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Old 01-23-2023, 06:41 PM   #16
Poindexter
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Excellent post.

The only thing I'd really like more of a breakdown on is specifically, accounts wagering $100m or more.

My (highly reliable) sources tell me that there are 6 such organizations, and that between them they wager 15+% of that 19%.

Recently, I met with "some" highly successful players to discuss ideas for "fixing what's broken."

Perhaps you could add your opinions to this?

What they/we came up with was a structured tier of max bet sizes per account based upon minutes to post.

Example (Win Pool Bets):
5 minutes - unlimited wager size
4 minutes - $2,000
3 minutes - $1,000
2 minutes - $500
1 minute - $300
0 minutes - $250
Obviously, these maximums would need to be adjusted for each pool, based upon average pool size. (Which also takes into consideration the problem of BEL vs. WRD having different size pools.)

These numbers need tweaking, but consider what this does.

1) It causes tracks to run closer to designated post times (which could be determined when the tote for the race opens up).

2) It does not curtail the AMOUNT of money wagered by "whales." It only curtails WHEN they can bet it.

3) Tracking account ownership across multiple ADWs would be a challenge to overcome, but considering taxation requirements that information is clearly available.

4) Wagering stops when the 1st horse enters the gate.
Exceptions can be made if a horse scratches and everyone has to get re-loaded. (Think "Overtime" betting.)
Would this make for a better product then we have now. Yes. Would it change the net roi of non rebated bettors in aggregate. No. If so a tiny fraction of what they are currently losing. So without reiterating my viewpoint on the subject for the 900th time, I will say this. What NYRA has done in keeping much of the ADW money out of the win pools only is probably a best guide as to what kind of effect this idea would have. So if a bunch of people want to jump in here and say that since NYRA stopped CAW betting at 3 minutes to post, they have done noticeably better making win bets on the NYRA circuit , I have to remain very skeptical. I haven't seen one person here post that they are doing better or the game is so much better in the win pools since NYRA made that change which is much more beneficial to the layman than your proposed change.

So it ultimately goes back to whether racing wants to be a player in the advantage gambling arena or they want to be like the keno room to everyone except those who are getting rebates. Once in a while I see 4 or 5 people in the Keno room.

CJ, I believe Ocrunk's post in a similar thread a couple of months back gives you the numbers you need. If I recall correctly non teams over 10 years at NYRA were losing 20% in the wps pools and in every other major pools it was around 27 to 28%. If racing thinks they can compete with other advantage gambling games that work on a roughly 5% takeout, with those kind of numbers, I want some of the stuff they are smoking.

From a personal standpoint, I don't think I will be winning the World Series of Poker anytime soon and I don't think I am in any danger of getting banned out of my sports betting account, but I can hold my own day and night. That is the point I am trying to make, but it is very much to deaf ears in the racing industry. I love handicapping and betting racing, but they just don't provide most a fair shake and a reasonable chance of winning long term. I can hold my own on pick 5's at woodbine mohawk, but is it worth the handicapping time to do it? Down the road I may get back into it. But for now, now and again when I have the time I will handicap a card and hit the local race book, but nothing like what I would be doing if they priced the game properly. I am fine either way. I have plenty of gambling activities I can participate in. The racing industry has chosen to keep me out of theirs for the most part.
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Old 01-23-2023, 08:23 PM   #17
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Would this make for a better product then we have now. Yes. Would it change the net roi of non rebated bettors in aggregate. No. If so a tiny fraction of what they are currently losing. So without reiterating my viewpoint on the subject for the 900th time, I will say this. What NYRA has done in keeping much of the ADW money out of the win pools only is probably a best guide as to what kind of effect this idea would have. So if a bunch of people want to jump in here and say that since NYRA stopped CAW betting at 3 minutes to post, they have done noticeably better making win bets on the NYRA circuit , I have to remain very skeptical. I haven't seen one person here post that they are doing better or the game is so much better in the win pools since NYRA made that change which is much more beneficial to the layman than your proposed change.
I agree with you.

Of course, NYRA has not really kept their money out of the win pool.

What they've done is caused them to bet earlier.

Which is what I would like to see across the entire country.
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Old 01-23-2023, 08:50 PM   #18
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I agree with you.

Of course, NYRA has not really kept their money out of the win pool.

What they've done is caused them to bet earlier.

