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Old 09-09-2022, 09:59 AM   #316
Andy Asaro
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Old 09-09-2022, 10:00 AM   #317
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I think it's somewhat important for this horse to run at least a few more times in order to seal some special place in racing history. On the plus side, he ran a race like this in only his 5th start. That suggests his best may be yet to come even though this performance came well into his 4yo season.

On the negative side we've all seen very good horses put up a few spectacular figures that in hindsight look highly suspect (potentially inflated off track figure, light shower just prior to the race that may have changed the track speed, multiple tops in the race that were never duplicated, potentially bias enhanced etc..).

There have also been some very good horses that got extremely sharp for 2-3 races and then went back to being just very good.

IMO, since the PC came on track very conducive to a horse like him putting up a big number, I think he needs a few more just to kind of verify how sustainably good he is.
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Old 09-09-2022, 10:04 AM   #318
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think it's somewhat important for this horse to run at least a few more times in order to seal some special place in racing history. On the plus side, he ran a race like this in only his 5th start. That suggests his best may be yet to come even though this performance came well into his 4yo season.

On the negative side we've all seen very good horses put up a few spectacular figures that in hindsight look highly suspect (potentially inflated off track figure, light shower just prior to the race that may have changed the track speed, multiple tops in the race that were never duplicated, potentially bias enhanced etc..).

There have also been some very good horses that got extremely sharp for 2-3 races and then went back to being just very good.

IMO, since the PC came on track very conducive to a horse like him putting up a big number, I think he needs a few more just to kind of verify how sustainably good he is.
Everyone thinks he should run more to prove himself. We'll see if he runs next year which is more likely than not according to his owner Hronis.

What cracks me up is that last year he had problems with his feet but a lot of people were knocking them for not running in the Breeders's Cup sprint. The Owner/Trainer have always known what they had.
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Old 09-09-2022, 10:21 AM   #319
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Here's the thing. You assign Flightline some number. After assigning that number, how the hell do you test it? Do you have a database of 19 length winners in major stakes races who ran super-fast times and beat Grade I horses to compare the performance with? Do you know whether they run the same figure twice?
Here's the tricky part.

Anyone that has studied pace or race flow carefully knows that when there is a very dominant front runner in the race it can impact how the other horses in the race run. While he's cruising up front they are being used to stay with him or try to close the gap. IMO, there's no exact formula for that. It's horse/surface specific. You know the horse that won by 19+ freaked, but you can't tell by how much because the horses behind him probably didn't run as fast as they normally do.

Making a projection off a race like that then becomes problematical.

What you can do is assume the track didn't change speeds and look at the sprints and other route that day for track speed. But that can get dangerous also, especially for a feature race at an infrequently run distance because they often work on the track prior to a major stake.

And you are right, you imo CANNOT test it.

If the horses that ran behind him come back and run their typical figures next time that does not verify that they ran those same figures in the Pacific Classic because the pace/flow conditions will be a lot different if they aren't chasing a horse like Flightline.
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Old 09-09-2022, 01:52 PM   #320
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All these statements about "I came close to making it faster" and "it could have been faster" are concessions that in fact there's nothing being statistically measured here because there's no way to test the results. It's just guesswork.
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Old 09-09-2022, 02:40 PM   #321
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All these statements about "I came close to making it faster" and "it could have been faster" are concessions that in fact there's nothing being statistically measured here because there's no way to test the results. It's just guesswork.
This is exactly why I stuck to the same methods I always use to get a 152. Well, my assistant did to be more accurate, but that makes it even better. I'd have done the same thing.

But I do understand the other side of it. I"ve never seen anything like this race from a figure making standpoint. It was tempting to be a little conservative after seeing the number.
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Old 09-09-2022, 02:44 PM   #322
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Very, very few races have run up that is measured and reported accurately by racetracks. A few are good, more than a few are reasonably close, and many are not.

For this reason, I would never, ever use run up as part of the calculations of the speed figure making process. I consider rough values as part of making the variant after I verify them with my eyes, but nothing beyond that.
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Old 09-10-2022, 01:45 PM   #323
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This is exactly why I stuck to the same methods I always use to get a 152. Well, my assistant did to be more accurate, but that makes it even better. I'd have done the same thing.

