Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE - Page 32 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

jay68802 · 03-26-2018, 01:59 PM

What I am seeing is all true. I am just looking at the posts of Denny, Robert, PA, Storyline, Dave W, and TP. 6 solid handicappers, and 6 different takes on the race. Personally I thought the 11 was a contender, but I also posted I was rather lost on the race. There were a lot of ways a person could view this race. Look at the thread for this race, I think 8 different horses were chosen in that thread. To get to 7-2, the last dump odds would be in the range of 3-2 to even money, maybe a little lower. Can any one say that the 11 was that type? Bolsters the argument that the late money is inside money. As for the horse being drugged? Could be. Could not be. The problem is that the person responsible knows what drugs are going to be tested for, so the horse will probably pass the drug test.

PaceAdvantage · 03-26-2018, 02:04 PM

Those who are in Track Phantom's camp on this particular race are barking up the wrong tree, and are way off, IMO.

I'll leave it at that.

dasch · 03-26-2018, 02:17 PM

Bottom line is that no matter where you stand we can ALL agree the PERCEPTION is HORRIBLE.

And WHY will NONE of the racetracks even acknowledge that this is a problem? Tim Ritvo seems to have something to say about everything yet not a peep on this issue?

cj · 03-26-2018, 02:23 PM

The most puzzling part for me about Runaway Ghost is how he suddenly found the ability to rate off the pace and finish. Anybody that handicapped that is a freaking genius.

BCOURTNEY · 03-26-2018, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Those who are in Track Phantom's camp on this particular race are barking up the wrong tree, and are way off, IMO.

I'll leave it at that.

Agreed on this race and that horse.
Easy to get to in the selection process.

BCOURTNEY · 03-26-2018, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dasch

Bottom line is that no matter where you stand we can ALL agree the PERCEPTION is HORRIBLE.

And WHY will NONE of the racetracks even acknowledge that this is a problem? Tim Ritvo seems to have something to say about everything yet not a peep on this issue?

They are afraid of losing what handle the average players bring to the game. They also probably don't want the cat out of the bag, that the players are really a bunch of back room quant computer teams plunging and dumping 50% of the pool totals at 0 MTP.

BCOURTNEY · 03-26-2018, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802

What I am seeing is all true. I am just looking at the posts of Denny, Robert, PA, Storyline, Dave W, and TP. 6 solid handicappers, and 6 different takes on the race. Personally I thought the 11 was a contender, but I also posted I was rather lost on the race. There were a lot of ways a person could view this race. Look at the thread for this race, I think 8 different horses were chosen in that thread. To get to 7-2, the last dump odds would be in the range of 3-2 to even money, maybe a little lower. Can any one say that the 11 was that type? Bolsters the argument that the late money is inside money. As for the horse being drugged? Could be. Could not be. The problem is that the person responsible knows what drugs are going to be tested for, so the horse will probably pass the drug test.

The butterfly effect of the teams queuing up their wagers on that horse and then all hitting at once after the race was off, I assume most the teams playing the horse thought they would get 5 to 5.5 to 1.

storyline · 03-26-2018, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BCOURTNEY

Agreed on this race and that horse.
Easy to get to in the selection process.

Can we see your tickets?

Not that I doubt anyone's sincerity but this is a game of opinions backed by cold-hard-cash. If a player wants credibility among others then transparency isn't optional.

Otherwise no one should take that player seriously imho.

Not picking on BCOURTNEY but I'll call out anyone who makes post-comments similar to this without proof of wager or when posting such an idiotic comment "Easy to get to in the selection process".

You'll have my apology after posting your winning tickets

dasch · 03-26-2018, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by storyline

Can we see your tickets?

Not that I doubt anyone's sincerity but this is a game of opinions backed by cold-hard-cash. If a player wants credibility among others then transparency isn't optional.

Otherwise no one should take that player seriously imho.

Not picking on BCOURTNEY but I'll call out anyone who makes post-comments similar to this without proof of wager or when posting such an idiotic comment "Easy to get to in the selection process".

You'll have my apology after posting your winning tickets

This is exactly why I put my notes for all horses/contenders in Formulator BEFORE every race is run. I dont want results to skew what my actual betting opinion was for the race.

cj · 03-26-2018, 03:18 PM

Even if many here agree the horse was a contender, and even if you think 7-2 makes sense, the horse won like a 2-5 shot. I was at the Thunder game (ugh) and heard which horse won. I was mildly surprised given the post he had. But when I saw the replay, wow. That didn't look anything like the same horse I've seen race several times.

Tom · 03-26-2018, 03:47 PM

Better living through chemistry.

JerryBoyle · 03-26-2018, 04:02 PM

FWIW, the implied probability from the daily double payoff grid from race 10 for Runaway Ghost was .1396 vs a final implied probability of abt .164. Much closer than the implied probability at 1 mtp of the 11th which was about .09.

