Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

If you maniacs don't think being able to wager vast sums of money, bringing a horse down to pretty much where your models say he should be, and also KNOWING that nobody can do a thing about it at that point, isn't some tremendous edge in and of itself, then I don't know what else to say.

It's not even about being smart. It's being ABLE to bet ENOUGH at a point where NOBODY ELSE will be able to bet, to basically LOCK IN YOUR PRICE.

They are, in effect, getting FIXED ODDS while still betting into the pari-mutuel system.

THEY KNOW what the end price will be, because they are SETTING the END PRICE.

I'm not confusing a thing.

If there models are wrong they are gong to go broke really quickly. When they knocked your horse from 9-1 to 9/2 at the last second, why was that to their advantage the the betting closed, What if a second after their bet went in, a no hoper started acting up in the gate and caused a reload and about a 3 minute delay. What would have happened to your 9/2 if they were done betting. The public would have bet other horses that they drove up and the 9/2 would have drifted to 5-1 or even 6-1. How was it to their advantage for the betting to close the second just after their bet was made. I assume that they bet so late because their models require the input of what other bettors are doing to be the most accurate. So betting at 3 seconds to off they will have a lot stronger prediction of each horses relative chances than they would have had at 3 minutes to post. Who knows maybe they even have a physicality expert on track watching the horses come up to the gate giving his analysis of each horses appearance and adding that to their model. For the amount of money they are making, it would be stupid not to.

Their advantage isn't fixed odds (which they don't have anyways, because other whales can bet the same horse) their advantage is what I detailed in my previous post.

[AltonKelsey]

Anyone can set the end price (lower) by betting a lot on whoever they like.

That's not an edge.

Unless you're manipulating the odds and betting somewhere else.

Think about it.


Think outside the box.


In itself, smashing the price lower on a horse is not an edge, and thinking it is, is foolishness.

[porchy44]

The edge in betting late is not to allow anyone “get in on it”. If we noticed most winners came from abnornally early money, many people would capitalize on that. My ROI would be higher if I could cancel any bets in which my horse went up in odds after the late action came in.

[Lafecs]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Anyone can set the end price (lower) by betting a lot on whoever they like.

That's not an edge.

Unless you're manipulating the odds and betting somewhere else.

Think about it.


Think outside the box.


In itself, smashing the price lower on a horse is not an edge, and thinking it is, is foolishness.

It is an edge if they are getting real-time odds updates. How many times do I have to say it? And please, spare me the insults...

[jay68802]

CHRB meeting minutes discussing whales, pg 12. Tote updates, pg 72 and 98.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

In itself, smashing the price lower on a horse is not an edge, and thinking it is, is foolishness.

Of course it is...IF they KNOW the end price will be where they want it to be...therefore, they can bet AS MUCH AS THEY CAN to drive it to that price and thus ensure MAXIMUM PROFIT.

I can't believe I have to explain the obvious.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

If there models are wrong they are gong to go broke really quickly.

You think they're working with inadequate models?

Come on man...and as for your other "nightmare scenarios," it all works out in the wash long term.

[green80]

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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Of course it is...IF they KNOW the end price will be where they want it to be...therefore, they can bet AS MUCH AS THEY CAN to drive it to that price and thus ensure MAXIMUM PROFIT.
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I can't believe I have to explain the obvious.

unless their is two of them trying to do it.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You think they're working with inadequate models?

Come on man...and as for your other "nightmare scenarios," it all works out in the wash long term.

Your biggest gripe is they are too good. When have you ever seen me post they have inadequate models? They are the sharpest cappers on the planet(as I have posted many times), that is why it is insane to give them rebates(as I have posted at least 100 times on this board). I am saying that their edge is the things I listed, not that they have more control of the final odds than you do. I believe they have less control of the final odds than you think they do. Their skill level and enormous rebates help them stay in the black.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Of course it is...IF they KNOW the end price will be where they want it to be...therefore, they can bet AS MUCH AS THEY CAN to drive it to that price and thus ensure MAXIMUM PROFIT.

I can't believe I have to explain the obvious.

Do you see the irony? It used to be us who had to "explain the obvious" to you on this issue, a while back...but now that you've "seen the light", the roles are reversed...and it is now YOU who has to do the "explaining"...

[AltonKelsey]

Ok, now I get it. The lower the payoff on winners, the better it is for those betting them.

And all this time , I thought we were hunting for overlays.

So what we really want is to know what horses are going to be bet down to the lowest possible odds, so we can also bet those horses.

Thanks.

To be fair, some of you may be saying that you are betting overlays but THEY are killing the price. Well, are they winning? And more importantly, were you ever getting the price you took at 2 min to post?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Your biggest gripe is they are too good. When have you ever seen me post they have inadequate models? They are the sharpest cappers on the planet(as I have posted many times), that is why it is insane to give them rebates(as I have posted at least 100 times on this board). I am saying that their edge is the things I listed, not that they have more control of the final odds than you do. I believe they have less control of the final odds than you think they do. Their skill level and enormous rebates help them stay in the black.

They aren't the "sharpest cappers on the planet". They are a bunch of rich Wall Streeters with the resources to hire some brilliant individuals, and supply them with the proper tools to get the job done. If you were a multi-millionaire retired bond trader...you could probably accomplish the same thing.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by jay68802

CHRB meeting minutes discussing whales, pg 12. Tote updates, pg 72 and 98.

Well kinda interesting, but it sure feels like the secret that they dont want to discuss is that they know certain hubs are playing games, sounds like the cancel CRW bet to manipulate the pools is the bigger issue that may be going.

Either way its clear they are way behind the tech that they are dealing with.

Its a good argument for multi race pools, again if they CRW have direct access to the tickets coming in it wont matter, but at least those odds are not shown ahead of time.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Well kinda interesting, but it sure feels like the secret that they dont want to discuss is that they know certain hubs are playing games, sounds like the cancel CRW bet to manipulate the pools is the bigger issue that may be going.

Either way its clear they are way behind the tech that they are dealing with.

Its a good argument for multi race pools, again if they CRW have direct access to the tickets coming in it wont matter, but at least those odds are not shown ahead of time.

It points out that the large bettors a connected, and catered to. Even recruited. The odds issue is known about and discussed. They also seem to think that the tote system refreshes pretty darn fast. But that it not seen that way because of lags in displaying the information. And there are a few outlets that do not have the technology to keep up or transmit their wagers in a timely fashion. I also got the impression that their conversations were cryptic. That their was some things that they did not want on record. I just do not get a feeling that it was a open discussion.

And as a side note, it seems they wanted to put out a hit on someone in Tobagano or what ever country that was.

[Lafecs]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Ok, now I get it. The lower the payoff on winners, the better it is for those betting them.

And all this time , I thought we were hunting for overlays.

So what we really want is to know what horses are going to be bet down to the lowest possible odds, so we can also bet those horses.

Thanks.

To be fair, some of you may be saying that you are betting overlays but THEY are killing the price. Well, are they winning? And more importantly, were you ever getting the price you took at 2 min to post?

No, you don’t. The OPTIMUM price on winners is best for those betting them. And I don’t have the capacity to get into college-level statistics. But you’re welcome, anyway.