Which is what I would like to see across the entire country.
Dave, we never told them they couldn't bet, we said they couldn't bet in the win pool with less than two minutes to post. They said, because of that, they wouldn't bet, and while there may be a few CAW dollars in the win pool, it's inconsequential at best, and the payoffs back that up.

Believe whatever makes you happy, but that's the truth.
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Old 01-24-2023, 02:29 PM   #19
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Of course, NYRA has not really kept their money out of the win pool.

What they've done is caused them to bet earlier.
Take a close look at the first-half odds in the rolling Daily Double pools against the actual odds in the Win pools of the corresponding races. [This is done by reverse engineering the odds calculations based on the published Double probable payouts, the associated takeout and total pool size.] I have been modeling this for several weeks and you would be very surprised at the pricing differences. One of the more extreme examples from this last weekend took place in Aqueduct's opening race on Saturday where the winning horse was 2-1 in the Double pool, but paid 4-1 in the win pool.

The other data point is the rate of money flows into the pools [first derivative]. You will see that CAW money is not entering the Win pool early however the flow rates into the Double and Exacta pools does increase [second derivative] with less than 90 seconds until post time.
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Old 01-24-2023, 02:54 PM   #20
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Dave, we never told them they couldn't bet, we said they couldn't bet in the win pool with less than two minutes to post. They said, because of that, they wouldn't bet, and while there may be a few CAW dollars in the win pool, it's inconsequential at best, and the payoffs back that up.

Believe whatever makes you happy, but that's the truth.
Respectfully, I am onboard with hearing the truth.
That comment was unnecessary.

But I completely agree.
And it was precisely my point.

I was not saying that it didn't keep them out of the pool.

I was saying that IF THIS BECAME THE STANDARD, they would adjust their models to work with a 3-minute model as an alternative to not playing.

This would allow the general public a fair shot at betting into THEIR odds instead of the other way around.

ScottJ, you were, of course, as right as Andy was.
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Old 01-24-2023, 06:17 PM   #21
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Take a close look at the first-half odds in the rolling Daily Double pools against the actual odds in the Win pools of the corresponding races. [This is done by reverse engineering the odds calculations based on the published Double probable payouts, the associated takeout and total pool size.] I have been modeling this for several weeks and you would be very surprised at the pricing differences. One of the more extreme examples from this last weekend took place in Aqueduct's opening race on Saturday where the winning horse was 2-1 in the Double pool, but paid 4-1 in the win pool.

The other data point is the rate of money flows into the pools [first derivative]. You will see that CAW money is not entering the Win pool early however the flow rates into the Double and Exacta pools does increase [second derivative] with less than 90 seconds until post time.
As a somewhat regular follower of the DD matrix for NYRA races I'm curious, are you talking about the first race or the second? by chance they were both 4-1 winners... my first thought was that's extremely rare for a NYRA race to be off by more than + or - one notch in odds, that's the typical range there. 2-1 vs 4-1 would be about four notches, that's a whole lot.... so much so that I wanted to look.

I came up with these odds for race 2 using the final DD probables matrix from race 1:
1- 6-5
2- 7-2
3- 17-1
4- 7-2
5- 3-1
6- 21-1

Ultimately the final win odds for race 2 were:
1- 7-5
2- 4-1
3- 32-1
4- 3-1
5- 2-1
6- 25-1

So of the horses that took money in race 2 the 5 horse Giramonte which ran out of the money was two notches away from the projected final odds. Someone probably just ran into some money and took it to the track, started firing away on the early races. It does happen sometimes. I doubt it was a whale. A whale would want to jump on everything else to even it out and take this sucker's money repeatedly rather than slam one horse IMO. I don't look at whales as smart money, tbh, they may reliably detect it better than most everyone else and then pile on but they aren't truly 'it'... the end result however is they might as well be it. Race one itself I consider to be a special case anyway because there's no prior race matrix that's finalized to make projected odds from.
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Old 01-24-2023, 09:13 PM   #22
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As a somewhat regular follower of the DD matrix for NYRA races I'm curious, are you talking about the first race or the second? by chance they were both 4-1 winners... my first thought was that's extremely rare for a NYRA race to be off by more than + or - one notch in odds, that's the typical range there. 2-1 vs 4-1 would be about four notches, that's a whole lot.... so much so that I wanted to look.

