"I'm disappointed with the trip", Brown said

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by metro

Not sure of the exact distance but because of the run-up on sprints at Pimlico you basically have to take a full second off of the first quarter times to get a better gauge of early speed.

There are run-ups for routes at Pimlico as well. For better explanation would reference comments CJ made in his thread about the TimeformUS Speed Figures for the stakes races on BES and Preakness days.

I did see that post and I misread the important point. The run up for the Preakness was shorter than the run up for the other routes but much longer than the sprints. I had read it thinking that the run up for the Preakness (and Pimlico Special) was 30 feet and all other races were 55 feet. Not true.

So my comment about the Preakness opening quarter outstripping a few of the sprints holds no water. But--if I'm thinking about this correctly--the rest of it still stands. The fact that the run up is shorter for the Preakness than the other routes actually enhances how quick the early pace was relative to those other route races.

Thanks for the heads up.

[big frank]

Brown is a cry baby and sounded like a child after the race............Grow up Baby Chad !

[metro]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I did see that post and I misread the important point. The run up for the Preakness was shorter than the run up for the other routes but much longer than the sprints. I had read it thinking that the run up for the Preakness (and Pimlico Special) was 30 feet and all other races were 55 feet. Not true.

So my comment about the Preakness opening quarter outstripping a few of the sprints holds no water. But--if I'm thinking about this correctly--the rest of it still stands. The fact that the run up is shorter for the Preakness than the other routes actually enhances how quick the early pace was relative to those other route races.

Thanks for the heads up.

Guess the question becomes, how long does it take (in feet or yards) a horse to get up to race speed? Another data point that's above my handicapping grade.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I did see that post and I misread the important point. The run up for the Preakness was shorter than the run up for the other routes but much longer than the sprints. I had read it thinking that the run up for the Preakness (and Pimlico Special) was 30 feet and all other races were 55 feet. Not true.

So my comment about the Preakness opening quarter outstripping a few of the sprints holds no water. But--if I'm thinking about this correctly--the rest of it still stands. The fact that the run up is shorter for the Preakness than the other routes actually enhances how quick the early pace was relative to those other route races.

Thanks for the heads up.

There is no need to worry about run ups and different distances, CJ has that built into all his figures.

Here are the pace figures for the 4f and 6f mark for each stakes race

Preakness 140 137 (9.5F)
Pim Specil 138 137 (9.5F)
Blck Eyed 115 109 (9)
Dupont Dist 132 124 (9)
James Murph 120 112 (8.5)
Sir Barton 126 120 (8.5F)

So Justify and Good Magic, at the longest race all weekend, set the fasted 6f pace, and THEN opened up on the field, Justify put away a champion race horse and tired at the end.

It was not a good effort, it was a GREAT effort.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

the BAD ride was because he slowly drifted towards THE DEAD rail....knew he was done just after the turn for home....if roles had been reversed...who knows....but he was slowly herded in by the bigger intimidating horse...and then buried....

He was bumped into it.

Pull up the video, when you get to the turn on the stretch, right when Collmus says Good Magic puts a head in front. Boom. Good Magic ran the rest of the race on the rail, Justify shifted to the 2 path.

Had he not run the end of the stretch on the rail, he likely would have hit the board at least, he almost did anyway, and apparently that is all Chad Brown and a lot of "fans" seem to have wanted. Not a horse race, but a script. And this why dirt racing is going to hell.

Everyone is mad at Ortiz because he went off script. Jose himself said he didn't take back because the pace was too slow, just as it appeared to everyone who was watching it in real time and believed until they were told they were wrong afterward. Smith's bizarre immediate post-race comment only really makes sense if you it apply it to the bump. He answered a question he wasn't asked. Otherwise, it is nonsensical.

Anywho,

Ortiz improved Good Magic's position vis a vis Justify by one and a half lengths. There is nothing that says Good Magic still wouldn't have been passed by either Bravazo and/or Tenfold had Ortiz behaved himself. I'll give you any odds you want that had Ortiz taken back, he would not have won.

People insisting the pace was fast should listen to Jose Ortiz's immediate interview with Scott Hazelton--the one before he got scapegoated by Brown. Then listen to Bravazo's jockey's immediate post-race interview with Scott. He said he was right behind them and was not having trouble keeping up. He said he'd been sitting just off of Justify since the 1/2.

The fog has really screwed up people's perceptions of the race, because they couldn't see what was going on and made up much of what they think they saw. A jockey on a dark horse in dark silks on the outside in dense fog is invisible, and Bravazo was. He was there the whole time.

For those that say I must accept CJ''s pace figures, thank you for your concern.

