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Old 10-03-2022, 12:52 PM   #76
GMB@BP
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You know my story by now.

The fractions and times of races obviously matter, especially when there's not a lot of information about the horses like maiden graduates and early ALW horses, but calculating figures is not science and the times to some extent are also a function of an extremely complex interrelationship between the individual horse, how the race developed, and the surface that day (actually that race because the surfaces change during the day). I tend to just look at whether the race was fast, slow, average for the class and to try understand the outcome better, not to separate the horses.
I have not played seriously in 10 years but thought I would mess around in Ky this fall then Oaklawn so I played last week using Beyer figures as the basis of the speed figure quotient of my handicapping. Next week I will try Timeform, and just come up with what works best.

To be clear I am talking about straight speed figures and not pace adjusted figures.
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Old 10-03-2022, 03:21 PM   #77
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I love this board. No sarcasm - we're here arguing about LIG's winning performance and how it compares to Flightline. As a longtime fan of the sport, it's welcome to be able to have these arguments about an upcoming race.

Flightline has run some otherworldly performances and seems like the obvious call. But he is 4 years old and has only run 5 times. These are living animals and not machines. Things happen.

He's not Dr. Fager, Damascus, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Forego, Spectacular Bid, etc., etc. Doesn't have the resume.

Hope he proves me wrong with a stunning performance in the Classic.
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Old 10-03-2022, 03:35 PM   #78
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Then why tell it again?
For the same reason I watch "Casablanca" every time it's on TV. I love it.

To me, understanding Life Is Good's performance is a pretty critical part of the odds line for the Classic. Earlier in the thread, I noted the probable logic that led to a 97 figure, but there were other ways of thinking about that race that are also at least reasonable.

And then again, we see a huge difference in figures.

As someone that has worked with multiple sets of figures for decades (and lost most of his hair because of it), I feel like I'm doing a public service to remind any remaining holdouts that figures are not some objective reality, even before you start subjectively thinking about the trip. I think that matters when it comes to comparisons of horses over time. That latter point is why I have a tough time letting go of the subject.

I understand why he was given a 97, but my "guess" is that LIG ran quite a bit faster than a 97. There's no way of knowing for sure. I could be wrong. But my odds line will reflect that he's basically the same horse he's been all along and hasn't taken a huge step back. He's very vulnerable at 10F either way, but if I'm crazy enough to pull the trigger against Flightline, I want a 100% fit and ready LIG to help set the race up for me.
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Old 10-03-2022, 05:00 PM   #79
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I love this board. No sarcasm - we're here arguing about LIG's winning performance and how it compares to Flightline. As a longtime fan of the sport, it's welcome to be able to have these arguments about an upcoming race.

Flightline has run some otherworldly performances and seems like the obvious call. But he is 4 years old and has only run 5 times. These are living animals and not machines. Things happen.

He's not Dr. Fager, Damascus, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Forego, Spectacular Bid, etc., etc. Doesn't have the resume.

Hope he proves me wrong with a stunning performance in the Classic.
You can compare talent versus resume, they are apples and oranges. If we just use resume just about every horse the last 30 years, except a very few (mostly female) would never be in same breath as horses from say 1900-1999, and we know that is not the reality.
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Old 10-03-2022, 06:11 PM   #80
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You can compare talent versus resume, they are apples and oranges. If we just use resume just about every horse the last 30 years, except a very few (mostly female) would never be in same breath as horses from say 1900-1999, and we know that is not the reality.
Good stuff! Agreed re accomplishment v. potential.

Which current horses have run other-worldly performances? Flightline is in the conversation.

American Pharoah joined the crowd back in 2015, to my mind, but he never had to haul the freight like some of the all-timers.
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Old 10-03-2022, 07:00 PM   #81
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You can compare talent versus resume, they are apples and oranges. If we just use resume just about every horse the last 30 years, except a very few (mostly female) would never be in same breath as horses from say 1900-1999, and we know that is not the reality.
However, in the list of horses that he mentioned, arguably each have a number of better races than all of Flightline's races, save likely the Pacific Classic. Throw Alydar in that list as well. This is no knock on Flightline, he's a monster, but that's quite a group of horses.
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Old 10-03-2022, 09:30 PM   #82
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However, in the list of horses that he mentioned, arguably each have a number of better races than all of Flightline's races, save likely the Pacific Classic. Throw Alydar in that list as well. This is no knock on Flightline, he's a monster, but that's quite a group of horses.
I would agree, just dont understand how one can state, unequivitable, that he is "not" those horses in terms of ability, certainly you can on accomplishment.

What does he have to do in terms of ability to show he is on equal terms as far ability to those other horses?

Honestly what's his worst race, the Met Mile? He is dusting very good horses in very fast times.
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Old 10-03-2022, 10:54 PM   #83
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I would agree, just dont understand how one can state, unequivitable, that he is "not" those horses in terms of ability, certainly you can on accomplishment.

