Santa Anita Morning Line

[dasch]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Valento's right. White knows all this stuff, and has handicapped it in. He basically gives us HIS ML instead of what the public would be expected to do. He has always done it this way as far as I can see. His job is to come as close to the final odds as possible, not to give us his opinion. Drives me CRAZY!!!! Because there have been times when his opinion has been DEAD WRONG, and he's made many a ML on that. I've seen his ML fav go to 4th or 5th in the betting, AND HE KNEW IT WOULD. Even said it during the paddock commentary. Man, I wish I could remember the race a couple years ago when he made, I believe a Koriner trained horse, 20-1 ML because he did not like it's last race. First flip of the board, 3-1. Goes off at about 6 if I remember and just airmails. Wins by 5 or some such nonsense.

I am not talking about his morning lines overall, just this one in particular. New low profile trainer, new country, long layoff, works not particularly anything special. *8-5 morning line favorite would have been ridiculous to me.

Where did you hear he makes the lines on what HE thinks they should be not the public? I have heard him 100 times on the radio say the exact opposite, that his lines are what he thinks the PUBLIC will make the horse.

Believe it or not from what I hear him say what goes into it he spends a lot of time and thought into making his line. Very conscientious about it.........sometimes he is wrong.

[ultracapper]

Observation. I play SoCal every day, and I listen to him during the paddock period. Damn, I wish I could find that one horse. he spent the whole 20 minutes heading up to the race defending his 20-1 ML even as the horse was being bet. There was a race a couple weeks ago, I brought it up on the forum at the time, where he made a horse the 4-1 4th choice, and while they were saddling the horses, HE CAME RIGHT OUT AND SAID THIS HORSE WILL PROBABLY GO OFF AS THE FAVORITE. And it did. I think it went off at 9/5 or 8/5. If he knew it would go off as the 9/5 favorite, ISN'T IT HIS JOB TO MAKE IT THE 9/5 ML favorite? That's his job, right?

[dasch]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Observation. I play SoCal every day, and I listen to him during the paddock period. Damn, I wish I could find that one horse. he spent the whole 20 minutes heading up to the race defending his 20-1 ML even as the horse was being bet. There was a race a couple weeks ago, I brought it up on the forum at the time, where he made a horse the 4-1 4th choice, and while they were saddling the horses, HE CAME RIGHT OUT AND SAID THIS HORSE WILL PROBABLY GO OFF AS THE FAVORITE. And it did. I think it went off at 9/5 or 8/5. If he knew it would go off as the 9/5 favorite, ISN'T IT HIS JOB TO MAKE IT THE 9/5 ML favorite? That's his job, right?

Its one thing to create a morning line 1-2 days before, and its another after you can see how the money is actually being bet. I am sure at that point since the horses were in the paddock he already saw the $$ being bet on the horse and knew from past experience that when the money shows up on whatever barn it was the horse is live. Grayson is a perfect example of a barn in which that happens.

[Dark Horse]

It's just a ML...

Yes, the ML odds add up to 120% at Belmont, and to 135% at Santa Anita. Roughly.

By the time the tote board starts moving that's no longer the case. Typically, the SA odds will fluctuate between 122 and 128% until the race goes off. That's acceptable. It's not uncommon to see a jump from 123% or so to 127% a couple of minutes before the race (that one has me scratching my head; when it's done without making room for an odds change for a big favorite). There are tracks where that number adds up to 130-135% just before the race.... (Turf Paradise comes to mind), and that, imo, opens the door to fraud.

In order to know what the real percentages are you need a conversion to 100%.
I only do that for the live odds, but you could add a conversion for the ML odds.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Observation. I play SoCal every day, and I listen to him during the paddock period. Damn, I wish I could find that one horse. he spent the whole 20 minutes heading up to the race defending his 20-1 ML even as the horse was being bet. There was a race a couple weeks ago, I brought it up on the forum at the time, where he made a horse the 4-1 4th choice, and while they were saddling the horses, HE CAME RIGHT OUT AND SAID THIS HORSE WILL PROBABLY GO OFF AS THE FAVORITE. And it did. I think it went off at 9/5 or 8/5. If he knew it would go off as the 9/5 favorite, ISN'T IT HIS JOB TO MAKE IT THE 9/5 ML favorite? That's his job, right?

Exactly. Your logic (and mine) is flying right over the heads of some on here. It has almost NOTHING to do with handicapping who might win, or why a horse is vulnerable to get beat and so on. It has ONLY to do with creating a morning line that will closely replicate the betting.

If someone, even Jon White, wants to pick apart Habibi at 2-1 morning line, fine! Great! But to make her a co third choice is silly. Maybe I'll be the idiot here but my experience leads me to believe she will be between 3-2 and 2-1. Maybe, maybe, maybe slide up to 5-2 but absolutely no higher. She will be the favorite or second favorite to the Mullins runner.

[dasch]

Originally Posted by Valento

Exactly. Your logic (and mine) is flying right over the heads of some on here. It has almost NOTHING to do with handicapping who might win, or why a horse is vulnerable to get beat and so on. It has ONLY to do with creating a morning line that will closely replicate the betting.

If someone, even Jon White, wants to pick apart Habibi at 2-1 morning line, fine! Great! But to make her a co third choice is silly. Maybe I'll be the idiot here but my experience leads me to believe she will be between 3-2 and 2-1. Maybe, maybe, maybe slide up to 5-2 but absolutely no higher. She will be the favorite or second favorite to the Mullins runner.

