Dirt will be going in for sure, and I understand that experts from Santa Anita are looking into Ky. dirt track and also Brazil?

Breeder's Cup will be back at Santa Anita the following year and I predict there will be many more days added to Santa Anita's racing dates in the future.

The California racing industry needs another track for owners to run their cheaper stock....Los Alamitos? It's hard to imagine HP staying open much longer, but we've all been saying that for years.........

Will Del Mar be next to tear out their polytrack? I think so, especially if there are any major problems this summer.

I was disappointed to hear major Calif. breeder Marty Wygod is selling his Calif. farm and moving to Kentucky.

What a mess everything is in! SIGH

[andymays]

Originally Posted by so.cal.fan

Santa Anita tears out the synthetic surface and puts in dirt.

They won't be able to run the Oak Tree meet, even if they wanted to.
There are major problems with the Santa Anita synthetic surface getting worse.

I will be shocked if they continue to race on it. Dirt will be going in for sure, and I understand that experts from Santa Anita are looking into Ky. dirt track and also Brazil?

Breeder's Cup will be back at Santa Anita the following year and I predict there will be many more days added to Santa Anita's racing dates in the future.

The California racing industry needs another track for owners to run their cheaper stock....Los Alamitos? It's hard to imagine HP staying open much longer, but we've all been saying that for years.........

Will Del Mar be next to tear out their polytrack? I think so, especially if there are any major problems this summer.

I was disappointed to hear major Calif. breeder Marty Wygod is selling his Calif. farm and moving to Kentucky.

What a mess everything is in! SIGH

Hope you're mostly right but the Breeders Cup signed with Churchill in 2011 already. Frank made them nervous I guess.