Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 11-07-2022, 02:50 PM   #16
metro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 373
Taking nothing away from LIG but, how much of that early pace of the Classic was wind aided though? At the very least the first 1/4, and likely the first 3/8ths. Compare that to the Dirt Mile where the first 1/4 was into the clubhouse turn and the second 1/4 was into a headwind on the backstretch.
metro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2022, 03:23 PM   #17
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 109,301
I don't a hurricane couls account for a 174 pace rating.

Maybe Thorograph gave it a 97?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2022, 03:30 PM   #18
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 19,137
Quote:
Originally Posted by metro View Post
Taking nothing away from LIG but, how much of that early pace of the Classic was wind aided though? At the very least the first 1/4, and likely the first 3/8ths. Compare that to the Dirt Mile where the first 1/4 was into the clubhouse turn and the second 1/4 was into a headwind on the backstretch.
I wasn't there to observe the wind. But even if you don't fully trust a pace figure because of wind or some other reason, it's clear they were going ridiculously fast by how much they opened up on the rest of the field. Horses like Hot Rod Charlie and even Olympiad have "near front runner" type speed in high caliber routes and they got left in the dust early.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-07-2022 at 03:32 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2022, 06:32 PM   #19
metro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 373
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I wasn't there to observe the wind. But even if you don't fully trust a pace figure because of wind or some other reason, it's clear they were going ridiculously fast by how much they opened up on the rest of the field. Horses like Hot Rod Charlie and even Olympiad have "near front runner" type speed in high caliber routes and they got left in the dust early.
I wasnít there either but watched the Keeneland feed most of the day, they eluded to it several times. Want to say between 30-40 mph most of the day. Headwind on the backside, tailwind in the stretch. Thatís significant and certainly assisted the time that LIG ran that first 1/4 straight to the first turn.

The wind affected other races more so in trips too, namely the Distaff where somehow Irad Ortiz thought it was okay to go 4 to 5 wide down the backside into it with NestÖ. without cover. Brilliant! No wonder she was cooked by the time she hit the top of the stretch.
metro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2022, 07:34 PM   #20
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 19,137
Quote:
Originally Posted by metro View Post
The wind affected other races more so in trips too, namely the Distaff where somehow Irad Ortiz thought it was okay to go 4 to 5 wide down the backside into it with NestÖ. without cover. Brilliant! No wonder she was cooked by the time she hit the top of the stretch.
I thought a few horses got torched a bit moving too soon or while too wide in that race. I think the race was hotter than it looks.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2022, 08:00 PM   #21
JustRalph
Just another Facist
 
JustRalph's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 50,271
Quote:
Originally Posted by rastajenk View Post
Who's being critical? None here that I can see (except maybe CJ on Gunnite )
I am. I think ďa two time Breeders cup mile winnerĒ sounds pretty good.

But I also get thatís not a classic distance, wonít really mean much in the shed etc.
__________________
WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET
JustRalph is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2022, 08:25 PM   #22
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,208
Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph View Post
I am. I think ďa two time Breeders cup mile winnerĒ sounds pretty good.

But I also get thatís not a classic distance, wonít really mean much in the shed etc.
We already had one of those in Goldencents, so they had a pretty good idea if it was worth it or not.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2022, 08:30 PM   #23
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 6,938
If they were going to run Life is Good in a race other than the Classic, the Sprint would have been perfect. He would have thrashed that group.
the little guy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2022, 08:40 PM   #24
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,208
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
If they were going to run Life is Good in a race other than the Classic, the Sprint would have been perfect. He would have thrashed that group.
There were several on the card that would have to be honest. Not sure what has happened to our sprinters, but they stink. Are too many trying to be turned into distance horses?
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2022, 09:37 PM   #25
Wiley
Horse Racing Connossieur
 
Wiley's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Michigan
Posts: 673
Quote:
Originally Posted by metro View Post
I wasnít there either but watched the Keeneland feed most of the day, they eluded to it several times. Want to say between 30-40 mph most of the day. Headwind on the backside, tailwind in the stretch. Thatís significant and certainly assisted the time that LIG ran that first 1/4 straight to the first turn.
I was there Saturday on the rail around the mile finish line for most all of the day. From our vantage point, I would say their was a pretty constant hard wind in the 20 mile per hour range and then big random gusts of maybe up to 40 mph which popped up quite often during the day. The wind got stronger to me as the day went by and it was strong during the running of the Classic.

I think you have it right for the wind effect on the days races. Had a great time and hit a few races to make it a productive weekend, keeping the wind factor in mind for my picks.

Flightline looked about the same, great!, going by in front of us both times. Amazing horse and run.

Sorry that Epicenter got injured in the race. On track, I didn't hear anything on why he did not finish, had to find out later when we got back to the place we were staying. Physically, he looked great to me pre race and I thought he might run a big race.
Wiley is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2022, 11:31 PM   #26
JustRalph
Just another Facist
 
JustRalph's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 50,271
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
If they were going to run Life is Good in a race other than the Classic, the Sprint would have been perfect. He would have thrashed that group.
I guess that would be a negative in the Breeding shed? I donít know enough about it, but Iím guessing nobody wants a great sprinter?
__________________
WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET
JustRalph is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2022, 11:38 PM   #27
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,755
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
There were several on the card that would have to be honest. Not sure what has happened to our sprinters, but they stink. Are too many trying to be turned into distance horses?
The dirt sprint used to have a full field just about every year...now it feels like 70% of races are sprints and we cant find more than 8 or 9 and some of those had no prayer.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-08-2022, 10:37 AM   #28
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 19,137
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
There were several on the card that would have to be honest. Not sure what has happened to our sprinters, but they stink. Are too many trying to be turned into distance horses?
I posted some data a year or two ago that looked at the 10 best winning Beyer figures every year by category going all the way back to when they were started in DRF. The averages were remarkably consistent. There would be an occasional good or bad year but it would eventually mean revert.

It suggested horses suddenly started earning lower figures the same year as the Big Brown steroid controversy (which was followed by no more steroids the next year). The sprinters dropped more than the routers (which I think makes sense). That's far from proof, but it's quite a coincidence.

I don't buy the stretch out idea. Trainers have always tried to stretch horses out because there's more prestige and money routing. If anything it used to be worse because the young sprinters used to be able to qualify for the Derby off some of their early form. Now with races like the Derby out of the question they drop back to sprinting faster.

The field would have looked a bit better if Jack Christopher stayed in and Gunite chose the right race.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-08-2022 at 10:41 AM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-11-2022, 06:34 PM   #29
burnsy
self medicated
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 2,955
What to people want ? Flightline in a one horse field ? Cause if they all cowered to another race . Thatís what it would of been . Then the belly aching would of never ceased . The BC Classic is where you put up or shut up if you have a top horse . Now, thereís blame attached to taking a chance and sportsmanship? Damned if you do , damned if you donít
burnsy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-11-2022, 07:59 PM   #30
thespaah
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,409
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Life is Good already won the BC Mile. It would have devalued him to run there again. They could have retired him. They took their shot. I'm sort of surprised that people would now criticize them when it seems that mostly we criticize connections for not taking chances.

Earlier this year, when Knicks Go basically conceded the Pegasus to Life Is Good, they got blasted by many for doing it. Now, when a horse flaunts his talents in the opposite manner, people are also being critical. So which is it?
I think this falls into the category of "wanting to have it both ways"..
thespaah is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:29 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2022 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.