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Old 10-02-2022, 05:32 PM   #61
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Anybody that enters a horse in the Classic has that concern.

I don't get why Taiba, Epicenter, Hot Rod Charlie, Rich Strike, Country Grammer, Olympiad, or any other horse 'fits' any better than Life Is Good.
i doubt the betting does either, LIG will be a solid second choice with everyone else likely double digits.
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Old 10-02-2022, 05:46 PM   #62
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i doubt the betting does either, LIG will be a solid second choice with everyone else likely double digits.
American Pharoah was 7/10 when he romped.

Flightline gonna be 3/5? Less?
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Old 10-02-2022, 05:52 PM   #63
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American Pharoah was 7/10 when he romped.

Flightline gonna be 3/5? Less?
flight line 2/5

LIG 5/1

everyone else likely 10/1 and up
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Old 10-02-2022, 06:53 PM   #64
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i doubt the betting does either, LIG will be a solid second choice with everyone else likely double digits.
Over Epicenter and Taiba?

Unlikely.
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Old 10-02-2022, 07:37 PM   #65
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Over Epicenter and Taiba?

Unlikely.
will be interesting, the resume for LIG is just much better than those two. Epicenter is a nice horse but hasnt beaten nearly as good of horses, and Taiba isnt close to Flightline or LIG in my book.
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Old 10-02-2022, 07:49 PM   #66
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Over Epicenter and Taiba?

Unlikely.
The race everybody has been waiting for to see between Flightline and LIG for nearly a year, and you think a couple 3YOs that didn't win a Triple Crown race are gonna take more money than a 9 for 11 3 time G1 winner at Classic distances Life Is Good won't be 2nd favorite?

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Old 10-02-2022, 09:31 PM   #67
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will be interesting, the resume for LIG is just much better than those two. Epicenter is a nice horse but hasnt beaten nearly as good of horses, and Taiba isnt close to Flightline or LIG in my book.
Lot of pace guys out there aren't going to give LIG any shot. I'm one of them.
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Old 10-02-2022, 09:39 PM   #68
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Lot of pace guys out there aren't going to give LIG any shot. I'm one of them.
I dont give any of them a shot, I would be riding for place money, its pretty good.
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Old 10-02-2022, 09:46 PM   #69
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I dont give any of them a shot, I would be riding for place money, its pretty good.
Certainly possible, we see that a lot these days. Knicks Go in the Pegasus springs to mind right away, Medina Spirit in the Classic too.
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Old 10-03-2022, 10:26 AM   #70
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Pretty big difference between the Beyer and TimformUS figure for Life Is Good.

97 vs. 128 (126 adjusted for pace).
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Old 10-03-2022, 10:44 AM   #71
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Old 10-03-2022, 10:54 AM   #72
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I can't see Pletcher taking back and riding for place money in that race. When Life Is Good was at his sharpest he outran Jackie's Warrior. This is a ridiculously fast horse that's great out of the gate.

The reason I didn't like the prep was his main weapon is amazing sprint speed that stretches. I don't see why you'd want to dull that at all.

Assuming LIG breaks as well as he usually does, imo he's going to clear Flightline, at least early.

What happens from there is dependent on whether Flightline starts pulling or settles well in a very close stalking position. If you are on Flightline I think you want to wait to engage until the 2nd turn when LIG may not be able resist well. If you engage too soon, that's when you put yourself in the position of winning the battle but losing the war because LIG will still have plenty of speed and energy left in the tank to resist for awhile.

What makes this speed matchup so interesting is that usually the fastest horse is also the best horse. So there's no decision. You just go. The 2nd and 3rd best speeds have to decide whether to potentially commit suicide chasing a faster better horse or to run for a piece of the purse.

In this case, at least imo, the fastest horse is not the best horse so it gets a little tricky for both of them.

IMO, if LIG takes back off Flightline, he's not going to finish 2nd. I think he has to go and hope Flighline doesn't have another day like the Pacific Classic.

I don't care how much better Flightline is than LIG, to clear him early he's going to have run very fast unless LIG is not the same horse he was or gets out badly. That's when the door would open a crack to someone catching him.
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Old 10-03-2022, 11:16 AM   #73
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Pretty big difference between the Beyer and TimformUS figure for Life Is Good.

97 vs. 128 (126 adjusted for pace).
been looking at Beyer figures and timeform figures daily at CD the past month, man its like two different worlds at time.
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Old 10-03-2022, 11:37 AM   #74
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been looking at Beyer figures and timeform figures daily at CD the past month, man its like two different worlds at time.
You know my story by now.

The fractions and times of races obviously matter, especially when there's not a lot of information about the horses like maiden graduates and early ALW horses, but calculating figures is not science and the times to some extent are also a function of an extremely complex interrelationship between the individual horse, how the race developed, and the surface that day (actually that race because the surfaces change during the day). I tend to just look at whether the race was fast, slow, average for the class and to try understand the outcome better, not to separate the horses.
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Old 10-03-2022, 11:43 AM   #75
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You know my story by now.
Then why tell it again?
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