Trust me nothing is flying over anybody's head. I gave you the LOGIC behind why Habibi wont be as low as you think, and even another opinion that will be printed under her PPs in every DRF sold that says that person is just going to watch her and not bet. Its pretty hard to be the favorite unless people are betting.

Oh I forgot to add you dont think the 2 will be the favorite OR even the 2nd choice? LMAO

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by dasch

Trust me nothing is flying over anybody's head. I gave you the LOGIC behind why Habibi wont be as low as you think, and even another opinion that will be printed under her PPs in every DRF sold that says that person is just going to watch her and not bet. Its pretty hard to be the favorite unless people are betting.

Oh I forgot to add you dont think the 2 will be the favorite OR even the 2nd choice? LMAO

Anyone that is reading the "closer look" comments to decide what to bet isn't impacting the win pools.

People bet Euro shippers off the board. While there is certainly reasons for concern with her health and intent to win this race, the public will ultimately bet her class in this spot. Maybe I'll be wrong. I've been wrong before. I would be surprised if I am.

Gentleman's wager - - 2-1 or less.

[dasch]

Originally Posted by Valento

Anyone that is reading the "closer look" comments to decide what to bet isn't impacting the win pools.

People bet Euro shippers off the board. While there is certainly reasons for concern with her health and intent to win this race, the public will ultimately bet her class in this spot. Maybe I'll be wrong. I've been wrong before. I would be surprised if I am.

Gentleman's wager - - 2-1 or less.

Fair enough, I added the "closer look" comment to show you that people are skeptical of her. I will include her in my bets but only because she is a question mark to me, not because I think she will win. I really am unsure of how she will perform. I see nothing that tells me she will be 100%.

I will be surprised if she is the favorite, in fact if she is bet that heavily I will EXPECT her to win. 2-1 to 5-2 2nd choice is what I expect to see.

[dasch]

They put in a scratch for Habibi for tomorrow. Because of the small field she is "stuck" but will be out tomorrow morning.

[Dark Horse]

Fwiw, even with the ML's apart by 15%, the tote board management at SA and Belmont is very similar. As soon as the board starts moving, the difference is gone.

Aside from the normal practice of making room for a line move for a big favorite by moving all the other odds first, they also share a habit of moving the odds from low 120's to 127-range a couple of minutes before the race. This move had me scratching my head, because it's not in preparation for an odds change. After thinking about it some more, I realized that's probably to protect themselves against late money on the favorite, and the public outcry that might cause if it happened too often. Often, in these case, the favorite doesn't move at all, so it would have to be a preventative strategy.

[Turfday]

In California, for example, the takeout on win bets is 15.3%.

Therefore to begin making a morning line, 115.3% is the base number for the field. The factor of breakage is approximately 1% per horse.

A six-horse field should balance to about 121-122% in reality.

A nine-horse field should balance to about 124-125% in reality.

A 12-horse field should balance to about 127-128% in reality.

The percentages in a bigger field will vary more slightly than a smaller field. A poster in this thread queried why does the win pool percentage in a field vary? One reason is the size of the field.

I do believe it's the difference between a few horses in the race who are, say a "long 8/1" rather than a "short 8/1".... a "long 4/1" as compared to a "short 4/1." A couple or a few "long" payoffs within a race would presumably add some percentage to the win pool.

Example.... a $19.80 win payoff on the 8/1 shot instead of a $18.00 payoff.
A $10.80 win payoff on the 4/1 shot instead of a $10.00 payoff. A few of those within a race could skew the percentages a bit higher.

[redeye007]

I have emailed Santa Anita many times, to no avail of course requesting that they terminate Jon White and hire a professional morning line oddsmaker that will not set the odds of 6 horses in a 9 horse field at 4-1. His morning line is ludicrous. At least half the field is assigned almost identical odds. It is impossible to identify the best horse with the best chance of winning with his oddsline. It's as if he doesn't want to commit to attempting to identify the best horse on paper and making it the favorite but instead makes 7 horses in a 10 horse field almost identical odds separated by 1/2 point. His oddsline is the very reason why many bettors have transferred their interest in wagering on a horse race to other tracks. He should be fired for incompetance. He obviously uses some sort of software utilizing commercial data files which apparently makes a case for every runner to be the favorite. I wonder if he has ever tried reading the DRF records of the runners.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by redeye007

I have emailed Santa Anita many times, to no avail of course requesting that they terminate Jon White and hire a professional morning line oddsmaker that will not set the odds of 6 horses in a 9 horse field at 4-1. His morning line is ludicrous. At least half the field is assigned almost identical odds. It is impossible to identify the best horse with the best chance of winning with his oddsline. It's as if he doesn't want to commit to attempting to identify the best horse on paper and making it the favorite but instead makes 7 horses in a 10 horse field almost identical odds separated by 1/2 point. His oddsline is the very reason why many bettors have transferred their interest in wagering on a horse race to other tracks. He should be fired for incompetance. He obviously uses some sort of software utilizing commercial data files which apparently makes a case for every runner to be the favorite. I wonder if he has ever tried reading the DRF records of the runners.

Read posts 15 and 19 of this thread. He's either incompetent, or he's told to lie by the suits (i.e. bought and paid for).

[Stillriledup]

Is Jon White still working in the racing industry?