Stockman article on Economy coming collapse

[JustRalph]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/op...pagewanted=all

Surprised nobody is talking about this yet.

I am not a big fan of Stockman because in recent years he has tended to write like he is bitter and hates everybody.

But I think for his new book he is getting much more right than wrong. I don't find much to disagree with in this article either.

If I had kids in the 14-21 age group I might sit them down and explain the new reality they face. I couldn't imagine how it would go though............

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/op...pagewanted=all

Surprised nobody is talking about this yet.

I am not a big fan of Stockman because in recent years he has tended to write like he is bitter and hates everybody.

But I think for his new book he is getting much more right than wrong. I don't find much to disagree with in this article either.

If I had kids in the 14-21 age group I might sit them down and explain the new reality they face. I couldn't imagine how it would go though............

I've been posting THAT since 2007...the FED is EVIL...both party's CORRUPT...bout time you got your head outta the sand...

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

... he has tended to write like he is bitter and hates everybody.

...

You got that right.

I agree with you on this one. Really, a pretty darn good, exhaustive rant from top to bottom. I'm so generally sick of reading anything about economic theory that I rarely can make it from top to bottom, but this kept me going- so thanks.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Surprised nobody is talking about this yet.

Even more surprising that it took you so long to bring it up.

[jdhanover]

Not going to opine on the whole (there are valid points and counter arguments). but he is very wrong on one point. He states there was essentially no chance of collapse in 2007. I know he is wrong here. In my job I come across a number of CEOs etc and there was a very significant concern that the banking system was going to collapse. This is not say whether or not bailouts were the right thing but the potential for financial Armageddon was VERY real. If the public lost confidence in the banking system, then 'fugehdaboudit'. Of course that could yet happen but to say it wasn't possible in 2007 is very wrong. IMO

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Even more surprising that it took you so long to bring it up.

Been a busy day, my normal reading schedule has been interrupted quite often lately. I am having some health problems mostly related to my vision. Lots of Doctor visits and allergy work ups etc. lots of wasted time really. The end result is tolerable now, but I have to be careful not to overdue it.

I have had to cut back some.

You guys get sick of me anyway.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/op...pagewanted=all

Surprised nobody is talking about this yet.

I am not a big fan of Stockman because in recent years he has tended to write like he is bitter and hates everybody.

But I think for his new book he is getting much more right than wrong. I don't find much to disagree with in this article either.

If I had kids in the 14-21 age group I might sit them down and explain the new reality they face. I couldn't imagine how it would go though............

If you're smart, you would pull all but your monthly operating expenses out of your bank account(s). When things get really ugly, so will the government.

Boxcar

[NJ Stinks]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Been a busy day, my normal reading schedule has been interrupted quite often lately. I am having some health problems mostly related to my vision. Lots of Doctor visits and allergy work ups etc. lots of wasted time really. The end result is tolerable now, but I have to be careful not to overdue it.

Sorry to hear you are having eye problems, Ralph.

I hope everything improves soon.

[Robert Goren]

Ralph, you should restrict your reading to only important things like the Form.

[pandy]

Interesting editorial. I like that he throws both Republicans and Democrats under the bus, although he left out Bill Clinton and his role in the real estate bubble, expanding Jimmy Carter's Community Reinvestment Act, which, along with the Greenspan low interest rates greatly contributed to the current economic mess. Nafta also isn't mentioned and NAFTA cost us millions of jobs.

[lamboguy]

anyone that follows the fibornacci mathematical expansion contraction theory will totally agree with Stockman. anything that moves in a 1-1.618 expansion-contraction calls for an immediate reversal. if that doesn't happen you will get a crash and burn at some point. the s+p has gone almost in a straight line form the bottom of 666 to over 1500 so far. we have moved to far and to fast to sustain this expansion now and the clock is ticking. unlike the s+p, gold has acted perfectly having many corrections on its move up.

there will be trouble in river city that awaits all of us at some point.

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

anyone that follows the fibornacci mathematical expansion contraction theory will totally agree with Stockman. anything that moves in a 1-1.618 expansion-contraction calls for an immediate reversal. if that doesn't happen you will get a crash and burn at some point. the s+p has gone almost in a straight line form the bottom of 666 to over 1500 so far. we have moved to far and to fast to sustain this expansion now and the clock is ticking. unlike the s+p, gold has acted perfectly having many corrections on its move up.

there will be trouble in river city that awaits all of us at some point.

I don't which market you've been watching but mine saw a flash crash in 2010 which eventually took the market down 15%. In 2011 there was another near crash which took the market down 20%, and, in the process, broke not only the 200sma, but the 500 and the 1000. In 2012, the 200sma was broken twice, once in the Spring, and again in the Fall, following the election.

That's a lot of trend breaks for four years.

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by jdhanover

Not going to opine on the whole (there are valid points and counter arguments). but he is very wrong on one point. He states there was essentially no chance of collapse in 2007. I know he is wrong here. In my job I come across a number of CEOs etc and there was a very significant concern that the banking system was going to collapse. This is not say whether or not bailouts were the right thing but the potential for financial Armageddon was VERY real. If the public lost confidence in the banking system, then 'fugehdaboudit'. Of course that could yet happen but to say it wasn't possible in 2007 is very wrong. IMO

There's really only one danger: a currency collapse. IMO, the whole treasury bailout was a dog and pony show, as the fed had the tools (the printing press/keyboard) to backstop any financial market and to buy all of the bad assets from any financial institution, as evidenced by qe1, qe2...

They chose not to do this en masse in 2008 for fear of what it might do to the dollar.

[PaceAdvantage]

Too many people are expecting this market to fall. That only means one thing.

Lift the offer! BIG!

With the VIX at 12 or less, I can't believe I'm even typing this. BUT, everyone can't be right...and EVERYONE seems to be cautious...although there have been a few "name" analysts who recently converted from the bear to the bull side.

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Too many people are expecting this market to fall. That only means one thing.

Lift the offer! BIG!

With the VIX at 12 or less, I can't believe I'm even typing this. BUT, everyone can't be right...and EVERYONE seems to be cautious...although there have been a few "name" analysts who recently converted from the bear to the bull side.

As long as the Fed prints...fundamentals don't matter...of course you know this by now...up, up and UP

How quick will THE insider's know when the FED is about to reverse course...what will you see to foreshadow...and how much time...24 hrs...12 hrs...2 hrs...of after hours on a Fri. holiday week-end when it's TOO late for THE small guy....