But I do understand the other side of it. I"ve never seen anything like this race from a figure making standpoint. It was tempting to be a little conservative after seeing the number.

How do your figures compare to Beyers, are they a certain percentage higher or does it vary a lot? The reason I asked is he used his latest methods and gave Secretariat a 139 for the 1973 Belmont. Wondering how Flightline compared to that. What did Flightline get on the Beyer scale?
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Old 09-10-2022, 04:08 PM   #324
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How do your figures compare to Beyers, are they a certain percentage higher or does it vary a lot? The reason I asked is he used his latest methods and gave Secretariat a 139 for the 1973 Belmont. Wondering how Flightline compared to that. What did Flightline get on the Beyer scale?
TVG Pacific Classic S. (G1)
Del Mar Dirt - Fast
Purse: $1,000,500 1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up
Winner: Flightline Sire: Tapit Beyer: 126 Time: 1:59.28
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Old 09-10-2022, 05:04 PM   #325
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How do your figures compare to Beyers, are they a certain percentage higher or does it vary a lot? The reason I asked is he used his latest methods and gave Secretariat a 139 for the 1973 Belmont. Wondering how Flightline compared to that. What did Flightline get on the Beyer scale?
On average, about 20 points higher. Obviously it can vary race to race of course, like here.
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Old 11-04-2022, 09:56 AM   #326
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The Athletic published a piece on Flightline today


https://theathletic.com/3755295/2022...e-fastest-ever
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Old 11-04-2022, 10:33 AM   #327
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
All these statements about "I came close to making it faster" and "it could have been faster" are concessions that in fact there's nothing being statistically measured here because there's no way to test the results. It's just guesswork.
It’s somewhere in between . It’s not totally guesswork . But almost like weather predictions. They can easily mean absolutely nothing at times. That’s reality. The problem with sticking to one formula or trying to “live” off of it. You’re just limiting your ability and potential. There are “judgment” calls you have to be willing to make . I actually had someone on here tell me it’s ridiculous to judge or use an educated guess at the pace of a race. I asked how they did it ? They look at the final number and that’s their opinion. Great ! Good luck with that ! The converse is also true. Sometimes a horse runs a really fast pace …… never comes eye to eye with a competitor and runs the field off their feet by open lengths. That leads to all this talk about raising the number . Everyone is prone to bias, I try to limit it as much as possible. Sometimes I get the impression that some of these handicappers and figure makers get caught up in “fandom “ and don’t really realize it . The true test for this horse will be tomorrow. If he runs off, you’ll know for sure he’s that good .

Last edited by burnsy; 11-04-2022 at 10:35 AM.
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Old 11-04-2022, 12:33 PM   #328
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It’s somewhere in between . It’s not totally guesswork . But almost like weather predictions. They can easily mean absolutely nothing at times. That’s reality. The problem with sticking to one formula or trying to “live” off of it. You’re just limiting your ability and potential. There are “judgment” calls you have to be willing to make . I actually had someone on here tell me it’s ridiculous to judge or use an educated guess at the pace of a race. I asked how they did it ? They look at the final number and that’s their opinion. Great ! Good luck with that ! The converse is also true. Sometimes a horse runs a really fast pace …… never comes eye to eye with a competitor and runs the field off their feet by open lengths. That leads to all this talk about raising the number . Everyone is prone to bias, I try to limit it as much as possible. Sometimes I get the impression that some of these handicappers and figure makers get caught up in “fandom “ and don’t really realize it . The true test for this horse will be tomorrow. If he runs off, you’ll know for sure he’s that good .
Sure, but that's really my point. Since the best performances almost by definition don't have a database of comparators from which to generate sound statistical conclusions, it really doesn't matter what the speed figure charts say. You did not need Andy Beyer, at all, to figure out that Secretariat ran out of his skull in the Belmont, and at the end of the day Beyer's system wasn't designed to measure and cannot accurately measure performances like that.

A completely innumerate, sight handicapper can accurately tell you how good Flightline's performances have been this year. There's really no reason to worry about a number that is effectively a guess says- all you need to do is look.
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Old 11-04-2022, 01:51 PM   #329
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It will be a fun race to watch. When a horse wins by over 10 lengths, you never know how much faster they could have ran.
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Old 11-04-2022, 07:48 PM   #330
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Serious question... what are the actual odds of a jockey falling off his mount?
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