I came up with these odds for race 2 using the final DD probables matrix from race 1:
1- 6-5
2- 7-2
3- 17-1
4- 7-2
5- 3-1
6- 21-1

Ultimately the final win odds for race 2 were:
1- 7-5
2- 4-1
3- 32-1
4- 3-1
5- 2-1
6- 25-1

So of the horses that took money in race 2 the 5 horse Giramonte which ran out of the money was two notches away from the projected final odds. Someone probably just ran into some money and took it to the track, started firing away on the early races. It does happen sometimes. I doubt it was a whale. A whale would want to jump on everything else to even it out and take this sucker's money repeatedly rather than slam one horse IMO. I don't look at whales as smart money, tbh, they may reliably detect it better than most everyone else and then pile on but they aren't truly 'it'... the end result however is they might as well be it. Race one itself I consider to be a special case anyway because there's no prior race matrix that's finalized to make projected odds from.
My analysis is not based on Race 2's Daily Double potential payoffs compared to the Win pool. Instead, my analysis compares the rolling Double to be run (Race 1 into Race 2) compared to the Win pool for Race 1 all before post time for Race 1.

More technical detail follows as to how is this achieved. Take the total money in the Race 1 Double Pool at any point during the wagering and remove the takeout (16%). Now, take the odds from the NYRA Bets betting panel at that same snap point and determine the cash amount bet on each combination (using total/odds). Once this series of calculations is completed for each combination, add the totals for each lead horse - in other words, determine the amount bet on 1-all, 2-all, .... If you take that total and divide it into the Double Pool total (less takeout as above), you can get the actual odds of each horse in the Double Pool which can then be compared to the Win Pool.

Using this methodology, you will see that the actual Win odds on Chief Engineering in Saturday's opener was 4-1 while the Double odds were 2-1.

Now, this programming model is still evolving and has issues. First, I do not have an electronic (digital) feed available other than the HTML inside the NYRA Bets page. As a result, cut-and-paste (quickly) into my Calc Engine is critical - and can be error prone. Second, using the odds table provides only integer odds (without the decimal elements) which can impact the calculations, particularly in short-odds situations.

Long story short, I am merely trying to look at the full Double possible payouts to quantify where the CAW might be getting deployed in the final 3 minutes of wagering.

I hope that this was sufficiently clear.
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Old 01-24-2023, 09:26 PM   #23
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One final question that some might ask is "why would you want to do this work?" I am trying to quickly identify where the late CAW money might be getting played in the Double (or Exacta) pools which might have previously gone into the Win pool. Since that money can not be played in the final three minutes in the Win pool, the information provides me with a chance to use the CAW betting patterns to identify a potential wagering opportunity in the current race's Win pool.

In MJC922's example, we are looking at payoffs after the race of interest is run.

The Double probable payoffs heading into Race 2 are being used as a estimate for what the Race 2 Win payoffs might be. If these turn out to be "low" (underlays) across the board, this would imply that the winning Race 1 horse was played more heavily than you might expect ... but that race was already run so you cannot capitalize on the information.

The only way to capture that information is in the three minutes after the CAWs are locked out of the Win pool prior to that race's post time.

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Old 01-24-2023, 09:46 PM   #24
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One final question that some might ask is "why would you want to do this work?" I am trying to quickly identify where the late CAW money might be getting played in the Double (or Exacta) pools which might have previously gone into the Win pool. Since that money can not be played in the final three minutes in the Win pool, the information provides me with a chance to use the CAW betting patterns to identify a potential wagering opportunity in the current race's Win pool.

In MJC922's example, we are looking at payoffs after the race of interest is run.

The Double probable payoffs heading into Race 2 are being used as a estimate for what the Race 2 Win payoffs might be. If these turn out to be "low" (underlays) across the board, this would imply that the winning Race 1 horse was played more heavily than you might expect ... but that race was already run so you cannot capitalize on the information.

The only way to capture that information is in the three minutes after the CAWs are locked out of the Win pool prior to that race's post time.