Wagering was closed at 23:28:04 and below is the odds time series from AmWager:

HTML Code:

    Program#  Odds           TimeStamp
0         11   8.2 2018-03-25 23:21:07
1         11   8.2 2018-03-25 23:21:37
2         11   8.2 2018-03-25 23:22:07
3         11   8.2 2018-03-25 23:22:37
4         11   8.2 2018-03-25 23:23:07
5         11   8.2 2018-03-25 23:23:38
6         11   8.3 2018-03-25 23:24:08
7         11   8.3 2018-03-25 23:24:38
8         11   8.4 2018-03-25 23:25:08
9         11   8.5 2018-03-25 23:25:38
10        11   8.5 2018-03-25 23:26:08
11        11   8.6 2018-03-25 23:26:38
12        11   6.6 2018-03-25 23:27:08
13        11   4.8 2018-03-25 23:27:38
14        11   4.9 2018-03-25 23:28:05
15        11   4.9 2018-03-25 23:28:05
16        11   4.9 2018-03-25 23:28:18
17        11   4.9 2018-03-25 23:28:22
18        11   4.9 2018-03-25 23:31:22
19        11   4.9 2018-03-25 23:31:22

Doesn't seem like past posting. My guess is one team liked the 11 a lot and dropped ~$20k on him. Unfortunately, I don't have the wagering volume over time, so idk if it's due to canceled wagers.

Lastly, take this with a huge grain of salt, but the best model I have for this race (which I'm not betting due to it not backtesting profitably), resulted in an implied probability of .123. That is, combining my model's estimate and the public's at 1 mtp, but not using the daily double implied. My guess is that with the dd, my model would have been closer to .15 or so. So it's possible that there was some type of inside information here, but it seems like we could have gotten there as well...

Track Phantom · 03-26-2018, 04:40 PM

All good posts on this one.

Let me look at this through another prism.

First off, you have to believe the odds drop was either betting by one entity or multiple entities. Multiple entities is highly improbable due to the timing and precision on that one horse. To me, it's nearly certain that a large wager (maybe in the 15k to 20k variety) came in as they were loading into the gate.
If we all agree, or at least accept, this is the likely situation, then we move on to the next part of the argument.

If this was one wager, it could only be done by three different bettors:
1. Handicapper (like you and I)
2. Computer Program
3. Insider

This wasn't one handicapper just going off of past performances and chunking up 20k on this horse at 1 mn to post. No chance.

Computer Program is also not likely since those programs are designed to take the handicapping portion out of the equation and look for betting anomalies and bet horses who were outside of expected norms. There is no way a computer program identifies Runaway Ghost, from the 11 post, as value when all is said and done at under 4-1. No chance.

Insider. This is where the money came from. I would bet my life on this fact. The only person that could bet a horse like this, for that kind of money, knowing they were likely going to get a difficult trip, is someone who knew the chances of this horse losing were slim. How could someone know this? By knowing something about this horses' physical condition. Could be a breathing procedure that was done to open blocked airways, or, more likely, it could be some other procedure loosely defined under the "medical" umbrella.

Think about this....who would know the best way to circumvent getting caught doing something with this horse? A local.

I'm not saying this was something illegal being done. Although this game puts us in that mindset since we already know it happens daily across the country. My opinion is this horse was overbet by a large margin, that the money came from an insider connected to the horse and that it was due to something the horse had on Sunday that he hadn't had previously. When you combine that with the way he won, traveling dramatically wide the entire race (and the jockey never even considering tucking in, which he was probably told to make sure he doesn't get any traffic and go 7 wide if you have to) and the way he drew off in the lane, I call Bullshit on this race and this horse, and the absurd last minute betting backs me up.

thaskalos · 03-26-2018, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

The most puzzling part for me about Runaway Ghost is how he suddenly found the ability to rate off the pace and finish. Anybody that handicapped that is a freaking genius.

To be sure, PA-Mike and BCOURTNEY are WAY above average in the handicapping department.

thaskalos · 03-26-2018, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by storyline

There are many things to consider when handicapping a race and one of the things I pay attention to is how previous "figures" were earned.

#11 Runaway Ghost had been running against fields that were less competitive than 6 of the 12 runners, believe me that has some significance.

The raw fractions for the race were 45.80 - 1:10.27 and the horse is racing 6 wide into the 1st turn and down the backside, going 9f. Think about that, would you play this horse to win knowing this before the race?

I discounted his chances of winning precisely because he'd be wide running into a fast pace. I used him for 4th in the super knowing full well of any early speed advantage he had.

Anyone who thinks that horses like Runaway Ghost usually get this kind of play in races of this sort, obviously hasn't been paying much attention to this game.