Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE

[green80]

Originally Posted by depalma113

The winner of the Sundland Derby was 7-1 at the start of the race and 7/2 at the wire.

That's what I saw also. The Sunland Derby is a fairly big race with a decent handle. Did the odds fall on any other horse in the race like that? How are these guys always on the winner?

[cj]

Originally Posted by green80

That's what I saw also. The Sunland Derby is a fairly big race with a decent handle. Did the odds fall on any other horse in the race like that? How are these guys always on the winner?

The biggest money comes in very late, and it is also the smartest money. This has been going on for quite a while now.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, the best solution for players is exchange wagering. Then you know exactly what odds you are getting. I played on a exchange for a few years and it was a great experience. I wish I still had that option.

Now I try to be more systematic.

I try to look at double and pick 3 will pays and exacta probables because they often give you a clue as to where the win odds will go.

I know I do better when I set a minimum odds of 5/2 on my top selections. As long as I can weed out some of the shorter priced horses (which anyone can easily do), even if a few of them drop down below 5/2 in the last flash, I should be able to absorb the very tiny losses on those handful.

It's still a problem. It's even frustrating when you make a wager, expect 7/2, the horses loses, and he went off at 8/5 and you never would have made the play.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by depalma113

The winner of the Sundland Derby was 7-1 at the start of the race and 7/2 at the wire.

I can hear the roar of the crowd of new players rushing in to play this game.

Or is it the roar of the crowd of those saying SCREW IT and heading to the casinos?

No one is ever going to believe that people are not past posting, Perception is all that matters. You c an show me all the data and proof it is not happening and I will look at races like this and say, "Yeah, right."

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tom

I can hear the roar of the crowd of new players rushing in to play this game.

Or is it the roar of the crowd of those saying SCREW IT and heading to the casinos?

No one is ever going to believe that people are not past posting, Perception is all that matters. You c an show me all the data and proof it is not happening and I will look at races like this and say, "Yeah, right."

Yep, if you aren't going to change the current system, the sport is going to have to go to an exchange wagering format. The current way of doing things is unsustainable in my opinion. It looks terrible and bulk of the bettors are taking the short end of it. People are going to be the fish forever.

Asking the average joe to compete with guys that have programs pumping hundreds of bets in at the last second (at a much better price, no less) is just a bit too much. Yes, I know that anyone can do the same thing, but that kind of stuff isn't something most people can do, or want to do even if they could.

[Track Phantom]

The Sunland Derby ranks right up there with the strangest late betting I've ever seen. Runaway Ghost was 8-1 morning line and drew a wide post. The entire rest of the field was loaded with the who's who of training (Pletcher, Asmussen, O'Neill, Hollendorfer, etc). Anything trained by those guys is almost certainly going to get overplayed especially at a "smaller" track that gets to see these guys ship in once per year.

Runaway Ghost is a local who had lost at 2-5 in his most recent start, a prep called the Mine That Bird Derby. Nothing wrong with losing to a talented runner like Reride but that run doesn't inspire "favorite in the G3 Sunland Derby".

I was actually surprised to see him at 7-1. In fact, I tossed him into my bets after overlooking him just in case someone knew something.

Those thinking that computer bettors brought him down to 7-2 are smoking crack. At best, 7-1 was on the low end of where he belonged. No way does someone overbet this runner at 7-1 when there were 4-6 other runners already higher than they should have been. The computer betting should have knocked down one of the 15-1 shots that had drifted up.

Then you take into effect the actual running of the race. If I told you that Runaway Ghost was 6 wide on the first turn, running up near a 45.4 half and was 4 wide on the second turn, you would have said the rider was an imbecile. Runaway Ghost would have won by 6 lengths had Dream Baby Dream not rolled up for 2nd.

This betting had one thing tied to it....drugs. The people that bet this horse knew this horse was totally juiced to the gills and could not lose because of it. There is no other explanation for that betting. The trainer won 25% of his starts in 2017 from 412 starts. You don't do that with hay and water.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

The Sunland Derby ranks right up there with the strangest late betting I've ever seen. Runaway Ghost was 8-1 morning line and drew a wide post. The entire rest of the field was loaded with the who's who of training (Pletcher, Asmussen, O'Neill, Hollendorfer, etc). Anything trained by those guys is almost certainly going to get overplayed especially at a "smaller" track that gets to see these guys ship in once per year.

Runaway Ghost is a local who had lost at 2-5 in his most recent start, a prep called the Mine That Bird Derby. Nothing wrong with losing to a talented runner like Reride but that run doesn't inspire "favorite in the G3 Sunland Derby".

I was actually surprised to see him at 7-1. In fact, I tossed him into my bets after overlooking him just in case someone knew something.

Those thinking that computer bettors brought him down to 7-2 are smoking crack. At best, 7-1 was on the low end of where he belonged. No way does someone overbet this runner at 7-1 when there were 4-6 other runners already higher than they should have been. The computer betting should have knocked down one of the 15-1 shots that had drifted up.

Then you take into effect the actual running of the race. If I told you that Runaway Ghost was 6 wide on the first turn, running up near a 45.4 half and was 4 wide on the second turn, you would have said the rider was an imbecile. Runaway Ghost would have won by 6 lengths had Dream Baby Dream not rolled up for 2nd.

This betting had one thing tied to it....drugs. The people that bet this horse knew this horse was totally juiced to the gills and could not lose because of it. There is no other explanation for that betting. The trainer won 25% of his starts in 2017 from 412 starts. You don't do that with hay and water.

