Truly looking for honest opinions.

[Thebigguy]

Im not saying this is me.... How bad is this though???
Should this person retire??

This is all bets since 1/1/14

507 17.75% -0.36 $10133.30 $6497.55 $-3635.75


This is all bets 1/1/13-12/28/13

720 16.67% -0.25 $14658.10 $10934.60 $-3723.50


This is just doubles from 1/1/13-12/28/13
But something seems off about this one........

240 17.92% +0.00 $4550.00 $4545.35 $-4.65

This is just double since 1/1/14

166 15.66% -0.31 $3251.00 $2230.90 $-1020.10

[tanner12oz]

I can't pull mine up on my phone but pretty sure its underwater in a similar fashion..had a signer in January and a great derby but other then that I can probably count the winning days on 1 hand

[Thebigguy]

I didn't realize I could go back this far.
Is this person just a total loser who should retire??? Come on guys, be honest....

This is all bets for 2012

1300 15.77% -0.36 $22999.20 $14765.85 $-8233.35

This is all bets for 2011

1461 16.63% -0.07 $28731.60 $26576.97 $-2154.63


This is all bets for 2010

464 17.67% -0.22 $10240.40 $8016.10 $-2224.30

[Some_One]

What ever methodology or logic your friend has simply doesn't work, he's -EV. Time to go back to the drawing board or do some research.

[Thebigguy]

Bumpski!!!!!!

[Overlay]

Tom Ainslie used to say that anyone who couldn't do better long-term than to lose the combined percentage of the take (for whatever type of wager) plus breakage (5%, on the average) should refrain from wagering real money until they can at least do better than that from a valid sample of paper bets, since betting totally randomly (without any handicapping at all) would produce that result.

[Some_One]

Agree Overlay, I think I used the wrong words, while it's true he's -EV, I think what is important to say is that since his ROI is around the track take, he's basically just as well off in using a RNG for his plays, meaning whatever logic he has in his head is no better then a random guess.

[davew]

need more breakdown on type of bets and how big the scores could be


if many are pick 4, 5, 6 and hits could be thousands of dollars, than variance might keep a person doing the same thing


some doubles, so can hit winners

the person at least needs to do analysis of bet types made and decide if some of them should just be stopped

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

I didn't realize I could go back this far.
Is this person just a total loser who should retire??? Come on guys, be honest....

Is your friend in the kind of financial position where he can shrug off these losses as mere entertainment expenses? With the exception of 2012 -- where the losses got out of control -- he loses $2,000-$4,000 a year while betting about $20 per wager. I know players who lose much more than that...and say that they are "having fun".

Winning isn't everyone's top priority.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Is your friend in the kind of financial position where he can shrug off these losses as mere entertainment expenses? With the exception of 2012 -- where the losses got out of control -- he loses $2,000-$4,000 a year while betting about $20 per wager. I know players who lose much more than that...and say that they are "having fun".

Winning isn't everyone's top priority.

He is not rich. And always asks what he is doing wrong, because he is pretty sharp.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by davew

need more breakdown on type of bets and how big the scores could be


if many are pick 4, 5, 6 and hits could be thousands of dollars, than variance might keep a person doing the same thing


some doubles, so can hit winners

the person at least needs to do analysis of bet types made and decide if some of them should just be stopped

Mostly doubles and pick 3's.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Is your friend in the kind of financial position where he can shrug off these losses as mere entertainment expenses? With the exception of 2012 -- where the losses got out of control -- he loses $2,000-$4,000 a year while betting about $20 per wager. I know players who lose much more than that...and say that they are "having fun".

Winning isn't everyone's top priority.

I don't think he is really interested in having fun with it anymore.... We sometimes play together.

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

I don't think he is really interested in having fun with it anymore.... We sometimes play together.

Maybe he should start with win or show betting for now, and if he responds that the payoffs are too small (especially for show), then you know he's just a gambler out for the big score.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by davew

need more breakdown on type of bets and how big the scores could be


if many are pick 4, 5, 6 and hits could be thousands of dollars, than variance might keep a person doing the same thing


some doubles, so can hit winners

the person at least needs to do analysis of bet types made and decide if some of them should just be stopped

I can break it down more, how should I break it down?? I would appreciate anyone's advice on this.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by Some_One

Maybe he should start with win or show betting for now, and if he responds that the payoffs are too small (especially for show), then you know he's just a gambler out for the big score.

We have discussed this together. His response is that he plays doubles and pick 3's because he always likes more then 1 horse per race and his specialty is beating over bet or bad chalks. The problem I have when playing with him is we always seem to hit 2/3 on big tickets and cant close.