With all due respect you've misunderstood entirely, whomever wins the first leg didn't impact those projected odds for race two whatsoever. I think you're thinking of will pays. I'm not using will pays, I'm using the full matrix like you are. Only you're not using the final matrix you're using an early matrix before all the money for race one is in to interpret the odds for the current race (race one), so with respect to projecting the next race that's even less useful. Think in terms of inverting that matrix. My intent is to know what the likely final odds will be for the next race (race two) so when I handicap it I know what odds I can most likely expect. For race two you'll be chasing the current matrix for race two during the wagering cycle to try to get to the same answer I had 20 minutes ago from the race one matrix. I'm not sure why but carry on.
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Old 01-24-2023, 09:58 PM   #25
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With all due respect you've misunderstood entirely, whomever wins the first leg didn't impact those projected odds for race two whatsoever. I think you're thinking of will pays. I'm not using will pays, I'm using the full matrix like you are. Only you're not using the final matrix you're using an early matrix before all the money is in to interpret the odds for the current race, so with respect to projecting the next race that's even less useful. My intent is to know what the likely final odds will be for the next race so when I handicap it I know what odds I can most likely expect. For race two you'll be chasing the current matrix for race to which isn't final to try to get to the same answer I had 20 minutes ago. I'm not sure why but carry on.
Let's roll back to the Saturday Race 1 situation at Aqueduct for specifics.

In the Win Pool, Chief Engineer was 4-1 at the close ($10.20). However, when you calculate the amount of money bet on Chief Engineer as the lead runner on all Race 1 Double tickets, you will find that Chief Engineer's odds in that pool plunged to 2-1 (if calculated like a Win pool) during the interval of 120 seconds to post and 60 seconds to post. In other words, the CAW active pool saw an influx of cash on combinations starting with Chief Engineer.

If you believe that the CAW wagers are "smart" money, this would imply that Chief Engineer was a huge overlay at 4-1 in the Race 1 Win pool.

The only place I can use that information in real time is in the final minute of win wagering on Race 1. So, I am not interested in what happens with Race 2 at all. I am trying to use the CAW money coming into the Double pool as a flag to opportunities in the Race 1 Win pool.

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Old 01-25-2023, 06:48 AM   #26
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its really beyond impossible for a regular day-to-day or weekend warrior to win these days at this game. in NYRA they are still giving you a fighting chance at the win pools. you cannot go up against the CAW and expect to come out of the war with your shoelaces left with all the tools these guys have. the irony of the whole situation is that there are some really good everyday handicappers that bet in a normal manner, the CAW doesn't really need handicappers, all they need is a good model and great tools.
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Old 01-25-2023, 10:43 AM   #27
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its really beyond impossible for a regular day-to-day or weekend warrior to win these days at this game. in NYRA they are still giving you a fighting chance at the win pools. you cannot go up against the CAW and expect to come out of the war with your shoelaces left with all the tools these guys have. the irony of the whole situation is that there are some really good everyday handicappers that bet in a normal manner, the CAW doesn't really need handicappers, all they need is a good model and great tools.

There are only three things necessary to show a profit. First, you need to be able to project the final odds within a tight enough tolerance. I've gone over how that is done repeatedly out here, what tools are needed? Excel, that's about it. Second you need to be able to look at those projected odds and find an overlay. That's a handicapping problem. Give yourself a 50% cushion on that so if the horse is 3-1 projected and you make him 2-1 then bet on it. Simple. Third, you need be able to manage a bankroll and not overbet your edge. Even with a positive flat bet ROI on these bets if you overbet the % of bankroll it leads to ruin. That's absolutely all you need to do, those three things. None of those three fundamentals have anything at all to do with these bogeymen, CAW, rebated players you name it.

The two other challenges are frequency of the overlays, so more good players in the pool = the final odds appear to be more accurate to you, meaning you will spot fewer of the 50% overlays on a day to day basis. Takeout also leads to fewer overlays, no doubt, a rebate can offset that to some extent. Those two things matter but they don't impact the fundamentals behind profit / loss. If we're doing all of the above and still losing that's a handicapping problem, tbh, we need to find a way to get better, that's all it is.
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Old 01-25-2023, 11:23 AM   #28
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i am going to break down this game just to show how tough it is.
hypothetically speaking a track that does a $1 million a day handle, people bring to the track $300,000 to make that handle. on the conservative side of things it takes $200,000 to pay for takeout and breakage. that leaves you $100,000 left. lets give the CAW credit for extracting $40,000 out of that money, that would only leave $60,000 left for all the other customers to bring home with them. the numbers i have presented are not accurate, but they are somewhat close. the tools that the CAW are playing with make them winners, not their handicapping. if you are one of the few that are at the top of the class at winning without the CAW edges, i tip my hat to you. in any form of gambling, the people that win are the very best advertisement to gain more business. thats why casino's make people pose for pictures when they take down big jackpots on the slot machines. outside of the CAW, the racing game has a very tough time finding winners.
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