This is a total bullshit post. I can easily make a case where this horse should have been around 2-1, so I can easily see why they knocked his price down like they did, and it has zero to do with any speculation about something other than hay and water.

Of course I'm saying this in hindsight, because I didn't actually pick this horse as my winner of this race, but looking back, I can easily see why a few select, smart, well financed players knocked his price down from 7-1.

No crack pipe needed.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

This is a total bullshit post. I can easily make a case where this horse should have been around 2-1, so I can easily see why they knocked his price down like they did, and it has zero to do with any speculation about something other than hay and water.

Of course I'm saying this in hindsight, because I didn't actually pick this horse as my winner of this race, but looking back, I can easily see why a few select, smart, well financed players knocked his price down from 7-1.

No crack pipe needed.

I've watched 100,000 races in my life. I have a pretty good feel for where horses are typically going to land odds-wise. There is a rhythm to the betting. When that rhythm is off kilter, it gets my attention, especially in a big race where the pools are big enough to dilute some wackiness.

This isn't about picking this horse or thinking he has a chance to win, it's about the way the public bets these horses. The betting was completely opposite of where the public (not one or two expert handicappers like yourself) make this horse.

This is the problem with your comments. You can't get out of your own way to look at this objectively. You picking the horse has absolutely nothing to do with the betting patterns of this race. Even if you felt he had a "2-1 chance" to win the race, or could "see him at 2-1" doesn't matter. I'm sure you are smart enough to know that the collective money from the public doesn't make this horse 2-1. I'm sure you know that the "public" isn't going to locate this horse the way you did.

Computer betting is supposed to identify those horses who were not being bet relative to their chances. If you looked at the rest of this field, there were many horses who were higher than what their chances indicated. Those horses should have been bet, not Runaway Ghost. Unless, of course, you factor in handicapping which I'm told these programs aren't doing. They are strictly looking for anomalies in the pool. 7-1 on Runaway Ghost was not an anomaly in this race.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

They are strictly looking for anomalies in the pool. 7-1 on Runaway Ghost was not an anomaly in this race.

Exactly! And yes it was an anomaly....to the smart guys with all the toys.

And I didn't pick this horse. But I can see how their methods told them this horse in no way should be 7-1.

You want to see a real brain twister? Check out my thread about that race at Gulfstream a few days ago (the Uncle B race)...THAT would be a race where you could really sink your teeth....

[davew]

I went to BRISnet to see what kind of slug Runaway Ghost is. From their data, his last race with speed of 100 is highest of any race shown among all horses. The BRISnet Prime Power number is also highest and roughly 10 higher than the average. I did not see betting action, warm-up or loading, but his horse going off as favorite at 7/2 does not shock me.

[Robert Fischer]

at first glance I thought Runaway Ghost was a contender.

The local is often strong, and those were great pace numbers in the Mine That Bird Derby.

I got turned off watching the prep, because they went 1-2, and the winner wasn't exactly gassed from the pace, and RG was 2nd.

I could see the horse being 5 or 6-1 because of the public liking the local angle as well as the impressive pace numbers.

7/2 is beyond my estimation, but momentum and irrational odds can swing one way or another. I'd say he was a bad underlay, but he was MUCH the best in the actual race, so it's tough to say that.

The 7 Prince Lucky was one of the buzz horses and he almost flipped in the gate. I'm sure there were some cancels at that time. Still does not explain the gravitation to the 11.

Was 1 Big Bet a good portion of that money? Hard to figure

[storyline]

I agree with Track Phantom here as that was exactly my interpretation proceeding the race.

The same connections win both races.

Race 10
#10 GM Gage at 2 minutes before post is 18-1, goes off @ 11-1

Race 11
#11 Runaway Ghost at 2 minutes before post is 7-1, goes off @ 7/2

The DD combination of 10 / 11 is the lowest paying combination, really.


Below are number of runners and the winning post positions in brackets from Sunday.

R1 - 12 runners, winning post ()
R2 - 7 runners, winning post ()
R3 - 11 runners, winning post ()
R4 - 6 runners, winning post ()
R5 - 9 runners, winning post ()
R6 - 5 runners, winning post ()
R7 - 8 runners, winning post ()
R8 - 9 runners, winning post ()
R9 - 11 runners, winning post ()
R10 - 11 runners, winning post ()
R11 - 12 runners, winning post ()
R12 - 11 runners, winning post ()

Fairly safe to say you don't really want to draw outside when you're part of the speed and there's tons of speed inside. Sunland Park isn't the track you want to be drawn outside to begin with.

I had 6 horses that I gave a better chance of winning and this horse goes off as the favorite @ 7/2.

I don't often miss well intended runners but if they're chemically enhanced I have no chance, Sunday I had no chance

[Denny]

I agree with track phantom and storyline.

Anybody that thinks races are always on the level is delusional.

Shyst happens.

[thaskalos]

I am also in Track Phantom's camp on this one.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I am also in Track Phantom's camp on this one.

There are many things to consider when handicapping a race and one of the things I pay attention to is how previous "figures" were earned.

#11 Runaway Ghost had been running against fields that were less competitive than 6 of the 12 runners, believe me that has some significance.

The raw fractions for the race were 45.80 - 1:10.27 and the horse is racing 6 wide into the 1st turn and down the backside, going 9f. Think about that, would you play this horse to win knowing this before the race?

I discounted his chances of winning precisely because he'd be wide running into a fast pace. I used him for 4th in the super knowing full well of any early speed advantage he had.