[cj]

Originally Posted by papillon

For those that say I must accept CJ''s pace figures, thank you for your concern.

You don't need to accept anything, but personally I wish you'd just leave me out of your arguments. You made things up in the GOAT thread about me and when I replied you didn't have the courtesy to respond.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...13&postcount=7

I don't know what your problem is with me and I really don't care, but i'm not going to take the bait again.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by papillon

For those that say I must accept CJ''s pace figures, thank you for your concern.

You can accept whatever you want, jockey quotes about pace and speed figures...should always be taken with a grain of salt!

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

There is no need to worry about run ups and different distances, CJ has that built into all his figures.

There's a couple of folks on here who are dismissing his figures outright for some reason and claiming the pace was slow. I figured I'd present a cruder way of demonstrating that the pace was fast, by simply comparing the raw Preakness splits with the other route races over the weekend. I think it's fairly clear from just those alone (though CJs figures certainly throw it into much more striking relief).

So Justify and Good Magic, at the longest race all weekend, set the fasted 6f pace, and THEN opened up on the field, Justify put away a champion race horse and tired at the end.

I think the duel was unfortunate because it gutted both horses and left them vulnerable to a handful of rather undistinguished horses.

Earlier I posted about how maybe all those troubled trips in the Derby may have put Justify a bit further above the rest of the crop than he really was considering how close Bravazo and Lone Sailor got at Pimlico, but now I'm starting to think that the long-winded duel made them look a lot better than they really are.

The only 2 horses who have shown they can even remotely hang with Justify are Good Magic and Bolt D'Oro, and neither one will be in the Belmont Stakes.

Hofburg better find some of that tactical speed he showed in his maiden, Vino Rosso better make sure he gets involved in the far turn as he did in the Wood and his first 2 starts, and Solomino better uncork some of that front-running speed he displayed in the BC Juvenile or it's going to be another merry-go-round a la American Pharoah...

At least those 3 have the requisite Tapit or Curlin pedigree that's dominated the race the last few years.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...the "aggressive tactic" isn't commendable, unless it helps the horse to its best possible finish. In this regard...I have to call Ortiz's riding tactics a failure.

True, but that's easy to say after the race. Ortiz had a GR1 winner who had just run a huge race in the Derby. It's not like he was riding a weak horse.

Those of you who know Brad Thomas (Monmouth), he praised Jose Ortiz's ride on TVG yesterday. He said something like, "that's what racing is about, you try to win when you have a good horse" .

[pandy]

Originally Posted by metro

In fairness to Jose he had just had a front row seat on Title Ready to Mike Smith and Ax Man's unchallenged front running win in the Sir Barton. Been there, done that.

Good Magic's only shot at winning was to engage Justify and the fractions were reasonable. Ortiz surely would have preferred more of an outside pressing type situation but didn't have the luxury of sacrificing his position, especially considering what had shown to be a speed favoring surface on most all prior races.

Good analysis. I don't see how Jose can be criticized when he drew inside of Justify, and, the pace was slow. He certainly didn't kill his horse in a wicked pace.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

You can accept whatever you want, jockey quotes about pace and speed figures...should always be taken with a grain of salt!

These statements about jocks and trainers always lying or being wrong is such nonsense. No one has a better idea of how fast a horse is running or how hard a horse is working than the guy on its back, particularly after they're familiar with the horse.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

These statements about jocks and trainers always lying or being wrong is such nonsense. No one has a better idea of how fast a horse is running or how hard a horse is working than the guy on its back, particularly after they're familiar with the horse.

How hard the horse is working, yes. How fast they are actually going, no.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

These statements about jocks and trainers always lying or being wrong is such nonsense. No one has a better idea of how fast a horse is running or how hard a horse is working than the guy on its back, particularly after they're familiar with the horse.

I have had jockeys say the pace was slow only to look at the figures for the day and they were blazing.

I have had trainers say the horse was dead ready before the race and then say he needed a race after.

I am not saying they dont have a good idea, just that what they say can be inconsistent.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by cj

How hard the horse is working, yes. How fast they are actually going, no.

That's why I said if they're familiar with the horse. A horse's way of going, particularly the big strided ones who go fast easily, can fool them at first by going faster than they thought.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I have had jockeys say the pace was slow only to look at the figures for the day and they were blazing.

I have had trainers say the horse was dead ready before the race and then say he needed a race after.

I am not saying they dont have a good idea, just that what they say can be inconsistent.

I acknowledge that trainers and riders can be wrong, but they're still in a position to be more right than anyone. The idea that all are wrong or lying all the time is what I take exception to. Some are always honest and more often than not right, some are at the other extreme, and others land in between. I think it's far wiser if you're seeking the truth to look for what makes sense.