times have been down for the most part

[boys at tosconova]

times have been down for the most part in every prep, graded, including allow and such

i don't know what to make of it. maybe temperature or track condition played a role. i like to use a 1/1/16 as a barometer for many of these horses. it's a really good separator. unfortunately several jumped it so you some insufficient data. but for the most part usually all TC hopefuls have reference to it. what i do see is plenty of bunching, time wise. really void of a standout in an exemplary time.

just going over the program only 4 horses won in 142 change this season. that's a nice race but the tb derby has produced so many fast times at this distance and this year it came up so so as well. it was an off track, and in that race CC was trending to a possible 141 time (like several previous to him) but the race came back 144 change yet he still won. again,..it's not exact and he did win by open lengths in 144, but it's noted.

those 4 horses are

cyberknife 142.2
messier 142.4 (142.1 losing by 1L @2yrold)
white abarrio 142.4
classic causeway 142.4 (wtf happened to this horse last race?)

3/4 of those times were at the bottom of which means any horse in the low 143 wasn't far back rendering them closer and making things somewhat inconsequential. again. you're putting different fruit in the basket from different places, but race time numbers don't usually lie if they stick out. unfortunately..there's less sticking out this year

as they went further nothing really stood out except for a couple races and a few horses that ran well. taiba, epicenter, messier 2ndplc, and then you come to mo donegal and his wood time. imo it doesn't look real and is an anomaly vs lame ducks. being that white abarrio and simplification beat him in the bull. but that was one of the 142 races. in summary, that means mo has run in 2 pretty fast races in his last 2. and although he didn't beat much in the wood the time was there. as for cyberknife. just based on the 142.2 he's one of the fastest horses in the race. horse has tactical speed and it's a fact that he's worked through and overcome his problems with his last 2 preps. just based on my 1/1/16 capping this horse could easily be a major player. and epicenters 1/16 races are nothing special @ 144 and 144.1

[Michael]

Nobody really knows about Classic Causeway... trainer said the horse scoped fine post race. Then recently I heard he thinks CC may have flipped his palate. I think he plays a large part in the outcome of the race though... if he sends? we can see a 45 and change to the half... and a possible meltdown. if not... Anything goes and we might just get those two japanese horses dictating the early pace. Who knows

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Michael

Nobody really knows about Classic Causeway... trainer said the horse scoped fine post race. Then recently I heard he thinks CC may have flipped his palate. I think he plays a large part in the outcome of the race though... if he sends? we can see a 45 and change to the half... and a possible meltdown. if not... Anything goes and we might just get those two japanese horses dictating the early pace. Who knows

if cc's last race didn't exist. or you put a line through it the horse becomes appealing as a legit longshot.

[boys at tosconova]

cyberknife just got flattered even more with secret oaths win

[zico20]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

if cc's last race didn't exist. or you put a line through it the horse becomes appealing as a legit longshot.

No he doesn't!!! He walked on the lead against a terrible group in the Tampa Derby. That easy lead doesn't happen here and he is most likely going to run last. He can't close to save his life. The first one to toss.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by zico20

No he doesn't!!! He walked on the lead against a terrible group in the Tampa Derby. That easy lead doesn't happen here and he is most likely going to run last. He can't close to save his life. The first one to toss.

nonsense

you want to debate the veracity of cc being an appealing longshot if he didn't have the fl derby.

horse finished 3rd in a g1, beat white abarrio and holds one of the fastest times @ 1/1/16...his body of work outside that race was pretty damn good.

sorry, that's not first throw out material if his fla derby didn't exist.

but bravo to you saying he would be the first one you toss.

[lamboguy]

no question about it, the times were a bit slower, while the races were great...i was thinking about this and came up with the conclusion that this was the first year that all the horses ran without Lasix. in my opinion, the Lasix gets them to go faster. the top 4 finishers from the oaks all ran great and could turn the tables at some point in time. ECHO ZULO ran lights out into a contested first quarter in 22 and change quarter. i was very surprised to see how well she finished up

if you are a fan of 3-year-old racing, you will probably see a great Kentucky Derby later today.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

...if you are a fan of 3-year-old racing, you will probably see a great Kentucky Derby later today.

Memorable, anyway. I saw the title of this thread, but didn't put 2 and 2 together = 80 until later. Should have read this thread and maybe it would have clicked. (though probably not)

Without lasix, the horses probably carry more weight on race day. Some of the times were slow at CD, and that could be interpreted as a tiring track. There was moisture in the fast track, and CD has a weird surface to begin with - but again, maybe indicating "Mine That Bird" tiring.

Put that all together, and a stayer makes more sense, though his SHOT OUT OF A CANNON close has me wondering.....

I suspect we'll see some of the ponies that faded come back strong at a different track. I bet Messier, and was glad to see Johnny V wrap up on him when he started fading. Save a little wear and tear to fight another day.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Memorable, anyway. I saw the title of this thread, but didn't put 2 and 2 together = 80 until later. Should have read this thread and maybe it would have clicked. (though probably not)

Without lasix, the horses probably carry more weight on race day. Some of the times were slow at CD, and that could be interpreted as a tiring track. There was moisture in the fast track, and CD has a weird surface to begin with - but again, maybe indicating "Mine That Bird" tiring.

Put that all together, and a stayer makes more sense, though his SHOT OUT OF A CANNON close has me wondering.....

I suspect we'll see some of the ponies that faded come back strong at a different track. I bet Messier, and was glad to see Johnny V wrap up on him when he started fading. Save a little wear and tear to fight another day.

i have no way to prove this, but if this horse had run last year, he would have finished in the bottom 10 of the field.

no lasix just might bring more interest in the sport.