Put some discipline in your game.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I personally don’t do any handicapping any longer and haven’t done so for many years. I came to the conclusion that no matter how good my handicapping abilities were, that very often I was coming up with the same selections that others were. Later only to find that these entries either won at short prices or discovered that they were never intentionally pointed toward winning efforts to begin with.

I support the idea of being selective when it comes to playing the races, but only in terms of identifying those races that offer reasonable value. However, I completely disagree with the concept of “Picking Winners”. I believe this game is ALL about making Winning Plays. So, from that perspective I consider the betting side of the game to be the more significant aspect of playing successfully.

My discipline is derived from the realization that I’m an Outsider playing an Insider’s game. My only interest is finding those contenders in a race (no matter what their odds) that I believe will actually be trying to win. Unfortunately the everyday written data found in the past performances just won’t provide that type of information.

Nitro you are one of my favorite posters and I know you win. Lose that Johnny Carson avatar brother!

[jay68802]

Sorry Cincy, it should stay.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4GduUWv-mA

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by dav4463

We've all bet too many races, bet too many short priced horses or took too many chances on longshots looking for the "big one". If this is you; try this approach.

WIN bets only+ (rare place bet)! Commit yourself to betting to WIN.

Handicap the whole card.

Do not deviate from this plan.

Here it is:

In EACH race on today's card at ONE track--- Pick one horse that you consider playable from each of these four Morning Line Odds categories.

5/2 or less
3-1 through 9/2
5-1 through 9-1 (are there any 9-1 morning lines?)
10-1+

Sometimes a race will not have a horse in a category. So, in that case only pick if there is a qualifier. Most of the time you will have picked four horses in each race---one from each of the four odds ranges.

Now go back over the card and pick your BEST PLAY in each category and ONE WILD CARD. Look for value and stick with your plan. MAKE ONLY FIVE WIN BETS. The bet amount can vary. That's up to you.

A good way is to divide it up. If you have $100 to bet.....Bet $25 to win on each of your two strongest plays. Bet $20 to win on each of your next two strongest plays. Then put $10 to win on your wildcard pick......just an example to use as a guide.

Bet no more than two horses in any one race. You may also bet to PLACE on your selection from the 10-1+ range instead of WIN only.

That's it. FIVE bets per card. It will improve your game and force you to pass races and play your strongest choices.

The beauty of the plan is you are forced to look at horses from the higher odds ranges and find something worth playing. You still play some low odds horses but knowing you only have five bets, you are forced to concentrate on picking the best play.

David, Good post. Although some on here say they go weeks without a bet, for most bettors, limiting to five per card is a step in the right direction. As you said, keeping records might tell us which category is our sweet spot and then maybe it's only 3 per card. Eventually we'll all be betting one race every two weeks in our pajamas.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Sorry Cincy, it should stay.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4GduUWv-mA

[thaskalos]

"Discipline...it's the only God that wealth and power bow to. To the majority, it resembles a ball and chain that shackles; to the minority, it's a throne. To most, it's as elusive as a disappearing mist; to a few, it's their finest outer garment. The forefather of discipline is pain, adversity and failure. It's lessons learned and experiences that taught. It flies on wings of steel, an unalterable course that gives full meaning to that destination called life. Its pathways are as straight as an arrow; its impact is as sure as an arrow to the heart.

At its dawning, discipline is rooted in pain; yet by the evening its reward is pleasure. Those who reject discipline, accept the momentary pleasure of being undisciplined, while not knowing that their pain arrives in the evening...remaining there as a constant companion.

Before you decide to gamble...go make an unassailable covenant with discipline. To do so will make you an unbeatable foe; the hunter, not the hunted; the stalker, not the prey. And know this! Bravado in the heart of a gambler without discipline is nothing more than an application for slavery...a resume submitted by the foolish."

The above was written by a gentleman named Juel E. Anderson, in his book POKER, SEX & DYING: The Heart of a Gambler. I have it framed and hung on the wall of my bedroom...and I carry its message to whatever gambling arena I might happen to venture in. You guys are my friends...and I would advise you to do the same.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

"Discipline...it's the only God that wealth and power bow to. To the majority, it resembles a ball and chain that shackles; to the minority, it's a throne. To most, it's as elusive as a disappearing mist; to a few, it's their finest outer garment. The forefather of discipline is pain, adversity and failure. It's lessons learned and experiences that taught. It flies on wings of steel, an unalterable course that gives full meaning to that destination called life. Its pathways are as straight as an arrow; its impact is as sure as an arrow to the heart.

At its dawning, discipline is rooted in pain; yet by the evening its reward is pleasure. Those who reject discipline, accept the momentary pleasure of being undisciplined, while not knowing that their pain arrives in the evening...remaining there as a constant companion.

