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Old 05-20-2012, 01:15 AM   #1
menifee
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Pace and Speed Handicappers Egg On Their Face - Class Handicapping Always Wins

Before the KD, all I heard about was how weak the SA Derby was. Lowest speed figures - all the speed handicappers talked about how weak a race it was. Produced the Derby winner.

After the Kentucky Derby, all I heard about was how impressive Bodemeister was. The pace figures were incredible. Based on his pace figures, he couldn't lose this race. Bodemeister controls the pace in the Preakness - not pressed and I'll Have Another runs him down.

The fundamental problem with pace and speed handicapping is that speed and pace figures will always be man-made and fallible. Class does not lie.
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Old 05-20-2012, 01:21 AM   #2
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Please define class.
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Old 05-20-2012, 01:21 AM   #3
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I'm a pace guy and I liked IHA today. I guess that ends this thread.
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Old 05-20-2012, 01:22 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menifee
Before the KD, all I heard about was how weak the SA Derby was. Lowest speed figures - all the speed handicappers talked about how weak a race it was. Produced the Derby winner.

After the Kentucky Derby, all I heard about was how impressive Bodemeister was. The pace figures were incredible. Based on his pace figures, he couldn't lose this race. Bodemeister controls the pace in the Preakness - not pressed and I'll Have Another runs him down.

The fundamental problem with pace and speed handicapping is that speed and pace figures will always be man-made and fallible. Class does not lie.
Please explain what is "Class" when you are looking at improving 3 yr old horses..

I thought Class is aquired by winning multiple graded stakes against each other. I dont feel Bodemeister did bad any way..

Would you place Affirmed and Alydar is separate classes?

[ps: I am not a speed or class handicapper....actually I dont know what the hell I am doing .. ]
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Old 05-20-2012, 01:37 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iceknight
Please explain what is "Class" when you are looking at improving 3 yr old horses..

I thought Class is aquired by winning multiple graded stakes against each other. I dont feel Bodemeister did bad any way..

Would you place Affirmed and Alydar is separate classes?

[ps: I am not a speed or class handicapper....actually I dont know what the hell I am doing .. ]
Class Handicapper: Getting 3-1 on a horse that won the Lewis, SA Derby and Kentucky Derby.

Speed/Pace Handicapper: Betting a horse down to less than 2-1 because he ran a 108 Beyer in Oaklawn and ran a purportedly incredible pace in the Kentucky Derby.

Unreal.

Beyer two weeks ago after the Derby:

"This group of 3-year-olds appears even worse than the weak crops of 2011, 2010, and 2009, with the notable exception of Bodemeister, whose effort on Saturday was so good that the defeat didnít even sting Baffert."

Beyer now:

"He and Bodemeister both ran fast and trounced the rest of the field by almost nine lengths, erasing the impression that is a mediocre group of 3-year-olds."
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Old 05-20-2012, 01:43 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menifee
Class Handicapper: Getting 3-1 on a horse that won the Lewis, SA Derby and Kentucky Derby.

Speed/Pace Handicapper: Betting a horse down to less than 2-1 because he ran a 108 Beyer in Oaklawn and ran a purportedly incredible pace in the Kentucky Derby.

Unreal.

Beyer two weeks ago after the Derby:

"This group of 3-year-olds appears even worse than the weak crops of 2011, 2010, and 2009, with the notable exception of Bodemeister, whose effort on Saturday was so good that the defeat didnít even sting Baffert."

Beyer now:

"He and Bodemeister both ran fast and trounced the rest of the field by almost nine lengths, erasing the impression that is a mediocre group of 3-year-olds."
Yeah...you're right.

The "class" handicappers have all the money...
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Old 05-20-2012, 01:48 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by cj
I'm a pace guy and I liked IHA today. I guess that ends this thread.
I respect you greatly. But the fact that Beyer and nobody else appears to have revisited the SA Derby shows the problem with speed figs. They are man-made and not reliable.
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Old 05-20-2012, 01:52 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menifee
I respect you greatly. But the fact that Beyer and nobody else appears to have revisited the SA Derby shows the problem with speed figs. They are man-made and not reliable.
As opposed to class designations...which have divine origin and are infallible...
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Last edited by thaskalos; 05-20-2012 at 01:54 AM.
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Old 05-20-2012, 01:59 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menifee
I respect you greatly. But the fact that Beyer and nobody else appears to have revisited the SA Derby shows the problem with speed figs. They are man-made and not reliable.
Of course not, and neither is anything else, including class handicapping. I did revisit the race a few times. It could have been higher, but it is more likely IHA is just an improving animal that is also very versatile. It isn't like anyone else from that race has done anything.
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Old 05-20-2012, 02:03 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by cj
Of course not, and neither is anything else, including class handicapping. I did revisit the race a few times. It could have been higher, but it is more likely IHA is just an improving animal that is also very versatile. It isn't like anyone else from that race has done anything.
Exactly...

Speed AND class handicapping are on shaky ground when assessing the chances of fast-developing 3-year olds.

But we do the best with what we got...
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Old 05-20-2012, 02:27 AM   #11
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this is what makes this game great!

everyone has an ego and thinks that what they do is the not only the best way to do things, but its also the only way to skin a cat.

every form of handicapping has it great moments. it doesn't matter if you are a racing form and number handicapper, class handicapper, pedigree handicapper, or like myself a workout and conditioning handicapper.

i have learned that this game can humble you in about 2 seconds flat. it happens to me all the time.

the only thing that i can advise anyone no matter what form or forms of handicapping you might use, you must remain consistent.
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Old 05-20-2012, 02:28 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by lamboguy
the only thing that i can advise anyone no matter what form or forms of handicapping you might use, you must remain consistent.
...or even better, know when to use which methods.
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Old 05-20-2012, 02:37 AM   #13
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and what weight to give them
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Old 05-20-2012, 02:39 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menifee

The fundamental problem with pace and speed handicapping is that speed and pace figures will always be man-made and fallible. Class does not lie.
Just about every pace and speed handicapper I know thought that, except for the possibility that the Derby took too much out of Bode and IHA, it was probably going to be a two horse race.
As it turned out, it was a 2 horse race.
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Old 05-20-2012, 02:48 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyfox
Just about every pace and speed handicapper I know thought that, except for the possibility that the Derby took too much out of Bode and IHA, it was probably going to be a two horse race.
As it turned out, it was a 2 horse race.
So did every handicapper - that is why the exacta paid $18.60. Most speed handicappers and pace handicappers had Bodemeister.
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