What does he have to do in terms of ability to show he is on equal terms as far ability to those other horses?

Honestly what's his worst race, the Met Mile? He is dusting very good horses in very fast times.
He has to prove that he belongs in that category, and he hasn't done that. It's not about saying he isn't....it's about saying unequivocally that he is.

Ghostzapper didn't have a lot of starts, but his loss in the King's Bishop, his Vosburgh win, his Iselin, his Woodward, his BC Classic, and finally his Met Mile eclipses Flightline.

Was Formal Gold an all time great? His Iselin and Woodward sure looked all time great. Arguably, he ran more great races than Flightline.

Perspective.
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Old 10-03-2022, 11:04 PM   #84
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He has to prove that he belongs in that category, and he hasn't done that. It's not about saying he isn't....it's about saying unequivocally that he is.

Ghostzapper didn't have a lot of starts, but his loss in the King's Bishop, his Vosburgh win, his Iselin, his Woodward, his BC Classic, and finally his Met Mile eclipses Flightline.

Was Formal Gold an all time great? His Iselin and Woodward sure looked all time great. Arguably, he ran more great races than Flightline.

Perspective.
i havent heard anyone claim he is yet in the same class as those horses, at least not ones that are sane.
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Old 10-03-2022, 11:13 PM   #85
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i havent heard anyone claim he is yet in the same class as those horses, at least not ones that are sane.
Wasn't the Hovdey/Paulick "he's better than Spectacular Bid" article discussed here?
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Old 10-04-2022, 12:03 AM   #86
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Wasn't the Hovdey/Paulick "he's better than Spectacular Bid" article discussed here?
I didnt see that, but thanks for the laugh.
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Old 10-04-2022, 08:55 AM   #87
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He's as good as any horse that ever lived.


Having an opinion is one thing but I get the feeling like some of you think you have an obligation to protect racing history by diminishing Flightline.
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Old 10-04-2022, 10:28 AM   #88
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He has to prove that he belongs in that category, and he hasn't done that. It's not about saying he isn't....it's about saying unequivocally that he is.

Ghostzapper didn't have a lot of starts, but his loss in the King's Bishop, his Vosburgh win, his Iselin, his Woodward, his BC Classic, and finally his Met Mile eclipses Flightline.

Was Formal Gold an all time great? His Iselin and Woodward sure looked all time great. Arguably, he ran more great races than Flightline.

Perspective.
I'd only say the races Ghostzapper ran at a mile+ trump what Flightline has done so far, and obviously that comes with the caveat that Flightline is still racing. If he devastates the field in the Classic, the comparison to Ghostzapper is more than valid. If he retired today, it is still a fun comparison to what "might have been" for Flightline.

What sucks is that there isn't a horse that can touch Flightline, there's no Saint Liam types lurking around nor are there any Pleasantly Perfect's because the field Ghostzapper beat in the Classic was possibly the greatest Classic field ever.
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Old 10-04-2022, 11:23 AM   #89
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I am firmly in the camp that thinks you have to compare horses from different eras based on their accomplishments, the accomplishments of the horses they were beating, how consistently great they were, whether they showed other worldly brilliance and stamina and won despite tough trips etc.. Judgements about prior horses and their accomplishments "could" be wrong, but imo their speed figures are a 100% certainly to not be comparable and should be discarded except for comparisons between horses that raced within a few years of each other (for so many clear cut reasons I lose track of them all).

To me, Flightline has a lot more to prove. I'm in the camp that thinks even his Pacific Class was probably surface aided. He certainly didn't beat any world beaters in the Met and prior races. What he is so far is an exceptionally brilliant horse that has yet to show what's really in the tank. There may be plenty, but I'd like to see it before crowing him.
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Old 10-04-2022, 11:41 AM   #90
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He's as good as any horse that ever lived.


Having an opinion is one thing but I get the feeling like some of you think you have an obligation to protect racing history by diminishing Flightline.
Ironically, the people keeping their feet on the ground and looking at the horse objectively are charged with bias while the person doing the charging can only offer throw-away hyperbole to describe the horse in question. Good stuff.

Same thing happened in the Zenyatta threads on here.

Someone else just described Flightline as "dusting very good horses in very fast times" which is a good synopsis to launch a discussion of the horse. Personally, I would argue about the caliber of horse he's been beating.

One question that ought to be answered is how come when horses like Dr. Fager, Swaps, Spectacular Bid, and Secretariat won their races, they didn't just run "very fast times", they actually broke stakes/track/course/world records?

Flightline came close to tying the stakes (and track) record for 10f in the Pacific Classic...a race that is barely 30 years old and carded at a distance rarely run at the track (i.e., conditions ripe for an all-timer to shatter a record).
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