Before you decide to gamble...go make an unassailable covenant with discipline. To do so will make you an unbeatable foe; the hunter, not the hunted; the stalker, not the prey. And know this! Bravado in the heart of a gambler without discipline is nothing more than an application for slavery...a resume submitted by the foolish."

The above was written by a gentleman named Juel E. Anderson, in his book POKER, SEX & DYING: The Heart of a Gambler. I have it framed and hung on the wall of my bedroom...and I carry its message to whatever gambling arena I might happen to venture in. You guys are my friends...and I would advise you to do the same.

My man!

[Franco Santiago]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Belmont we are all works in progress. And at every phase of our handicapping, judgement, and betting ability. I am purely humble at the foot of this game. I love it. Am dedicated to it. New revelations come and go but I am really starting to add meat and potatoes to the everyday. That sure as hell didn't happen over night! And players including yourself on here got me to this point. Good handicapping, good people, experience, some much needed luck=we'll get there!

I appreciate your enthusiasm! Glad to see it.

The reason I am replying to your post is your last sentence: Good handicapping, good people, experience, some much needed luck=we'll get there!

I would submit that the great majority of people don't know where "there" is and that is a significant reason for losing. I found "there" a few years ago and it was a huge help because I then had a direction. I always like to ask, "where does Somewhere Street lead?"

Good luck, Cincy.

[Tom]

"where does Somewhere Street lead?"

Nowhere.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Franco Santiago

I appreciate your enthusiasm! Glad to see it.

The reason I am replying to your post is your last sentence: Good handicapping, good people, experience, some much needed luck=we'll get there!

I would submit that the great majority of people don't know where "there" is and that is a significant reason for losing. I found "there" a few years ago and it was a huge help because I then had a direction. I always like to ask, "where does Somewhere Street lead?"

Good luck, Cincy.

For all the blind alleys and moments of being lost I've experienced, I am committed to this game and for me it's easy to do. The seasonal races to follow and the seasonal routines that have developed over the years I just always look forward to it. I love thinking about horses. That makes all the work on handicapping skills enjoyable. And the winning moments have been awesome! From an earning perspective I feel I am truly coming into my own. Not trying to mass produce winners but maximizing what I can grab.

[PIC6SIX]

I am in total agreement with you Nitro especially your view on betting.

[dav4463]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

David, Good post. Although some on here say they go weeks without a bet, for most bettors, limiting to five per card is a step in the right direction. As you said, keeping records might tell us which category is our sweet spot and then maybe it's only 3 per card. Eventually we'll all be betting one race every two weeks in our pajamas.

Thanks! That's what I'm trying to say. As for me wanting others to be less disciplined, I guess that's true in a way! However, I think if you help someone out that is struggling; it may come back to you some day....karma you know!

I've learned a lot from this board and I see too many people at the track that just don't have a clue! I don't mind pointing them in a better direction. Who knows, I may save a marriage or two!

[dav4463]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

I don't know if you bet or not, but if you do, don't you want people to be less disciplined?

True I guess!

But if there weren't others willing to share their ideas; I would never make a smart bet. I learned everything about horse betting from someone who was willing to share a little! (including this board)

[railbird]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I personally don’t do any handicapping any longer and haven’t done so for many years. I came to the conclusion that no matter how good my handicapping abilities were, that very often I was coming up with the same selections that others were. Later only to find that these entries either won at short prices or discovered that they were never intentionally pointed toward winning efforts to begin with.

I support the idea of being selective when it comes to playing the races, but only in terms of identifying those races that offer reasonable value. However, I completely disagree with the concept of “Picking Winners”. I believe this game is ALL about making Winning Plays. So, from that perspective I consider the betting side of the game to be the more significant aspect of playing successfully.

My discipline is derived from the realization that I’m an Outsider playing an Insider’s game. My only interest is finding those contenders in a race (no matter what their odds) that I believe will actually be trying to win. Unfortunately the everyday written data found in the past performances just won’t provide that type of information.

Pray tell where could you find info that the gen public cannot???? Unless you decipher the exotics board to determine suspicious combos , other than that ...........????

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by railbird

Pray tell where could you find info that the gen public cannot???? Unless you decipher the exotics board to determine suspicious combos , other than that ...........????

Private clockers, owners, trainers, agents.....

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by railbird

Pray tell where could you find info that the gen public cannot???? Unless you decipher the exotics board to determine suspicious combos , other than that ...........????

The general public can find that information very easily because it’s public domain and available in real time during every betting cycle. In general it’s called the Tote board and the detailed information it contains is the flow of money being wagered simultaneously in a number of betting pools. Analyzing that information properly is the key. I won’t rehash what I’ve mentioned a number of times before, but if you’re interested you can read the following Post #30:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ng+Kong&page=2

Originally Posted by jay68802

Private clockers, owners, trainers, agents.....

Close but no cigar! It’s the connections alright, but it’s not what they SAY, it’s what they DO (in terms of their wagering): ie. Actions definitely speak louder than words.